A doubleheader creates different slate sizes for DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. DK’s main slate includes the second game of a doubleheader between the Phillies and Nationals. However, FD’s main slate excludes the NL East contest. As a result, DK’s slate is 12 games, and FD’s is 11.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A lefty ace headlines tonight's pitcher picks. He's the top cash game option. The last pitcher on the table doubles as the best SP2 in cash games on DK and an excellent GPP pick on FD. Meanwhile, the two AL West hurlers sandwiched in the middle of the table are great GPP picks at both DFS providers.
A doubleheader creates different slate sizes for DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. DK’s main slate includes the second game of a doubleheader between the Phillies and Nationals. However, FD’s main slate excludes the NL East contest. As a result, DK’s slate is 12 games, and FD’s is 11.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A lefty ace headlines tonight's pitcher picks. He's the top cash game option. The last pitcher on the table doubles as the best SP2 in cash games on DK and an excellent GPP pick on FD. Meanwhile, the two AL West hurlers sandwiched in the middle of the table are great GPP picks at both DFS providers.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Carlos Rodon (SF) at PIT
Rodon is pitching very well in his first season with the Giants. In a dozen starts spanning 65 innings, he's recorded a sterling 3.18 ERA, 2.97 xERA, 1.22 WHIP, 30.6 K% and 29.2 CSW%, per FanGraphs. The flamethrowing lefty has a delectable matchup on tap tonight against the Pirates.
The Buccos are tied for 26th in wRC+ (86) versus southpaws this season. Additionally, their 24.3 K% is the third-highest mark. So, Rodon is a good bet to spin a gem against them. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Giants are -200 favorites, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Jon Gray (TEX) at DET
Gray has underperformed his ERA estimators this year. Yet, his 3.78 xERA, 3.76 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA are encouraging marks. Plus, Gray has had two electrifying efforts in his previous three starts.
As a result, he's a superb pick against Detroit's hapless lineup. The Tigers are dead last in wRC+ (65) versus right-handed pitchers in 2022. They've also fanned at an exploitable 24.9% clip. Thus, Gray is a good bet to strike out hitters in bunches and deliver as an SP2 at DK for his modest salary. However, his upside is inviting in GPPs on FD.
GPP Recommendations:
Frankie Montas (OAK) vs. KC
Montas continues to audition himself as a trade target for a contender. The righty is doing his part to be a desirable chip, sporting a 3.40 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 1.04 WHIP, 5.6 BB% and 26.1 K% in 13 starts lasting 76.2 innings for the rebuilding A's.
He should show well tonight, too. The Royals are a favorable matchup, ranking 23rd in wRC+ (89) versus righties. In addition, they're not doing anything to suggest they'll shake out of their funk, ranking tied for 19th in wRC+ (96) over the past 14 days.
Robbie Ray (SEA) vs. LAA
Ray was a deserving AL Cy Young Award winner last year. Unfortunately, he hasn't duplicated his success. Nevertheless, the lefty's ERA estimators suggest better days are ahead. Ray has also struck out a solid 25.1% of the batters he's faced, but he's probably due for more punchouts with a blistering 15.1 SwStr%.
Thankfully, the Angels are the perfect matchup to pile up punchouts. The Angels have struck out at the fifth-highest rate (24.0 K%) against lefties this season. Yet, there's even more upside facing them lately. In the last 14 days, they've struck out at an MLB-high 29.8% clip. So, Ray is a high-ceiling upside who gamers should jump all over in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The betting info tells the whole story. The Friars are expected to score runs in bunches at MLB's premier hitting location. They're also facing a below-average lefty and one of the worst bullpens in the league. Kyle Freeland has had a 4.39 ERA that best his ERA estimators. He's also playing with fire, striking out only 16.4% of the batters he's faced. As a result, the Padres are the top stack on tonight's slate.
- Road (Chase Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/MIN -130
The Twins are a high-upside GPP stack against Madison Bumgarner. The veteran lefty hasn't been a frontline starter in years, and his 4.80 xFIP contradicts his 3.50 ERA. Trusting the ERA estimators to win out, in the long run, is wise, making him a regression candidate. The Twins don't have a deep lineup, but the first four spots and Jose Miranda are stellar picks.
- Road (Nationals Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The table above isn't an error. The second game of the Phillies at Nationals doubleheader isn't on FD's main slate. However, after laying the wood to Washington on Thursday night, Philadelphia is a highly attractive GPP pick on DK. The Phillies will be even more enticing if they get into Washington's terrible bullpen earlier in the day. Regardless, Paolo Espino won't be long for this contest since it's only his second start after working in relief. Thus, gamers should be excited to go after Washington's horrible 4,53 ERA for relievers.
- Manny Machado has murdered lefties. Since 2019, he's had a .385 OBP, .276 ISO and 151 wRC+.
- Carlos Correa has been unstoppable since returning from the COVID Injured List (IL). He's on a seven-game hitting streak that started on his first day off the IL, blasting two bombs with a .500 OBP, .286 ISO and 248 wRC+ in 32 plate appearances.
- Byron Buxton rips lefties. Since 2019, he's had a .293 ISO and 147 wRC+ against them. The outfielder's top-shelf power is tailor-made to punish Bumgarner's ineffectiveness in missing bats.
- Luke Voit will receive the Coors Field bump, and his 111 wRC+ versus lefties since 2019 is a sweet mark to have on rosters at his DK salary.
- Brendan Donovan is grossly underpriced. The left-handed-hitting rookie has had a .454 OBP and 169 wRC+ in 130 plate appearances against righties.
- Gio Urshela is a useful pivot from Machado on DK. However, he's in this section because he's a steal who can be used with Machado on FD. Since 2019, he's had a 116 wRC+ against southpaws, a mark that's well above what gamers should get for $300 above the minimum salary.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
It's not reinventing the wheel suggesting to go to the well for offense at Coors Field. San Diego's hitters are the lucky beneficiaries of the trip to Colorado. So, they're the best source of offense. The Twins are a good source of hitting options in all game types, and they're an excellent GPP stack. Finally, the Phillies have a high-upside offense that gamers can turn to on DK.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
