We have made it through another week of the season, and that means we have another set of players to Buy High or Sell Low based on their weekly performances. Based on their recent performances and a full-season outlook, I will break down some players to buy or sell in the coming weeks. It is still challenging to get a great feel on a player as many underlying metrics have not had enough time to develop fully, but we are getting closer as we have played a little over a month of baseball. With all of that said, let’s look at a handful of players that you should buy high or sell low.
Buy High
This is a captain’s obvious selection, but I wanted to give Alvarez his proper due as he is cementing himself as one of the best hitters in the game. He mashed with 13 hits in his past week’s six games, including four home runs. In addition, Alvarez only struck out one time all week with a 31.8% barrel rate and 77.3% hard-hit rate.
Alvarez is now hitting .295 with 16 home runs, an excellent 12.9% walk rate, and a solid 16.3% strikeout rate. Alvarez puts the ball in play a lot, and that usually ends well with a 19.1% barrel rate and 65.2% hard-hit rate. His numbers are great this season, but his xStats suggest he should be even better. If you can somehow buy Alvarez, you definitely should, as he may finish the season with 40+ home runs and a batting average of around .300.
I’ve been preaching patience when it comes to Teoscar, and for those that have been patient, he is starting to pay off. He hit safely in five of six games this past week for a .400 batting average. Teoscar tallied six extra-base hits, including a home run with a stolen base. He was barreling the ball an impressive 35% of the time to go with a 55% hard-hit rate. Teoscar is looking like the Teoscar of last year. He would be a heavy trade target for me as his overall numbers still do not look great, but he may still go at least 20/10 the rest of the season.
Tommy Edman (2B, SS, OF – STL)
Edman continues to produce atop the Cardinals order and this past week was no exception. He hit safely in six of seven games with a home run and four stolen bases. It is nice that Edman has been flexing his muscle a bit this season but even more excellent that he is running wild. After this past week, Edman now has five home runs and 14 stolen bases to go with a fantastic 44 runs scored. So if you are looking for a speed/runs source, look no further than Edman.
Ashby has cemented himself into an every fifth-day role in the Brewers’ rotation, and for good reasons. This past week, he had an exciting 2-step where he threw six innings in each start, allowing five runs and most impressively struck out 21. Ashby had an impressive 32.6% O-swing with a measly 62.4% contact rate and a most impressive 18.1% SwStr. Ashby has been outstanding this season with a 30.5% strikeout rate and 34.1% CSW. If he can improve on the 11.2% walk rate, the sky would be the limit for the young Brewers hurler.
Gore continued his incredible season in his one start this past week, where he threw six shutout innings while striking out ten. Gore dominated the Brewers by forcing a 30.5% O-swing and 13% SwStr. Gore now has a 30% strikeout rate on the season with an elite 21.1% K-BB and solid 2.22 FIP. There may be a hiccup or two coming for Gore, but overall he has been outstanding, and the only thing that should stop him this season is a potential inning’s limit.
Sell Low
McCutchen is having a horrible 2022 season and this past week was not much better. He did collect three hits in his final game of the week, but that gave him four hits for the entire week. McCutchen only had a 4.2% barrel rate with a 33.3% hard-hit rate. Cutch is now hitting .216 with three home runs and three stolen bases. He is striking out nearly 23% of the time with a .088 ISO and 60 wRC+. Cutch has had a great career, but this seems to be the beginning of the end.
Moustakas has been battling injuries off and on all season, and as I was writing this, he went on the IL again. He collected only two hits this past week with one run and one RBI. Not what you want from a potential power source. Moose was not making good contact as he had a 0.0% barrel rate and 28.6% hard-hit rate. Moose is now hitting .200 on the season with three home runs and a lovely 78 wRC+. It is time to move on from the former power source.
Rinse and repeat. Hiura struggles in the bigs and then goes to the minors and rakes. People get excited when he returns, and he disappoints again. This past week was this story in a nutshell. This past week Hiura had three hits and a stolen base, but the most significant issue he has always had is strikeouts, and he struck out 53.6% of the time. In addition, Hiura had a 40.6% O-swing to go with a 48.3% contact rate and an abysmal 26.1% SwStr. We all know Hiura can make loud contact when he makes contact, but he just can’t make consistent contact in the bigs, and for that reason, he should not be on your fantasy roster.
I may be overreacting, but I have been concerned with Buehler. This past week’s 2-step did not help with those concerns. He threw only 8.1 innings over his two starts, including 2.1 innings in his second start, which was one of the shortest outings of his career. Buehler allowed nine runs over the two starts and two home runs in each start. This past week he was not fooling anyone as the opponents were barreling the ball 16% of the time with a 52% hard-hit rate. Buehler has now allowed 18 runs over his last five starts (24.1 innings) and is struggling to be the ace he could be. Someone in your league may think he is still a fantasy SP1 and if so, trade him immediately.
Lorenzen has shown signs of life this season, but this week’s start was not one of them. He threw 5.2 innings in Philadelphia and allowed five runs while walking five. He did strike out nine, which is excellent, but the runs and the walks are a significant concern. In May, Lorenzon allowed 17 runs over 38.1 IP and walked 14. His 9% K-BB in May is less than ideal, and as long as the walks are as prevalent as they are, he will not be a consistent fantasy asset.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
