The lineup for this exercise consists of QB-1, RB-2, WR-3, TE-1, and FLEX-2 in a 12-team half-PPR draft.
Check out who I selected and why in the first seven rounds of the mock draft. I provide my analysis and strategy by answering seven questions to guide fantasy managers given the 1.07 in their fantasy football drafts.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?
The 7th pick in the draft is a beautiful place to be. While you will miss out on one of the top-tier RBs, you’ll still have your pick of the litter for the best WRs. Drafting in the middle of each round should help you create a balanced roster that will require very little reaching. You should be able to let value fall to you rather than being forced to seek it out at the start or end of the draft order.
The lineup for this exercise consists of QB-1, RB-2, WR-3, TE-1, and FLEX-2 in a 12-team half-PPR draft.
Check out who I selected and why in the first seven rounds of the mock draft. I provide my analysis and strategy by answering seven questions to guide fantasy managers given the 1.07 in their fantasy football drafts.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?
The 7th pick in the draft is a beautiful place to be. While you will miss out on one of the top-tier RBs, you’ll still have your pick of the litter for the best WRs. Drafting in the middle of each round should help you create a balanced roster that will require very little reaching. You should be able to let value fall to you rather than being forced to seek it out at the start or end of the draft order.
One of the primary advantages for managers in this position is that the draft’s first two rounds present multiple opportunities to solidify the WR1 and RB1 positions. Doing so should open up future opportunities to select a mid-round QB or TE and to confidently make a few riskier picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Do you have a certain strategy when picking at 1.07 in 2022?
According to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, the 7th pick in the draft should yield Najee Harris, who would be a wonderful selection at this spot. He may suffer some target regression now that Big Ben has been replaced by more mobile QB options (meaning that they may choose to scramble rather than check down to Harris), but he’ll still be a high-volume player.
There are other options here that could be possible selections. You may recall that Travis Kelce was being selected as early as the 7th pick in fantasy drafts last season, and you may be tempted to select him here this year. That wouldn’t be the worst selection in the world, but there are multiple TEs this season who could supplant him as the overall TE1, and they can be drafted at a lesser value. The savvy managers will stick to their rankings and end up with the best available RB or WR. My strategy here is that if no top-6 RB falls to me, I want Cooper Kupp.
The first round sets my early-round draft strategy, especially for the second round. If I start with an RB, I’ll likely go WR in round 2. If I go WR in round 1, I want RB in round 2. Even if I need to reach just a little for the player I want, it’s important to me to have balance in my roster early on. After the WR-RB or RB-WR start, it’s simply a matter of adjusting to the draft board.
Who are the first-round targets in this spot, and what’s the order of preference?
The top targets at the 1.07 spot are Cooper Kupp and Najee Harris. If for some reason, both players are available at the 1.07, I would prefer to select Kupp over Harris. Kupp finished as the overall WR1 for 2021, and there’s no reason to think he can’t repeat in 2022.
As stated previously, ECR has Harris listed as the likely best player available at the 1.07 spot, but I think a few players could fall due to injury. Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook could both be fallers in fantasy drafts this season, and both have had issues with injury in the last few seasons and could easily suffer a similar fate in 2022. With the 1.07 pick landing squarely in the middle of the draft, I would feel safe taking a falling McCaffrey or Cook over Kupp and Harris, but I would adjust my selections in the next two rounds to target players with less injury risk.
Is there anyone you’re avoiding who might be available to you in the first round?
As stated previously, some managers may feel tempted to select Travis Kelce at the 1.07 pick, but it would be a reach at the 1.07. The earliest I’m looking at Kelce this year is the 1.09, and even then, I’m not chomping at the bit to take him. I’d also encourage anyone looking to outsmart consensus rankings by drafting Ja’Marr Chase over Kupp not to do so. Chase will have a great season, but Kupp is the consensus WR1 for a reason.
What is the plan of attack for rounds 2-3 based on the possible first-round scenarios?
The general idea for rounds 2 and 3 is pretty simple: balance the WR and RB position in round 2 and then take the best available player in round 3.
If ECR is correct and Najee Harris is the pick at 1.07, I’d be looking at WRs that might make it to the 18th overall pick. According to ECR, the best WRs that might be available at the 18th pick include CeeDee Lamb and Deebo Samuel.
If I leave round 1 with Cooper Kupp instead of Najee Harris, the best RBs at pick 18 include Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Aaron Jones. Personally, I’m not interested in Alvin Kamara right now, and a suspension could be looming for him, and both Fournette and Jones seem like safer picks. Jones, in particular, could be in line for an elevated level of receiving work, so his value is even higher in PPR leagues.
For round 3, ECR shows that the likely players available will be Tee Higgins, David Montgomery, and Cam Akers. For me, Montgomery feels like the right selection here. He’s a volume-based RB2, but (on a per-week basis) he’s outperformed his ADP the past two seasons. He’d help round out my starting RB pair and leave me feeling safe to reach for my preferred players in rounds 4-7. Kyle Pitts should still be available for those who find themselves at the 3.07 spot with a WR-RB pair and want to target the TE position early, but round 3 is likely the last chance you’ll have to draft him.
Who are some targets in rounds 4-7?
I hope to leave the first three rounds with as many RBs and WRs as possible, and I don’t want to reach for a QB or TE just yet. Here are a few targets for each of the next few rounds. Remember that I don’t recommend drafting a TE and a QB over the first seven rounds. Only go with one of those positions if you do. The QB position is deep, and there are multiple late-round targets you should consider. As for TE, there are fewer late-round targets, but the mid-round options should leave you feeling confident in your roster.
After seven rounds, which positions do you expect to be areas of strength for you, and which positions will you still need to address?
I firmly believe that any manager who sticks to drafting only RB and WR, except for one TE or QB, will enter the latter parts of their draft feeling like they’ve already won the league. Targeting RB earlier in the draft can help set up your roster to have depth at the most volatile position, but you must be careful not to do so at the peril of the WR position. An early WR-RB or RB-WR combo in rounds 1-2 leaves you up for draft success.
Moving into round 8 and beyond, I would start considering which QB or TE I want to target. If I spent an earlier pick on a QB (let’s say Lamar Jackson in the fifth round), I would be interested in targeting Zach Ertz, Dawson Knox, or Pat Freiermuth in round 8 or 9. If I targeted a TE (say George Kittle in the fourth round), I would target Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, or Derek Carr. Or I may wait a little longer, pick up some more WR or RB depth, and then take Trey Lance a round later. If I do end up waiting to take a TE or QB, I would likely also take a depth player at that position a bit later in the draft. My late-round QB target is Ryan Tannehill, and my late-round TE target is Cole Kmet.
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Tim Metzler is a featured writer at FantasyPros, known for multiple article series’, including 5 Under 25, Expert Consensus Rantings, his in-season Running Diary, and his dynasty IDP rankings. For more from Tim, check out his archive and follow him @Timmy_The_Metz.