In dynasty leagues, player values are constantly changing, and you need to stay on top of these changes to succeed long-term. This dynasty stock report comes in as I discuss four players each week, two on the rise and two falling, both at the MLB level and in the minors as well.
This week’s report unintentionally has a Vanderbilt vibe, with three of the four players discussed below attending the university in the past.
MLB Riser: Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL)
To start, let’s go back to April 20th. After an 0/3 performance against the Dodgers that day, Swanson’s season line slumped to .143/.208/.224 with two RBI, three runs scored, and zero homers or steals through his first 53 plate appearances. That’s a tiny sample size but apparently large enough for a mass exodus by his fantasy managers that were too impatient to give this top-100 talent more time to find his footing this season. Suppose you’re one of the managers that scooped him up when he was dropped, congratulations. If you’re one of the impatient people that dropped him, I’m not even going to say sorry. You brought this on yourself.
In 216 plate appearances since April 20th, Swanson has slashed .328/.398/.521 with nine home runs, nine steals, 35 RBI, and 36 runs scored. Among the 21 qualified shortstops in that timeframe, Swanson ranks 1st in wOBA and SLG, and trails only Xander Bogaerts in AVG, OBP, and wRC+. He’s also 5th in ISO, 2nd in HR, 3rd in RBI, 2nd in runs, and 4th in steals. His dominant last two months have vaulted him up to 22nd on the Razzball Player Rater, right between Sandy Alcantara and Alek Manoah.
When digging deeper into Swanson’s metrics, he’s having arguably his best season ever under the hood. In addition to having a barrel rate above 10% for the fourth consecutive season, Swanson currently has the best AVG EV and hard-hit rate of his career while also ranking in the top-25% of the league in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and spring speed. His strikeout remains a tad high at 27.1% but that’s where Swanson has settled in over the last few seasons.
His AVG will likely regress though due to his higher whiff and strikeout rate, but Swanson is proving to be one of the better power/speed blends at the shortstop position with a real chance to finish with a .270+/25/25 line at the end of the season. He’s moved back up into my top-100 overall with the opportunity to rise even more.
MLB Faller: Walker Buehler (SP – LAD)
Entering the season, Walker Buehler was considered a top-5 pitcher both for redraft and dynasty leagues. Now, three months later, I’m not sure he’s even top-10 for dynasty anymore. Buehler is currently dealing with an elbow injury that will keep him out until at least September (also had bone spurs removed), and it’s not like the two-time all-star was pitching well before the injury either.
In 12 starts this season, Buehler put up a 4.02 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 65 innings with a 6.2% walk rate and 21.2% strikeout rate. Both his 21.2% strikeout rate and 15% K-BB rate are Buehler’s worst marks since his rookie season in 2017 when he only pitched 9.1 innings of relief. So, what’s gone wrong with Buehler this season? To summarize it briefly; his four-seamer.
Buehler throws three different fastballs, but his four-seamer has been a major issue this season. The metrics are terrible on his sinker as well, but that’s an offering he only throws 4.7% of the time. With the four-seamer, Buehler has recorded a demoralizing .368 BAA, .618 SLG, and .461 wOBA with expected metrics just as bad. This after posting .202, .366, and .292 marks respectively in 2021. Buehler has also seen his whiff rate on the pitch decrease from 20.3% to 13.2% while allowing a 92 mph EV and51.5% hard-hit rate.
Outside of the four-seamer and sinker, the rest of Buehler’s offerings have been just as effective as in previous seasons. But when your fastball gets hit as frequently and as hard as Buehler’s has this season, that’s not a recipe for success. Buehler’s four-seamer went from a -19 run value (very good) last season per Baseball Savant to a +11 (Not so good) this season.
Now, moving forward, I’m still expecting Buehler to be very good once he returns from injury. But just how good is the ultimate question. Is Buehler still a top-5 arm in 2023 and beyond? No. Top-10? Probably not, but maybe. If Buehler can fix his fastball, even if it’s not to 2021 levels, he’s still a top-20 pitcher and potentially a back-end ace. However, he’s going to need to start missing more bats again, at least getting his strikeout rate back above 25% if he’s going to be considered an ace moving forward. Another area that will need to improve is his zone contact rate which sits at 85.1% this season. Both his whiff and zone contact rates have gotten worse in each of the last two seasons.
MiLB Riser: Joey Wiemer (OF – MIL)
Every fall, I’m fortunate to be able to travel nearly 3,000 miles across the country to Arizona for Baseball HQ’s First Pitch event along with the Arizona Fall League. And in the week I was out there watching AFL games last October, Joey Wiemer was one of the most impressive prospects I saw.
Wiemer’s breakout began in 2021 when he racked up 27 homers and 30 steals in just 109 games with a .296/.403/.556 slash line between Lo-A and Hi-A. Many bought into the breakout but also noted him being a tad old for the level along with some swing and miss tendencies. Those swing and miss issues have resulted in an even higher strikeout rate this season in Double-A at 29%, but Wiemer continues to display a majestic power/speed blend with a walk rate close to 10%.
In 248 plate appearances (54 games), Wiemer has 17 doubles, 14 home runs, and 18 steals while only being caught once. His plus or better raw power has translated consistently into game action over the last two years, recording a .556 SLG and .260 ISO last season and .538 and .264 respectively this season. Wiemer has easy 30-homer potential longterm as long as he’s able to make enough contact to maximize his power potential. One positive note in that regard is that Milwaukee has left his quirky swing alone. They appear to have confidence in Wiemer’s bat and everyone else should as well.
Wiemer’s 25/25 upside makes him an extremely attractive target in dynasty leagues. Even if his AVG is more in the .260 range, that power/speed makes him an easy top-25 prospect right now with top-100 overall fantasy upside down the road. Wiemer is legit.
MiLB Faller: Jack Leiter (SP – TEX)
Let me begin by saying that this is in no way me saying that I think Jack Leiter is bad or won’t have a productive Major League career. But this is me wondering if he’ll ever be a frontline starting pitcher as many have expected from him since he broke out at Vanderbilt. Having his Major league bloodlines also helped add fuel to that fire. There’s no doubting Leiter’s stuff can make him a frontline starter. He possesses one of the best fastballs in the minor leagues with a trio of solid secondary offerings. However, Leiter’s command and control haven’t been there consistently, especially control.
After being held out of action following the draft last season, which is what Texas usually does, Leiter has really struggled this season in Double-A. In his first 44.2 innings, Leiter has posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP along with a 27.5% strikeout rate. However, that has also come with an 11.3% walk rate. Now, that’s not terrible, but it’s hard to develop to the level expected of Leiter with a walk rate that high.
Leiter has always posted higher walk rates. Even back when he was dominating at Vanderbilt, Leiter had a 13.3% walk rate in 15.2 innings in 2020 and a 10.5% rate in 110 innings in 2021. I’m not going to use the term “bullpen risk” yet and he’s certainly still a top-100 overall fantasy prospect, but Leiter’s stock in dynasty leagues is sliding a bit right now.
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