There are only two teams that aren’t playing on the main slate. Thus, it’s a jam-packed Friday night for DFS, including 14 games, starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. So, there is a vast player pool to sift through.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A white-hot ace is the top pitcher in a pitcher-friendly park tonight. The middle tier also has a pair of intriguing hurlers. Finally, adventurous gamers can roll the dice in GPPs on a pitcher who might be figuring it out.
There are only two teams that aren’t playing on the main slate. Thus, it’s a jam-packed Friday night for DFS, including 14 games, starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. So, there is a vast player pool to sift through.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A white-hot ace is the top pitcher in a pitcher-friendly park tonight. The middle tier also has a pair of intriguing hurlers. Finally, adventurous gamers can roll the dice in GPPs on a pitcher who might be figuring it out.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Aaron Nola (PHI) at SD
Nola is in the midst of a great season on the bump. Still, he's been especially hot lately. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts totaling 37.1 innings, he's had a 1.93 ERA, 3.00 SIERA, 0.70 WHIP, 0.7 BB%, 25.4 K% and 30.0 CSW%.
Tonight, the betting info for Nola is appealing, too. According to Betting Pros, the Phillies are -120 favorites, and the game's over/under is a tiny 7.0 runs. Finally, if Manny Machado is out again, Nola becomes even more intriguing. Nonetheless, he's the top pitcher tonight, regardless of Machado's playing status.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs. DET
Kelly has been rock-solid this year, amassing a 3.46 ERA and 3.58 xERA in 14 starts totaling 78.0 innings. However, there's been a noteworthy development lately. Kelly has been throwing harder. In his first nine starts, his average fastball velocity was 92.5 mph. Yet, in his most recent five turns, he's averaging 93.2 mph. The veteran righty has also kicked up the velocity on his cutter.
Unsurprisingly, Kelly's swinging-strike rate has increased with his newfound velocity. As a result, Kelly might have a slightly higher ceiling. Moreover, he has an excellent matchup tonight. The Tigers are dead last in wRC+ (68), adding an exploitable 24.1 K% for good measure. Thus, Kelly is an excellent SP2 at DK in all game types and the no-brainer cash pick.
GPP Recommendations:
Jeffrey Springs (TB) vs. PIT
Springs has successfully transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation. Further, while he had a hiccup in his last start, he's still been consistently good lately. Springs has struck out five hitters or more in six straight starts, pitching five or more innings five times.
Thankfully, he has a bounce-back matchup tonight. The Pirates are 28th in wRC+ (83) against lefties and strikeout prone. Pittsburgh's 24.1 K% is tied for the third-highest mark against lefties. Therefore, Springs has an optimal matchup for GPP appeal.
Mitch Keller (PIT) at TB
Keller is a volatile pick. Still, there is a possible legitimate explanation for his recent turnaround. Keller has been picking the brain of former teammate Clay Holmes about the sinker.
In his last three starts spanning 17.1 innings, Keller has had a 2.08 ER, 3.86 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 18.3 K% and 54.9 GB%. Keller's strikeout rate isn't exciting, but it's good enough with his stellar groundball rate.
He'll attempt to keep rolling in a good matchup. The Rays are tied for 19th in wRC+ (93) versus righties. Moreover, they might bolster Keller's strikeout potential with a 25.1 K%. As a result, Keller is a worthy dart throw in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Blue Jays have a juicy matchup against Adrian Houser tonight. The veteran right-hander has had a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 xERA this year, but he's been worse lately. Additionally, he has a below-average strikeout rate (18.2 K%) and walk rate (9.8 BB%), creating traffic regularly, as evidenced by his 1.43 WHIP. Houser is tough on righties, creating a risk to using the Blue Jays. Nevertheless, the Blue Jays have the power to punish Houser for putting ducks on the pond.
- Home (Busch Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/STL -160
Father Time gets the better of everyone, and he might have caught up to Kyle Hendricks. The 32-year-old righty has made a career of outperforming his ERA estimators. Yet, the other shoe has dropped since last year. In 2021, he had a 4.77 ERA and 4.95 xERA. This year, Hendricks has been worse, earning a 5.43 ERA and 5.45 xERA. In addition, he's yielded 1.72 HR/9 in 2022. All Hendricks' marks scream to stack against him, and the Cardinals are an above-average offense against righties. As a result, the Red Birds are a top-flight stack tonight.
- Home (Chase Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ARI -166
The Diamondbacks have been a stoppable force lately, but Rony Garcia has been a movable object. So in this scenario, it's easy to envision the Diamondbacks shaking out of their funk in a mouthwatering matchup. Simply, Garcia has no business in a big-league rotation. In five starts for the Tigers, he's had a grotesque 6.38 ERA. Yes, the Diamondbacks have been the worst offense in MLB over the last 14 days, but Garcia is exactly what the doctor ordered.
- Teoscar Hernandez has been a beast in the last month. Since May 23, in 112 plate appearances, he's hit five homers with two stolen bases, a .357 OBP, .257 ISO and 160 wRC+.
- Bo Bichette has also been hot lately. Over the last 30 days, he's had a .355 OBP, .193 ISO, 139 wRC+, five homers and one stolen base in 124 plate appearances.
- Paul Goldschmidt is on a path to the NL MVP Award. In 300 plate appearances, he's hit 17 homers with a .286 ISO, .423 OBP and 193 wRC+.
- Nolan Gorman has taken to The Show quite well. In 111 plate appearances, he's hit six homers with a .218 ISO, .342 OBP and 138 wRC+.
- Jake Burger has nifty pop, as evidenced by his .217 ISO in 171 plate appearances. The righties pop dovetails perfectly with Kyle Bradish's struggles against righties, coughing up a .696 SLG to them.
- Alek Thomas has hit the ground running in the bigs, making him a steal at his salary. The rookie outfielder has hit six homers with four stolen bases, a .338 OBP and 119 wRC+ in 157 plate appearances.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
All three highlighted stacks are on nearly even footing. So, gamers are encouraged to pluck hitters from the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Diamondbacks for DFS squads.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
