In dynasty leagues, player values are constantly changing, and you need to stay on top of these changes to be successful long-term. This dynasty stock report comes in as I discuss four players each week, two on the rise and two falling, both at the MLB level and in the minors as well.
This week’s report features a pre-season top-five prospect, a former top-five MLB draft pick, a dominating first base prospect, and a former MLB ace returning to fantasy glory.
MLB Riser
Luis Severino (SP – NYY)
Back in 2017 and 2018, Luis Severino was one of the most coveted pitchers to have in dynasty leagues. The young, emerging ace was coming off back-to-back seasons of top-notch performance and looked poised to establish himself as one of the elite aces for fantasy purposes.
But unfortunately, injuries limited Severino to a combined 18 innings in 2019-2021, dropping his value heading into 2022. Now 10 starts into the season, Severino is quickly returning his value to pre-2019 levels with how dominant he’s looked. In 55 innings, Severino has posted a 2.95 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.3% walk rate, and a 27.6% strikeout rate. Of the 79 pitchers with 50+ innings this season, Severino ranks 11th in strikeout rate and 13th with a 21.3% K-BB.
While his velocity isn’t quite as high as in 2018 (97.6 mph), Severino is still averaging 96.3 mph on his four-seamer with a .180 BAA and .270 wOBA. His dominant slider has also returned with the pitch recording a .150 BAA, .204 wOBA, and 45.8% whiff rate this season. However, Severino has decreased his slider usage rate to 16.7%, down around 10%, while throwing more changeups and cutters, the latter of which he began throwing in his brief 2021 stint. Both the cutter and changeup have been able to miss bats at a high rate, with a 53.3% and 32.7% whiff rate, respectively. Overall, Severino’s 30.9% whiff rate is well above MLB average.
Given Severino’s previous dominance and current performance, I’m comfortable saying he’s back in the top-20 dynasty SP discussion. He’s still only 28 years old and just needs to continue proving that his injury issues are behind him.
MLB Faller
I’ve been waiting for Ian Anderson to pitch like the Ian Anderson we’ve seen for parts of the last two seasons, but I’m not sure that Anderson is walking through that door any time soon. And when you look at his three Major League seasons, Anderson hasn’t been able to replicate the magic from his rookie season back in 2020, where he had a 1.95 ERA and 29.7% strikeout rate in six starts.
Maintaining a sub-2.00 ERA is difficult for anyone, but Anderson has quickly turned into a starter with a profile that’s unappealing for fantasy purposes. His strikeout rate continues to fall, and he doesn’t have the ratios to make up for it anymore.
In 10 starts this season, Anderson has recorded a 4.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and has seen his strikeout rate drop to a career-low 19.5% – all while walking batters at a high clip. Anderson’s low 9.1% K-BB rate even ranks 11th worst among the 79 starters with 50+ innings this season.
It all comes down to command for Anderson, an area where he’s consistently proven to struggle. He’s giving up too much contact inside the strike zone, and his hard-hit rate has risen to 43.8% this season. He’s also 5.3% worse than league average at first-pitch strikes. All these little things are beginning to add up, making Anderson hard to defend right now. He’s still worth rostering, but he’s more of a top-200 to a top-250 player for dynasty right now after creeping close to top-100 value a year ago.
MiLB Riser
How have I done eight Dynasty Stock Reports this season and not used Vinnie Pasquantino as the MiLB riser yet? I’m not sure if I should be more impressed or disappointed with myself. Maybe I just assumed I gushed about Pasquantino enough on various platforms, but who knows. Today, we will right this wrong and gush about Vinnie P a little more because he certainly deserves it.
All Pasquantino has done this season is dominate Triple-A pitching and make the Royals look downright foolish for not calling him up to play over the rotting corpse of Carlos Santana, who can’t even hit near his weight. In 51 games this season, Pasquantino has slashed .284/.375/.628 with 14 doubles, 15 home runs, and a .344 ISO across 216 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for more power this season than he did in 2021 (37 2B, 24 HR, .563 SLG, .263 ISO), but Pasquantino is doing so while maintaining his stellar plate approach with a 12% walk rate and 14.4% strikeout rate.
Pasquantino is the only prospect have a walk rate above 12%, strikeout rate below 15%, and an ISO above .300 this season. For reference, the only Major League hitter to meet those three thresholds right now is someone named Jose Ramirez. Maybe you’ve heard of him.
Pasquantino combines a plus-hit tool, elite approach, and plus power into an offensive package that gives him top-10 potential at the first base position long-term, maybe even top-five. He’s ready for the Majors, and it shouldn’t be long before Kansas City stops acting foolish and calls him up. If you thought his stock was skyrocketing now, wait until he starts displaying these skills on baseball’s highest level.
MiLB Faller
After ascending into my top-five last season and as high as No. 3 overall, this was the time we were supposed to be talking about Noelvi Marte as one of the new No. 1 overall prospect candidates following the graduations of Bobby Witt Jr.and Julio Rodriguez. Not so fast. While the likes of Corbin Carroll and Robert Hassell have put themself into that conversation along with a few others, Marte has underwhelmed this season.
In 46 games, Marte has racked up only five home runs and five steals with a lackluster .249/.343/.389 slash line. He hasn’t been terrible and still possesses the raw tools to make an impact in fantasy. Yet, this season’s performance pushes him out of the top-five overall, down to the back-end of my top-20. That slide will continue if he doesn’t pick it up offensively and on the bases.
As I mentioned, Marte’s performance hasn’t been terrible, and his walk, strikeout, and power metrics have only declined moderately. However, it’s still a solid step back for Marte’s overall fantasy value. He’s still a top-25 prospect for now, so don’t just trade him for the sake of selling him. But if you can still get a top-10 prospect value return for him via trade, it’s worth considering. On the flip side, if you don’t have Marte in dynasty and can acquire him for a solid discount, I’d be intrigued if I was rebuilding.
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