Like my grandpa used to say, “By the time the lawn needs cutting before the end of every week, it’s often harder to find decent pitchers on the waiver wire.” The general point of this (made-up) saying is that the onset of summer usually means slim pickings for pitchers on the waiver wire in fantasy baseball. It’s particularly tough if we’re following my restrictions, where each pitcher must be rostered in less than 30% of Yahoo leagues. Nevertheless, a few gunslingers with decent opponents still garner some interest.
Here are the best candidates.
I have a couple of two-start pitchers worth targeting this week in Alex Faedo (CSW and TEX) and Zach Eflin (MIA and WAS). The most interesting one-game show is Jakob Junis at home against Kansas City on Wednesday, but he left Friday’s game with a hamstring strain. I’ve included him here, but his start is questionable. To replace him, I suggest a cheat code this week in Spencer Strider, who is slightly outside my required 30% rostership, and he’s worth our attention.
Here’s to a glorious week of streaming!
*At publication, I use probable starters listed on CBS Sports on Saturday, May 11.
Monday, June 13
Alex Faedo (DET) vs. CSW 9%
I streamed Faedo last week against the Pirates. He pitched five innings with 7 K’s and only gave up one earned run. I realize that Detroit is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, so it will be hard to get a Win here. And he’s got a date with the White Sox, who’ve been scoring more recently. But given the options on waivers (see grandpa’s comment above), he’s still an ideal candidate. His CSW% on June 8th was 32.9%, with his slider as the most effective pitch in his arsenal at a whopping 46.2%. With that said, he still has a 6.81 K/9 on the season. The good news is that Faedo has shown more punchout potential in the previous two outings, and in his last 26 minor league games, he was never below a 10 K/9. There is plenty of room for improvement, and he owns a history that says improvement is possible. If he can control that slider in Detroit on Monday, he could give us a successful outing.
Other option: None
Tuesday, June 14
Zach Eflin (PHI) vs. MIA 26%
I streamed Eflin last week as well. While he didn’t hurt us, he didn’t help us much either. He only went four innings against Milwaukee, yielding one run and striking out two batters. None of his pitches seemed as effective as his previous start against the Halos. I would like to point out that the xBA on his fastball and curveball sits below .170. In his last game, the cutter was getting him into some trouble. Where he managed a CSW% of 37.5% in his previous two outings, he only managed 25% against the Brew Crew.
Moreover, he has started to throw his fastball up in the zone more, and it’s hard to tell if that is by design (there is a trend in baseball involving more high fastballs) or a failure to locate his pitch. In any case, we hope he adjusts at home against Miami, particularly since many of the numbers we rely on still support him. His 3.76 ERA is accompanied by a 2.75 xERA on Fangraphs and a 3.42 FIP. Let’s see if he can bring some of these skills back to the surface.
Other option: David Peterson (NYM) vs. MIL 11%
Wednesday, June 15
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. WAS 41%
I prefer Junis here, but as of this writing, he has a hamstring strain. A couple of pitchers this week fall outside our 30% rostership requirement. However, I like to point them out because they may be worth picking up (and holding) in your league if they’re available. Junis is one of them if he’s healthy. Strider also falls in that category. In his previous outing, he dominated Pittsburgh. Yes, yes, I know it’s the Pirates, but still. He went 5.2 innings and managed eight strikeouts. He didn’t give up a single run and got the Win. Let’s face it. He’s on a good team. The Nationals do not strike out a ton, but Strider has got closer-like skills, tossing that fastball at 100 mph before dropping in that slider at 88 mph. He does have a changeup that he throws around 5% of the time. His ERA of 2.35 (1.99 FIP, 2.82 xFIP) points to an ability to keep the runs to a minimum. I like that he has some wiggle room for error, too. We tend to cancel closers when they give up a run, but it’s part of everyday life for starters. “He’s just settling in,” we say. Finally, in his entire minor league career, he never had a K/9 lower than 13.43.
Other option: If he’s healthy, Jakob Junis (SF) vs. KC 32%
Thursday, June 16
Rich Hill (BOS) vs. OAK 12%
There aren’t too many options with nine games on the slate for Thursday, but let’s go with good ol’ Rich Hill for this one. He’s got a great matchup. Oakland ranks 29th in runs-scored (77), and Boston has surged into 1st place in runs-scored (169). What a remarkable difference! He threw his 4-seam fastball more in his previous outing, getting a 45% CSW%. His GB% went out the window in that game, so hopefully, he bounces back. I don’t stream Hill for the punchouts. I’m hoping he can go five innings and give us a Win, which I admit he doesn’t do very often. I’m looking for a pitcher who won’t hurt me and could provide me with sneaky value. He’s been controlling the game more by walking fewer guys and inducing soft contact. In fact, according to Fangraphs, his soft contact is up nearly 7% from last year. If he can pitch to harmless contact and qualify as a starter with a lead, we might slink away with a win on the day.
Other option: None
Friday, June 17
Jon Gray (TEX) at DET 27%
It does feel like we should avoid Gray after his last outing. But what can I say? I like food that is a little too spicy; I like roller coasters that go a little too high; I like starting Jon Gray against weaker teams. On June 1st, he went seven innings and struck out 12 batters. On June 7th, he struck out three batters through five innings and gave up a painful five earned runs. And yet…his 5.28 ERA sits next to a 3.87 FIP. Maybe he’s the Alex Cobb of Texas. Even if he gives us six innings at an ERA around 4.00, there aren’t that many pitchers on waivers (rostered in less than 30%) who could provide us with a repeat of that 12 punchouts. Let’s give him one more go, and if it doesn’t work, I promise to avoid streaming him until he shows more consistency.
Other option: Devin Smeltzer (MIN) at ARI 22%
Saturday, June 18
Alex Faedo (DET) vs. TEX 9%
I think it might be worth picking up Ashcraft (below) and holding. However, if I choose a pitcher that falls within my restrictions, I’m flipping from the Texas pitcher on Friday to the Detroit pitcher on Saturday. He’s our two-start (hopeful) champion of the week, Faedo. He’s 18-months removed from Tommy John surgery, and everything I said about him on Monday applies here. I do not think Faedo is a hold, regardless of how well he pitches this week. Overall, he’s faced weaker teams like Cleveland, Oakland, and Pittsburgh (though he did well against Minnesota and Tampa Bay, too); he also plays for a weak lineup. But he’s exactly the kind of pitcher you stream. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in each of his seven starts. We ride the hot hand sometimes against an average lineup and hope for the best. That’s the thrill of the stream.
Other options: Graham Ashcraft (CIN) vs. MIL 33% and Brad Keller (KC) at OAK 12%
Sunday, June 19
Zach Eflin (PHI) at WAS 26%
Again, I’ll send Eflin to the bump for my fake team with this week’s second two-start pitcher. With six pitches to fool hitters and a lineup that has a chance to dominate on any given night, Eflin is still possible gold on the waivers. With a sinker that induces a GB% of 52.6% and a curveball that follows close behind at 40% (the pitches he throws the most), he’s got my interest. Also, his fastball, the next pitch he throws, has an xBA of .145. So put him in and try to be confident about it.
Other options: Dane Dunning (TEX) at DET 14% or Brady Singer (KC) at OAK 24% or maybe Chris Archer (MIN) at ARI 4%
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