Derek Brown’s Players to Target (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL season is approaching, which means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but it’s important to know which players you should not only target as values but also those you need to circle on your cheat sheets and prepare to reach for if needed. So here are Derek Brown’s top players to target in 2022 fantasy football drafts.

Derek Brown’s Players to Target

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)

Jalen Hurts has league-winning upside again this year. Last season before dealing with an injury, he was the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Before getting dinged up, he averaged 57.9 rushing yards per game, pacing toward a 1,000-yard rushing season (985). After the injury, he dipped to 29.7 rushing yards per game. The final part of the equation to push him over the top will come through the air with a full season of Hurts getting freaky in the open field.

With the arrival of A.J. Brown, the ascension of DeVonta Smith and the Eagles leaning more pass-heavy in 2022, Hurts could reach the hollow ground of top three quarterback status in fantasy. In Weeks 1-7, he averaged 245.1 passing yards per game (4,166 pace) before the team swerved and became run-centric. Along with the passing yardage boost, he could see touchdown regression. Last year among 33 quarterbacks with 200 or more pass attempts, Hurts was 23rd with a 3.7% passing touchdown rate. The runway is clear. The wheels are up. It’s time for Hurts to fly.

Justin Fields (QB – CHI)

The Justin Fields worries have reached critical mass. The concern has gone too far and I’ll be drafting Fields everywhere possible. Last season over his final four full starts, he was QB5, QB10, QB10, and QB10. This was accomplished with a nonexistent Allen Robinson impact. Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet were the main cogs in the Bears’ offense at that point, so Robinson’s loss is being overblown. We know the rushing will be a big part of his game. Over those final four games, it helped propel him up the scoring ranks as he averaged 64.2 yards per game. In his full starts after Week 7, he showed incredible growth. He was the 11th highest graded passer per PFF, seventh in big-time throw rate, and eighth in yards per attempt. This year, Luke Getsy will incorporate more play-action designs and easy completions via screens to help Fields. So invest in Fields in 2022 and enjoy.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)

With a stocked skill position depth chart and remade offensive line, Tua Tagovailoa is set to prove all the haters wrong. The Tagovailoa shade has been an interesting subject to dissect because it has little merit from a numbers standpoint. Last year Tagovailoa was an efficiency machine, ranking 12th in under pressure accuracy, fifth in clean pocket accuracy and sixth in deep-ball accuracy per Playerprofiler.com.

Yes, he rarely went deep last year, ranking 33rd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in deep passing rate, but problems along the offensive line and a lack of receiving weapons are also part of the equation. Tagovailoa suffered behind a line that was 14th in adjusted sack rate while throwing to a depth chart that consisted of a banged-up DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki and replacement-level players. The additions of Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson, Terron Armstead and Connor Williams will help immensely. The Dolphins will run the ball a good bit this year, but that doesn’t mean Tagovailoa can’t continue his highly efficient ways and outproduce his ADP.

Running backs

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)

Saquon Barkley is poised for a renaissance season. Last year, Barkley struggled with play-calling buffoonery, lingering injuries and a swiss cheese offensive line. He ranked 38th in yards after contact per attempt, which is a far cry from his sixth and ninth finishes in this metric in 2018 and 2019 (minimum 100 carries, per PFF). Brian Daboll and the new coaching staff have already promised a return to a zone rushing scheme for Barkley, with the front office putting the pieces in place to succeed.

Last season Barkley’s zone run percentage dipped to 50%, a steep decline from the 62.1% he saw in 2018-2019 (per PFF). The additions of Jon Feliciano and Mark Glowinski were masterstrokes. Feliciano was the 13th-highest-graded run-blocking guard in 2020 and ninth-best in zone run blocking per PFF (minimum 100 run-blocking snaps). Glowinski was the 18th-best zone blocking guard last season. Also, add in Evan Neal, and we have the makings of a line that will exceed their 31st ranking in adjusted line yards last season (per Football Outsiders). Barkley is primed to smash.

James Conner (RB – ARI)

With a new contract in tow, James Conner should reprise his bell-cow role from 2021. Conner didn’t hold that do-it-all usage the entire season, but he was ultra-productive when utilized in that manner. In Weeks 9-14, he played 77% or higher snaps in every game as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. He averaged 21.8 touches and 114.4 total yards per game. Darrell Williams will spell him occasionally, but he’s nowhere close to the same rushing talent. Last season Conner was 18th in yards created per touch and 14th in evaded tackles. Williams is a plus receiving back, but so is Conner. Last season he was ninth in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). Conner’s a locked-in top 12 running back in 2022.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

Breece Hall should crush expectations this year in a scheme tailor-made for him behind one of the best zone-blocking lines in the NFL. Last year the Jets were eighth in outside zone run rate, which could climb even higher with Hall’s arrival (per PFF). Hall rolled up 4.1 yards after contact per attempt in his final collegiate season and a 36% missed tackle rate on outside zone runs (per PFF).

The Jets already had two blockers in Connor McGovern (15th) and Laken Tomlinson (23rd), who were top 25 among all offensive linemen with 100 or more run-blocking snaps in zone-blocking grades per PFF last year. Then New York decided to add even more talent upfront with Max Mitchell. Last year he finished with the third-highest zone run-blocking grade among collegiate tackles (minimum 100 run-blocking snaps). So new York will feed their new franchise rusher.

Travis Etienne (RB – JAC)

Provided Travis Etienne is 100% healthy, he is in a situation that could lead to a blow-up season. First, let’s address the elephant in the room, James Robinson. Projecting Robinson to be ready to go Week 1 and back to his old self is a difficult pill to swallow. If Robinson is a shell of himself, Etienne is left battling for touches with Snoop Conner and a collection of has-beens and never-weres. We need to be kind and rewind and realize that Etienne was an electric prospect entering the league.

In his final two seasons at Clemson, he ranked first and 20th in yards after contact per attempt and 14th and fourth in yards per route run (minimum 100 rushing attempts, 20 targets per PFF). On the ground, Etienne has touchdown upside with Doug Pederson, who was 14th, 11th and tenth in red zone rushing rate in three of his five seasons in Philly. Etienne is competing with Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Laviska Shenault for targets through the air. Not an impressive group, huh? Exactly my point. I won’t be surprised if Etienne earns a D’Andre Swift-esque target share in 2022.

Wide receivers

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

Each new day is another excellent opportunity to draft Courtland Sutton. Sutton has rocket ship upside written all over him in 2022. Another year post ACL repair with a quarterback upgrade means he’s ready to return to the efficiency top shelf he briefly resided on after 2019. In that breakout season, he was 12th in yards per route run overall (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and seventh in this metric when targeted 20 plus yards down the field.

His injury in 2020 and quarterback dumpster fire in 2021 derailed his ascension into the league’s elite at the position. However, that train is now back on the tracks. Last season Sutton was sixth in deep targets among wide receivers. With this high-value role sewn up, the hype locomotive is full steam ahead to fantasy greatness.

Mike Williams (WR – LAC)

Could this finally be the season that Mike Williams surpasses Keenan Allen in fantasy football? The numbers all point to yes. Last season Williams came out of the gate on fire. Weeks 1-5, he commanded a 25.2% target share (16th), ranking 15th in weighted opportunity as the WR3 in fantasy. After that stretch, his production fell off before rebounding after Week 12 with a 20.8% target share as the WR17.

Allen has the look of a receiver who is quietly slowing down as his yards per route run has declined in each of the last five seasons. He also manufactured the lowest yards after the catch per reception of his career in 2021 (3.4, per PFF). Williams was among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL last season, ranking 15th in yards per route run and 18th in yards after the catch per reception (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Should you draft a receiver who could assume the leading role in a top-five scoring offense tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL? Yes. Yes, you should.

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)

After an up and down rookie season that was mired by injury and a limited role to begin the season, Rashod Bateman is ready to take the sophomore season leap. Bateman finished as a top 36 fantasy wide receiver in 50% of his games despite not having an 80% snap share until Week 15. He was thrust in an X role early on and thrived per route, ranking 26th in win rate against man coverage (per Playerprofiler.com).

Per Matt Harmon’s amazing #ReceptionPerception work, Bateman’s success rate was in the 85th percentile against zone coverage and 81st percentile versus press. Per Harmon’s findings, Bateman finished with a 73.7% success rate or higher on six of the 10 route types charted. Even in a run-first offense alongside Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown drew the 12th-highest target share (26.1%) last season, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy points per game. Bateman can match these numbers and has the talent profile to surpass them if everything breaks right.

Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG)

Kadarius Toney was lightning in a bottle when he was on the field in 2021. He was 11th in yards per route run and ninth in yards after the catch per reception (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). He also finished as the 33rd-highest-graded wide receiver per PFF, immediately ahead of Diontae Johnson in this sample. He also proved that he could win on the outside as he was 12th in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). His boom weeks look limited, with only one outing above 80 receiving yards, but digging deeper into his advanced stats, we find a highly effective player on a per route basis. In the seven games in which he ran at least 17 routes, he surpassed 1.6 yards per route run in four of them. With more playing time in an improved offensive system in 2022, Toney can cement himself as the Giants’ budding superstar.

Russell Gage (WR – TB)

Russell Gage can build upon last year’s superb showing with a quarterback upgrade in a better offensive environment. This season, Tom Brady will engineer an offensive onslaught that will be among the league leaders in raw passing volume, pace, and passing rate. With Chris Godwin recovering from an ACL tear and Mike Evans quietly showing his age, Gage could compete for the team lead in targets. Evans has seen his yards per route run decline in each of the last four seasons (per PFF). Gage was superb last year, ranking 17th in overall yards per route run and 11th against man coverage (per PFF). Brady could lean on Gage early on if Godwin is limited or out. If that comes to fruition, Gage could quickly become the avocado of his eye (dad joke alert).

Tight ends

Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL)

Dalton Schultz continues to climb higher and higher in my rankings. Schultz enters 2022 with the opportunity to build upon his TE5 season from last year. As good as Schultz was last season, he could earn even more volume in the upcoming campaign. In 2021 he was 11th in yards per route run and 12th in yards per target as Dak Prescott‘s trusted weapon. With Michael Gallup rehabbing a torn ACL and Jalen Tolbert or James Washington stepping up on the outside, Schultz can garner more looks from Prescott. Additionally, Schultz was 13th in target share and red zone targets in 2021. Both of those values could climb in 2022, propelling Schultz into top three territory at the tight end position.

Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)

Cole Kmet was one of the unluckiest players in the NFL when it came to touchdowns. Despite ranking 15th in red-zone targets and sixth in deep targets, Kmet could not enjoy an endzone dance in 2021. Outside of being allergic to touchdown celebrations, his volume was among the best at his position. Kmet was eighth in target volume, 11th in target share, and 12th in receptions and receiving yards. Now that Jimmy Graham and Allen Robinson are gone and only Darnell Mooney above him in the target tree, Kmet could smash last year’s volume numbers. With an improved offensive scheme and quarterback play from Justin Fields, Kmet could be one of the biggest surprises in 2022 at the position.

David Njoku (TE – CLE)

I covet athleticism and target upside at the tight end position, and you should love them too. David Njoku adamantly checks these boxes as we search for a late-round breakout. Njoku utilized his 97th percentile burst score and 81st percentile agility score to post some absurd advanced stat numbers in 2021. Last year he was 11th in yards per route run, fifth in yards after the catch per reception and seventh in slot yards per route run (per PFF). Amari Cooper is the only proven target on this depth chart who Njoku has to fight with for targets. In an offensive scheme that has seen the third and fourth highest target shares to the tight end position over the last two seasons and Austin Hooper gone, it’s Njoku’s time to shine.

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Derek Brown’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings