Our own Sam Ryner recently dug into previous wide receiver breakouts in order to understand and better predict future breakout candidates. Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown took to the task as well, sharing their candidates on a recent fantasy football podcast. Let’s take a look at one player they identified as a potential breakout WR1 candidate for 2022: Michael Pittman Jr..

The case for Michael Pittman Jr. to be the next WR1 breakout

Michael Pittman Jr. 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

Pittman got the true WR1 treatment from the Colts coaching staff in 2021, running a route on 96% of offensive dropbacks – third to only Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR4) through 17 weeks. He also finished the season tied for the league’s eighth-highest target share (24%), which was 11 percentage points higher than the next closest Colt, Zach Pascal, at 13%.

He also made 18 highlight-reel contested catches – fourth most in the NFL. And his 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 cemented his place in Indy’s WR1 chair heading into 2022.

With Matt Ryan under center Pittman has the volume potential to be a top-12 fantasy option. Ryan has a history of fueling top-end fantasy WRs like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, making a top-five finish not all that crazy for Big Mike in 2022.

Don’t forget that last season, Ridley as the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5).
– Andrew Erickson

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings