Going into Saturday, if you followed the advice in this column for last week, you’re streaming a 2.42 ERA with two wins, two quality starts, and 28 Ks in 22.2 IP, which isn’t bad at all. Cobb didn’t start on Friday due to a hamstring injury, and as of publication, Aaron Ashby hasn’t started today’s game.
- Aaron Ashby W 1, QS 1, ER 1, K 12, BB 2, IP 6
- Devin Smeltzer W 1, QS 1, ER 2, K 4, BB 0, IP 6.2
- Jeffrey Springs W 0, QS 0, ER 2, K 7, BB 1, IP 5
- Adrian Houser W 0, QS 0, ER 1, K 5, BB 3, IP 5
- Alex Cobb, DTD (hamstring)
Total: W 2, QS 2, ER 6, K 28, BB, IP 22.2
What comes next from June 6 to June 12? Jon Gray might serve you well as a two-start pitcher for weekly leagues. However, if you’re interested in speculating on a possible keepable commodity, grab Edward Cabrera if he’s still on your waiver wire. It’s worth picking him up, even if you fade him against Houston and monitor the results. It’s a safe bet that he’ll stick in the rotation if he can show consistency against tougher matchups.
Let’s get to this week’s streamers. Here are the arbitrary rules I’ve set for myself. First, I can only select pitchers rostered in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues (this maximizes the usefulness of this article for managers). Second, I absolutely MUST choose a pitcher every day, even if it’s scarier than putting herring on a pizza.
*At publication, I use probable starters listed on CBS Sports on Saturday, June 4.
Monday, June 6
Jon Gray (TEX) at CLE 22%
If I told you a pitcher was sporting an xFIP of 3.53 (SIERA 3.64) with a 43.5% GB% and both a slider and a changeup with an xBA around .200 or lower, how quickly would you guess Jon Gray? And doesn’t it feel like Jon Gray has been around since the 90s? Jon Gray was a popular sleeper pick in the offseason, but he suffered a knee sprain in early April that has continued to bother him. But on June 1, he struck out a dozen Rays in seven innings. He found success peppering the zone with sliders down and into right-handed hitters, changeups low and away, and the high cheese. There aren’t many options that I’m comfortable with on Monday, so let’s see if Gray can keep it up against the Guardians and consider holding him for a start later in the week (perhaps depending on how this one goes).
Other option: None
Tuesday, June 7
Jose Quintana (PIT) vs. DET 19%
I would highlight Ashcraft, but his BABIP (.200) and LOB% (90.4%) are worrisome. Arizona has actually been swinging the bat a little better in the last two weeks, and Great American Ball Park has humbled me in the past. I suggest monitoring Ashcraft to see if he can repeat his success with the slider. Instead, I give you a matchup between the two lowest-scoring teams in baseball. Quintana has been successful this year, with a 2.32 ERA. However, his expected stats put him over a full point higher. He’s walking fewer hitters (but he’s had fewer strikeouts too). He’s managed to induce nearly 7% more soft contact, and he’s limiting the home-run ball.
Other option: Graham Ashcraft (CIN) vs ARI 7% or Mitch White (LAD) at CHW 4%
Wednesday, June 8
Alex Faedo (DET) at PIT 6%
The problem today is that most pitchers are owned, or the matchup is too scary, so this could easily be qualified as the best matchup of the day (based on our streaming restrictions). Both teams are at the bottom in runs scored, so it may be challenging to get a Win. Faedo was Detroit’s first-round pick in the Amateur Draft in 2017. He has thrown the most innings at Double-A (115.1 innings), achieving a 10.46 K/9 and a solid 1.95 BB/9. His ERA in that season was 3.90 (3.57 FIP and 2.96 xFIP). He seems to get more SwStr% in games where he can confidently mix in his changeup more often. You can go with JT Brubaker below, but he struggled against Arizona last time and puts more men on base via the free pass.
Other option: JT Brubaker (PIT) vs. DET 11%
Thursday, June 9
Zach Eflin (PHI) at MIL 20%
If you could sleep through today’s waiver-wire pitching options, please do so. Just keep hitting the snooze button. It’s not a great day to stream AT ALL. But I won’t complain. I prefer Ashby in this matchup, but if you didn’t pick him up last week, he’s now rostered in 64% of Yahoo leagues. Still, Eflin shut out the Angels through eight innings on June 3. And he’s been solid in most of his matchups this year, as long as they do NOT come against the Mets. Actually, if we cut out those two starts against the Mets, he has a sparkling 2.24 ERA, with 38 K’s in 40.2 IP. Overall, he has a 3.88 ERA (2.53 xERA, 3.05 FIP). Let’s go for it.
Other option: Nah
Friday, June 10
Glen Otto (TEX) at CHW 6%
Otto hasn’t walked this many batters since he was in High-A in 2019. He has a 4.58 BB/9. Here’s a pitcher still trying to put it all together. In his last outing, his curveball achieved an otherworldly 52.2% CSW%. This is the most we’ve seen him throw the bender in a single game, at 23.2% (most of his other outings see him throwing the curve around 10% or lower). Maybe this is worth monitoring. His best outing was against the Angels on May 25, where he struck out seven and only walked two batters. One major difference is connected to those walks. On May 25, he located the changeup at the bottom of the zone for a strike more often. Let’s see if he can repeat it here.
Other option: None
Saturday, June 11
Edward Cabrera (MIA) at HOU 22%
With a 43% CSW last week against the Rockies, the man to monitor this week is Miami’s much-heralded (but yet to deliver in the big leagues) pitcher Edward Cabrera. He had a 5.81 ERA in 26.1 IP in 2021, which means many managers will leave him on waivers. It may cost you a spot on your roster longer than you like, but I will make a really bold play. I’m picking him up and starting him against Houston. In the last two weeks, Houston is 28th in runs scored. That’s a small sample. But c’mon! Are you a fantasy manager or a fantasy mouse? He’s got a 96 mph changeup, and while I am worried a little about the difference in speeds, the movement plays well. In that game against Colorado, here is every pitch and its CSW%: changeup (45.7%), 4-seamer (47.1%), curveball (42.9%), and the slider (27.8%). These are fierce numbers, and I for one would like to see if he can keep it up against the Astros.
Other options: Maybe Jason Alexander (MIL) at WAS 0%
Sunday, June 12
Jon Gray (TEX) at CWS 22%
K-rations. That’s the title of today’s pun headline because Chicago doesn’t strike out a lot. If you found Gray’s Monday start to be strong enough to hold onto him, then he is our guy for Sunday. I’ll offer some other possibilities below. The former 3rd overall pick in the 2013 draft is slated to face the White Sox, who’ve struggled offensively this year, ranking 27th in runs-scored. As I said, they are not prone to the strikeout, so we might not be able to bank a bunch of K’s. But there aren’t a lot of strikeout pitchers on the waivers for today anyway.
Other options: Dakota Hudson (STL) vs. CIN 14%, Konnor Pilkington (CLE) vs. OAK 1%, Adrian Houser (MIL) at WAS 23%
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