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Dynasty Trade Value Fallers: Ryan Tannehill, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyler Lockett (2022 Fantasy Football)


 
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Dynasty Trade Value Fallers

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
Dynasty Trade Value (1QB/SF): 6/29 (-1/-3)

A.J. Brown‘s absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill‘s fantasy success as a Titan. Even with Treylon Burks in the fold, it’s hard to get overly excited about the Tennessee QB in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses devoid of any elite, proven pass-catchers. He got exposed without offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and weapons last season in 2021, finishing the season with his lowest passer rating to date as a Titan (88.1, 23rd). Tannehill’s passer rating off play-action throws also fell off (96.1 versus 109.5). 2022 is going to be a rude awakening for Tannehill, who has the largest cap hit in the NFL this year ($38.6M).

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
Dynasty Trade Value: 68 (-3)

The injury concerns for Christian McCaffrey are justified. Since 2020 he’s dealt with an ankle sprain, thigh injury, AC joint sprain, and high ankle sprain, missing 18 games. When he’s on the field, though, he’s still a top-three running back. Last season in the five games he played at least 48% of the snaps, he averaged 20.1 (0.5 PPR) fantasy points per game. This would have placed him as the RB3 in weekly fantasy scoring behind only Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)
Dynasty Trade Value: 47 (-5)

Kenneth Walker could also emerge from camp as the starter. Walker’s 99th percentile college dominator and 96th percentile speed score will be a welcome sight for Pete Carroll. We know the Seahawks want to establish the hell out of it with one of Drew Lock or Geno Smith looking like a possible Week 1 starter at quarterback. Since 2018 the Seahawks are third in neutral script rushing rate, so the volume will be there to support one elite-level back or tandem of backs with weekly RB2 or high RB3 potential.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
Dynasty Trade Value: 29 (-4)

Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a down season where some of this could be related to the fact he dealt with a partially torn PCL for much of the season (since Week 4). The spliced-up workload and his declining effectiveness could result from the injury or his advancing age and the toll that the NFL has taken on him. Elliott has amassed 1,938 touches (22 per game) over his six-year career, never handling less than 268 touches in any season. Elliott should be viewed as an RB2 in many formats that could slowly dissolve into a high-end RB3 if Tony Pollard gets more run in 2022.

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
Dynasty Trade Value: 34 (-4)

Jahan Dotson should immediately start in two wide receiver sets opposite Terry McLaurin. Dotson’s 90th percentile college dominator and 95th percentile target share while at Penn State illuminate the caliber of player he is. The Commanders’ passing rate could cap Dotson’s ceiling this year if the coaching staff comes to the same realization that the Colts did. That Carson Wentz is nothing more than a glorified game manager at this point in his career. As erratic as Wentz is, Dotson should enjoy an upgrade over the collegiate quarterback play he suffered through. The lone bright spot for Wentz is if Dotson can use his speed to get loose deep, Wentz should be able to hit him in stride. Wentz was fourth in deep-ball accuracy last season.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
Dynasty Trade Value: 21 (-2)

Tyler Lockett is slipping down draft boards because of the impending dumpster fire that will be Geno Smith or Drew Lock at quarterback. Lockett was one of the most efficient wide receivers in football last season, so despite the obvious downgrade in quarterback play, there are reasons to remain hopeful for his 2022 season. Last year he ranked ninth in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and receiving yards per game. If Lockett can hold off father time one more season, he can return WR3 numbers with boom weeks still in the range of outcomes.

Noah Fant (TE – SEA)
Dynasty Trade Value: 17 (-3)

There was hope that a QB upgrade in Denver could take Fant to the next level. Unfortunately, Fant was part of the trade package that enabled the Broncos to acquire Russell Wilson. Fant is athletic and has demonstrated his pass-catching chops, but Seattle’s bleak QB situation is going to be a limiting factor.

Evan Engram (TE – JAC)
Dynasty Trade Value: 3 (-4)

Evan Engram‘s PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 – 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends. And he hasn’t disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard. Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram’s favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn’t always translate to fantasy success.

CTAs


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