For most leagues, the tight end may be the most challenging position to price. Historically, the tight end position rarely matches week-to-week consistency over the upside shown by the running back or wide receiver position players. And yet, finding a breakout tight end can be the value edge drafters or managers need to eclipse their league-mates.
Depending on the league format, the tight end value can vary wildly. For instance, in FFPC best ball drafts, seven TEs are commonly drafted in the first five rounds due to the TE-premium scoring bonus. However, in the Underdog Fantasy drafts, the TE7 is going three rounds later in half-PPR scoring. Regardless of league format, the best way to split the TE position is into tiers. Using these tiers should support drafters regardless of format. A few players are highlighted from each tier.
Tier One — A Tier of His Own: Travis Kelce
Hasn’t Mark Andrews dethroned Kelce as the TE1? Not so fast. With Tyreek Hill now transplanted to Miami, Travis Kelce is the surest part of the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Before 2021, Kelce had been the TE1 overall each season since 2016. In 2021, though, Kelce still scored 15.5 or more PPR fantasy points at a 62.5% rate, the highest rate of any TE in the league. Mark Andrews, second in rate of scoring 15.5 PPR fantasy points, only did so at a 44.8% clip. In the six games that Tyreek Hill left early or missed due to injury in 2019, Travis Kelce averaged about six receptions, nine targets and almost 90 yards per game. Fading Travis Kelce for 2022.
Tier 2- Mid-Round: Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Darren Waller, Rob Gronkowski
With news that JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards may be slow progressing back from their 2021 preseason ACL tears, Andrews is poised for another massive season. The Ravens traded away WR1 Marquise Brown and are depending on the development of 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman to play a meaningful part in the passing offense. Andrews led all TEs in target share at 26%, a 3.6% jump from 2020. However, the splits in games without Jackson were noticeable. In games when Lamar Jackson did not play for the Ravens, Andrews’ average target share was 30.8%, whereas, in games with Jackson, it was 21.9%.
Pitts is due for TD regression in 2022. Kyle Pitts was ninth among all TEs in red zone targets despite only scoring one TD on the season. As a rookie, Pitts was fifth among all TEs in targets and finished with over 1,000 receiving yards. While Marcus Mariota is a downgrade from Matt Ryan, Delanie Walker finished TE3 in total targets in 2017 when Mariota was the starter for Tennessee.
Tier 3-High Floor/Low Ceiling: Dalton Schultz, TJ Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Albert Okwuegbunam
While playing behind Noah Fant in 2021, Okwuegbunam registered interesting ancillary efficiency metrics. His 2.46 yards per route run ranked as TE4 last season behind Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle. Okwuegbunam’s target separation also ranked fourth behind only former teammate Noah Fant, Anthony Firkser, and Dallas Goedert. He falls into tier three because he may be limited with opportunities with the other fantasy-relevant pieces of the Denver offense: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.
Cole Kmet took over as the TE1 in Chicago last season, reducing Jimmy Graham‘s production to only 14 receptions on 23 targets. Kmet has already ascended into top-10 TE targets, finishing with 93 and 8th overall at the position. Just like Kyle Pitts, Kmet is a strong candidate to bounce back in the TD category, registering zero scores- an unprecedented feat given his target volume. With a 17.7% target share already in 2021, Jimmy Graham off the team, and minimal pass-catching help added by the Bears front office, Kmet is primed for a high-floor season in Chicago.
Tier 4- Low Floor/High Ceiling: Dawson Knox, Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith, Robert Tonyan, Hunter Henry, David Njoku, Gerald Everett, Hayden Hurst, Noah Fant
When Jacoby Brissett took over as QB for the Indianapolis Colts in 2017, Jack Doyle registered the fifth most TE targets and second-highest TE target share (24.6%). Then, again in 2019, when Brissett stepped in for a retired Andrew Luck, Doyle and Eric Ebron combined for 124 targets and a 30.3% target share. Despite splitting targets nearly his whole career with other TEs, Njoku has 12 career top-10 weekly PPR finishes in 63 games (about 19% of career games). With Austin Hooper in Tennessee and a lucrative contract extension, Njoku is a prime candidate for late-round spike weeks for the Browns.
Like Kyle Pitts, Gesicki plays TE more like a wide receiver than a traditional TE role. Gesicki’s median target share in 2021 was 18.4%, with seven of his 17 weeks at least eclipsing a 20% target share while also finishing as the TE4 in total targets only behind Andrews, Kelce and Zach Ertz. Gesicki has finished as a top-10 PPR TE in 14 of his last 47 games in the NFL. Gesicki’s ADP of TE13 indicates that he may be one of the best values offering ceiling potential in the 11th round of drafts.
Tier 5-Dead Zone: Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee, Evan Engram
The 2021 second-round pick for Pittsburgh broke out in a big way, scoring six of his seven TDs on the season from Weeks 8-18. However, in games where Freiermuth didn’t score a TD from Week 8 onward, he averaged eight PPR fantasy points, on average, a weekly finish of TE17. Freiermuth’s median target share for 2021 was only 13.2%. From Week 7 onward, Freiermuth’s median target share was 16%. And yet, he’s being drafted as a top-12 TE on most sites. With improved downfield play from Mitchell Trubisky or 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett, Freiermuth may experience fewer targets, depending more on TDs for fantasy points than his current ADP indicates.
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