Matthew Freedman’s Players to Avoid (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL season is approaching, and that means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but sometimes there’s a reason a player is ‘falling’ down draft boards. You need to know when to scoop up value and when to move on. Here are Matthew Freedman’s top players to avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts.

Matthew Freedman’s Players to Avoid

Based on what I’m seeing in our Expert Consensus Rankings, Dissenting Opinions Tool, and Average Draft Position Consensus, here are players I’m unlikely to have much exposure to in 2022 fantasy football leagues.

Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)

I see why the consensus is higher on Wilson than I am: He is now free of antiquated HC Pete Carroll, and the Broncos have a strong pass-catching corps with WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler; TEs Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich; and RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. But Wilson has averaged just 22.8 yards rushing per game over the past four years (since his age-30 season), so his fantasy floor is unexceptional, and he might not cook as much as expected given that HC Nathaniel Hackett oversaw a top-12 offense in pass attempts just once (2016 Jaguars) in his eight years as an offensive coordinator.

Derek Carr (QB – LV)

Nothing against Carr, but some people are acting as if he’s a star quarterback, and I don’t want to buy that bridge.

The bull case for Carr is that the Raiders added HC Josh McDaniels and WR Davante Adams this offseason and he has improved over the past four years (68.7% completion rate, 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt). The bear case is that McDaniels has had limited success without QB Tom Brady, Adams hasn’t caught passes from Carr since their 2013 college days at Fresno State, and former HC Jon Gruden’s scheme might have had more to do with Carr’s recent success than any inherent development on the part of the quarterback.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

Despite opening his career with back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns from scrimmage, Gibson carries significant downside in 2022. He possesses a true three-down skill set, but the Commanders seem more desirous than ever to limit Gibson’s workload after he played last year with an assortment of lower-body injuries (hip, turf toe, shin). Even though they had Jaret Patterson, Wendell Smallwood, and Jonathan Williams on the roster, the Commanders went out of their way this offseason to re-sign J.D. McKissic (who had already agreed to a deal with the Bills) and to invest a top-100 pick into Brian Robinson (who was drafted “at least a full round” early, per ESPN’s Matt Miller). With McKissic stealing targets and Robinson challenging for goal-line touches, short-yardage work, and rotational series, Gibson could turn into a low-ceiling, low-floor between-the-20s committee back.

Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)

In his five years with the 49ers, HC Kyle Shanahan has had five different No. 1 running backs.

Mitchell played well last year (1,100 yards in 11 games), but he’s not built like a lead back (5-foot-10, 200 pounds), and the 49ers might consider him replaceable given his 2021 draft capital (pick No. 194). He’s vulnerable to rookie RB Tyrion Davis-Price (pick No. 93, 6-foot-1, 219 pounds).

Devin Singletary (RB – BUF)

Singletary is coming off his most productive NFL season (1,098 yards, eight touchdowns), and he closed the campaign as the clear lead back in Buffalo with 14.6 carries and three targets per game from Week 12 through the playoffs. But if the Bills were enamored with Singletary, they wouldn’t have selected Zack Moss and then James Cook on Day 2 of the 2020 and 2022 drafts. Cook, especially, with his speed (4.42-second 40-yard dash), draft capital (pick No. 63), recruitment status (four stars), and pass-catching ability (27-284-4 receiving in final college season) is an instant threat to Singletary.

Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA)

Over the past four years, Edmonds has failed to beat out a past-his-prime David Johnson, a retread Kenyan Drake, and an oft-injured James Conner. Each season, it looks like it’s gonna be Edmonds SZN — and then it isn’t. The Dolphins presumably brought him in to be their lead back, but they also signed Raheem Mostert and then Sony Michel.

To new Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel — Kyle Shanahan’s former run game coordinator (2017-20) and offensive coordinator (2021) — running backs might be fungible assets, which makes Edmonds a risky investment.

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

Waddle set an NFL record last year for a rookie with 104 receptions. That’s cool, I guess, but let’s be honest — it wasn’t a great season. Waddle’s bottom-line production (1,015 yards receiving) pales in comparison to what we’ve seen out of other rookies recently on far less volume (140 targets): Ja’Marr Chase (1,455, 128 targets), Justin Jefferson (1,400, 125), Michael Thomas (1,137, 121), Odell Beckham (1,305, 130). Last year, Waddle was basically Amon-Ra St. Brown (912 yards, 90 receptions) but with 21 more targets — and this year he could earn fewer opportunities, given that the team acquired No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill and the new coaching staff is likely to rely on the running game (based on HC Mike McDaniel’s history with Kyle Shanahan). I don’t see a strong reason to invest in the No. 2 receiver in an offense that might want to limit the number of times QB Tua Tagovailoa throws the ball.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

Skepticism is warranted for Godwin, who suffered an ACL tear in Week 15. At Buccaneers OTAs, HC Todd Bowles sounded unenthusiastic about Godwin’s recovery.

Godwin has been cleared for training camp, but he’s not a lock to play in the early weeks of the season, and even if he returns for Week 1 he might be a limited version of himself. On top of that, the Bucs signed slot receiver Russell Gage this offseason as well as future Hall-of-Famer Julio Jones, which means that Godwin will face more competition for targets and might need to play more snaps on the perimeter, where he has less experience. Godwin’s situation is plagued with uncertainty.

Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI)

Maybe Mooney is a good player. He did have 1,055 yards receiving on 140 targets last year — but he feels a little too 2013 to me. Why 2013? Because that’s when Harry Douglas (132 targets, 1,067 yards), Kendall Wright (139 targets, 1,079 yards) and Brian Hartline (133 targets, 1,016 yards) all looked like No. 1 wide receivers … but very much were not actual No. 1 wide receivers. Mooney seems like he’s in line to see 140-ish targets once again, and yet I can’t get over the fact that he’s a former small-school fifth-rounder who entered college as a two-star recruit and never had 1,000 yards in an undergraduate season. Guys like that tend not to have multiple seasons of NFL success: The gravity of their priors eventually pulls them back down to earth.

Allen Robinson (WR – LAR)

Robinson’s second NFL season (1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns) was transcendent. It was also seven years ago, and since then he has been more of an accumulator than a playmaker … and last year the accumulation stopped.

People seem to assume that Robinson will automatically see 120-plus targets in 2022 — but that’s what they assumed last year, and Robinson has a hard cap on his ceiling given that he will play behind Cooper Kupp and has averaged just 7.7 yards per target since his 2017 ACL tear.

The training camp buzz for Robinson has been undeniably strong.

I might eventually be forced to take the “L” — because he has the best quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and head coach (Sean McVay) of his career, and maybe he’s still better than the 2021 version who looked done.

But my sense is that the draft market is so hot on Robinson as a bounceback candidate that he is priced near his ceiling, which means he’s someone I’m happy to avoid.

Darren Waller (TE – LV)

In 2020, Waller was the clear No. 1 pass-catching option for the Raiders. But last year he was challenged by WR Hunter Renfrow, and this year he faces competition from both Renfrow and new WR Davante Adams. When you add the uncertainty of a new offense on top of that — plus Waller’s age (30) — he becomes someone I’m fine bypassing in drafts.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA)

Gesicki is not bad, but if I have to choose between him or a number of guys going later at the position, I’ll take the cheaper players. He has strong target competition in new No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill and second-year WR Jaylen Waddle, and HC Mike McDaniel could look to rely on the ground attack, given his history as a run game coordinator (2017-20).

Matthew Freedman’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings