Saturday’s slate went really well. These past weeks have been amazing for yours truly, and I feel like I have a great read on how these lineups and rotations are playing out. Sunday slates are always one of my favorites of the week, too, and it has been excited to keep rolling here. There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s get started with the pitching!
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Saturday’s slate went really well. These past weeks have been amazing for yours truly, and I feel like I have a great read on how these lineups and rotations are playing out. Sunday slates are always one of my favorites of the week, too, and it has been excited to keep rolling here. There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s get started with the pitching!
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Starting Pitcher Strategy
We had many of the backend pitchers on Saturday, but that’s certainly not the case for this Sunday slate. This looks like an Opening Day card, with numerous top-end arms toeing the rubber for the respective teams. The good news is that this is a Sunday, which always leads to more value from a hitting perspective. That will have us pay up for the pitchers and find cheap players for our position players. With that in mind, let’s start with one of the top AL Cy Young candidates.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. MIN
It took Gausman a long time to live up to his draft stock, but he’s finally there. The right-hander broke out with the Giants last season and has carried it over in Toronto with a 2.51 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 rate. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in all 10 of his starts, too, establishing one of the highest floors in MLB. The Twins have been one of the best offenses in baseball, but the talent on this roster doesn’t scare us with Byron Buxton in a massive slump and Max Kepler on the restrictive list.
Zac Gallen (ARI) at PIT
Gallen has a similar trajectory to Gausman, with both of these guys developing into aces. Zac has a 4-0 record, thanks to a 2.32 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 rate. That even includes one dud, with Gallen allowing two runs or fewer in his other nine starts. He should duplicate that form against Pittsburgh’s putrid offense, with the Pirates ranked 25th in OBP, 27th in OPS, and 29th in runs scored.
GPP Recommendations:
Lucas Giolito (CWS) at TB
Giolito is having one of the worst years of his career, but it’s just a matter of time before he gets going. The right-hander has a 3.49 ERA and 1.10 WHIP since 2019. That’s a large sample size of dominance, with Gio striking out nearly 30 percent of the batters he faces. He actually has a 12.5 K/9 rate this year, allowing three runs or fewer in each of his first seven starts. That one Toronto dud has killed his averages, but we expect one of the gems against Tampa Bay. The Rays are missing their two best hitters, sitting 27th in OBP and 23rd in wOBA.
Luis Castillo (CIN) vs. WAS
Castillo has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he looks to be feeling it this year. The Reds righty has a 3.38 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season, striking out 10 hitters across six scoreless innings in his most recent start. That was a matchup with Boston in Fenway Park, and facing Washington is a much tastier matchup. The Nationals have just one run over the last three games going into Saturday and have little outside of a struggling Juan Soto.
Top Lineup Stacks
We had the Astros in here on Saturday, and we’re going right back to the well. This is a Top-5 lineup in nearly every metric, and we certainly don’t anticipate a guy like Jonny Heasley to slow them down. The Royals righty has a 4.66 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his rookie season. If he’s posting a 1.76 WHIP against Houston, this could be a short outing for the youngster.
Smeltzer has sensational numbers on the surface, but regression will hit him like a wall. The left-hander has a 1.50 ERA but a 4.46 xFIP. He also has a career xFIP shy of 5.00, which could be bad news against one of the best lineups in baseball. All of that means some shellings are right around the corner for the southpaw, and a righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup could bludgeon those deflated averages.
It feels crazy to have the Reds as one of our favorite stacks, but Patrick Corbin is a complete gas can right now. The Nats lefty has a 1-8 record this season, no thanks to a 6.96 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Those are some of the worst averages in baseball, but it’s no surprise since he has a 5.77 ERA and 1.55 WHIP since 2020. Any lineup can go off against him, and it seems way more likely in a hitter’s haven like Great American Smallpark.
Core Studs
- Vlad would have won AL MVP last season if Shohei Ohtani didn’t do something historic, and it’s clear this youngster will be one of the best hitters in baseball for the next decade. Vlad has a .924 OPS over his last eight games played, which is right on par with his .956 OPS since the start of last season. He’s going to be the conductor of the regression train for Smeltzer.
- Mookie is getting all the love in LA, but Freeman has been almost as good. The former Brave has a .297 AVG, .386 OBP, .476 SLG, and .862 OPS over his last 48 games played. He’s also much better against righties and should do well against Trevor Williams‘ 4.28 career ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
- Yordan just got a contract extension on Friday, and he deserved it. The big man has a .941 OPS this season, which is amazingly below his career .947 OPS. Those are obviously some of the best averages around, and he’s the most dangerous lefty against a crappy righty like Heasley.
- We had J-Ram in here on Friday, and we’re going right back to the well. This has been the best producer in fantasy since the start of last season, and he’s going to go nuts against this terrible Orioles pitching staff. Baltimore is sending out a TBD here, and that’s never good news with how bad they’ve developed pitching.
- Olson in Coors Field sounds like success. The left masher has an ISO above .260 since breaking out three years ago, and we’re not worried about him facing Ryan Feltner. The Rockies righty has a 5.79 career ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
Value Plays/Punts
- Pham’s hard-hit rates are some of the best in the game, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets rolling. This is a good spot for that, with Tommy tallying a .981 OPS over his last eight games. He’s also slaughtered southpaws throughout his career, and we don’t anticipate Corbin to slow him down with the way he’s pitching.
- Finding a good catcher is tough, but Varsho is one of the best backstops in the game. The leadoff hitter for Arizona has a .345 OBP, .508 SLG, and .855 OPS against right-handers this year. That certainly won’t go over well for Zach Thompson, with the Pirates pitcher providing a 5.18 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season.
- Walsh has made minced meat of righties throughout his career, and this is an excellent spot for him to keep his hot streak going. The Angels first baseman has a .283 AVG, .630 SLG, and .947 OPS over his last 12 games. His numbers against right-handers are on par with that, amassing a .379 OBP, .589 SLG, and .968 OPS against them since 2020. Facing a journeyman with a 1.38 career WHIP isn’t too shabby either.
- Stacking the Reds is tough, but Pham and Drury make for a tremendous two-man stack. Drury has been their best hitter against left-handers this season, generating a .289 AVG, .556 SLG, and .875 OPS against them. With how bad Corbin has been, these two make for a great pairing, and it’ll allow you to do whatever else you want with your lineup.
Hitter Strategy
This slate is so different from the Saturday slate. We liked a balanced build on Saturday but paying up for pitcher and saving at hitter is the way to go here. The Reds stack is one of the most affordable on the board, and it’ll allow you to pick whatever pitchers you want. There are numerous other lineups that are in great spots, including teams like the Yankees, Guardians, Diamondbacks, Braves, Rockies, and Dodgers. We have plenty to pick from with all of those teams, and it should allow you to save some salary for the expensive pitchers mentioned above.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
