Monday’s main slate is moderately large, including nine games at DraftKings and FanDuel. Also, it begins at the usual 7:05 pm ET start time.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The middle tier is the sweet spot for cash games. However, it also has plenty of upside for GPPs. However, one ace having an excellent season and another ace who's stumbled this year are also high-upside GPP picks.
Monday’s main slate is moderately large, including nine games at DraftKings and FanDuel. Also, it begins at the usual 7:05 pm ET start time.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The middle tier is the sweet spot for cash games. However, it also has plenty of upside for GPPs. However, one ace having an excellent season and another ace who's stumbled this year are also high-upside GPP picks.
Cash Game Recommendations:
George Kirby (SEA) vs. BAL
Kirby is making an outstanding first impression in The Show. According to FanGraphs, in nine starts spanning 49.0 innings, he's had a 3.12 ERA, 3.35 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.0 BB% and 23.3 K%. Moreover, Kirby has had four quality starts in his last five turns.
The rookie righty has a good matchup tonight. The Orioles are 21st in wRC+ (92) versus righties. In addition, their 23.3 K% gives him punch-out potential. Finally, the betting info is supportive. According to Betting Pros, the Mariners are -158, and the game's total is just 7.5 runs.
Jordan Montgomery (NYY) vs. OAK
In 14 starts lasting 78.2 innings this year, Montgomery has had a sterling 2.97 ERA with rock-solid ERA estimators, such as a 3.97 xERA and 3.71 xFIP. The lefty has also had a superb 1.02 WHIP. Sadly, his 18.5 K% has left a lot to be desired. Yet, Montgomery's 29.9 CSW% indicates he has more strikeout potential.
Further, Montgomery's ceiling is enhanced tonight by a matchup against the A's. Oakland is 26th in wRC+ (88) against southpaws this season. Finally, since the lefty is also backed by the loaded offense, the Yankees are huge -305 favorites.
GPP Recommendations:
Pablo Lopez (MIA) at STL
Since Kirby and Montgomery are obviously top-shelf picks tonight, Lopez might fly under the radar. As a result, Miami's supremely talented righty is an intriguing GPP pick.
In 14 starts totaling 82.2 innings, he's had a 2.61 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 25.1 K% and 29.7 CSW%. Lopez's marks are scintillating. Thus, he can tie up even an above-average lineup against righties like the Cardinals. If this were an obviously great spot for Lopez, he wouldn't be positioned as a possibly sneaky GPP pick, right? Since it's not a dreamy matchup, using Lopez is chasing his pitching talent and hoping he's overlooked.
Lucas Giolito (CWS) at LAA
Giolito has been crushed in back-to-back starts. Still, those turns were against the Blue Jays and Astros, two of MLB's best offenses. Sadly, Giolito has also allowed at least four runs in five straight starts.
Thankfully, even during his struggles, he's had an 11.7 SwStr%. Giolito's ability to miss bats is encouraging. Perhaps, the Angels are a get-right matchup. Over the last 14 days, they've been 28th in wRC+ (75) and struck out at an eye-popping 28.2% rate. Therefore, the Angels offer Giolito a chance to rack up many points by strikeouts tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rockies are underdogs at home. Nevertheless, the game's total is 11.5 runs. Additionally, they're monsters at home. The Rockies have the highest wOBA (.348) at home in 2022. Further, only two other teams have had a wOBA above .335. Tyler Anderson is thriving with the Dodgers. Regardless, Coors Field can bring every pitcher to their knees -- something Anderson is aware of after spending the beginning of his career pitching for the Rockies.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/LAD -210
The Dodgers are the visitors and favorites at Coors Field tonight. So, they have a bigger implied total than the hosts. In addition, they have a better matchup. Chad Kuhl got off to a surprisingly good start this year. However, he's hit the skids lately. In his previous eight starts, Kuhl has had a 5.59 ERA and 5.06 xFIP. Colorado's bullpen has also been the second-worst group this year, enhancing the Dodgers' ceiling.
- C.J. Cron is a lefty-killer. Since 2019, he's had a .367 OBP, .291 ISO and 142 wRC+ versus southpaws.
- Brendan Rodgers is also quite good against lefties. Since 2019, he's had a .344 OBP, .235 ISO and 122 wRC+ against them.
- Will Smith has had a .347 OBP, .202 ISO and 129 wRC+ this year. Still, he's been somewhat unlucky. According to FanGraphs, Smith has had a .351 wOBA that's significantly lower than his .406 xwOBA.
- Jesse Winker has been on fire this month. In 100 plate appearances, he's had a .430 OBP, .205 ISO and 171 wRC+.
- J.P. Crawford has been an on-base machine this year against righties, sporting a .401 OBP. So, he's a sweet sub-$3,000 option on FD.
- Oneil Cruz hasn't been perfect since the Pirates called him up. Nonetheless, he's hit the ball hard, and his 25.9 K% isn't outrageously high.
- Jake Burger has had a 15.5 Barrel% and .527 xSLG. As a result, Noah Syndergaard's 15.0 K% against righties this year might be tailor-made for Burger tapping into his power.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The strategy is simple tonight. Gamers are encouraged to pick hitters at Coors Field, blending in values and punts where it's necessary to squeeze the top options under the salary cap.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.