Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL season is approaching, which means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be “value” that presents itself through the draft, but sometimes there’s a reason a player is falling down draft boards. You need to know when to scoop up value and when to move on. Here are Derek Brown’s top players to avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts.

Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)

Even when I find myself waiting on quarterbacks, I’ll happily skip over Trevor Lawrence in drafts. Yes, the Urban Meyer experience was painful for everyone involved, including Lawrence, but it’s difficult to envision an upside scenario for him this season despite Meyer being jettisoned. Last year among quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks, he finished with the 11th-lowest big-time throw rate and the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate (per PFF). So even projecting a step forward only likely puts him in the middle of the road in those categories.

The return of Travis Etienne and the signing of Christian Kirk will help Lawrence, but these two players aren’t enough to raise him from the mid to low-end QB2 doldrums. In addition, the rest of the projected starters are frightening, with Zay Jones, Marvin Jones and Evan Engram expected to play meaningful snaps at Lawrence’s side.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB)

The departure of Davante Adams takes Aaron Rodgers out of the top 12 fantasy quarterback conversation. Over the last two seasons, Rodgers has finished as the QB8 and QB4 on the strength of the highest and the fifth-highest passing touchdown rates of his career. Those touchdown rates have not only been incredible by Rodgers’ standards but also in comparison to the rest of the NFL. He’s led the NFL in passing touchdown rate in back-to-back seasons (minimum 200 passing attempts).

These lofty numbers are difficult to repeat after losing arguably the best wide receiver in the league. In addition, Rodgers will have a tough time compensating with raw volume inside an offense that was last in the league in neutral script pace in 2021. While Rodgers can still be productive with the weapons around him, asking him to be anything more than a high-end QB2 at this point is probably too much.

Running backs

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

Antonio Gibson is on shaky ground with J.D. McKissic and Brian Robinson flanking him and threatening his workload. Gibson finished last season 15th in opportunity share, fourth in red-zone touches, and 27th in routes run. All of those categories could see a downtick in 2022 with McKissic impeding on his pass game usage and Robinson eating into the goal-line work. Gibson will still be drafted as a top 20 option in many formats. That’s absolutely too high considering the risk and capped upside surrounding Gibson. I’ll bypass him in drafts for wide receivers in the same range and take the ADP discount on later running backs who also find themselves in ambiguous backfields.

Josh Jacobs (RB – LVR)

Josh Jacobs is coming off a season where he gobbled up volume that powered him to an RB13 fantasy points per game finish. Unfortunately, Jacobs did very little with the touches he amassed last season. He was ninth in opportunity share and weighted opportunity while ranking 11th in carries and ninth in targets among running backs. In addition, Jacobs was wretchedly inefficient, ranking 40th in fantasy points per opportunity, 36th in breakaway run rate and 34th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF).

Jacobs could lose work on the ground to Kenyan Drake and Zamir White this season if he continues his three yards and cloud of dust ways. This pass game usage is assuredly going down with Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah on the roster. Last year Bolden ranked fourth in yards per route run, and Abdullah was 15th (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). Unless Jacobs falls past RB24 (he won’t), I’m avoiding him this year.

Damien Harris (RB – NE)

Damien Harris was a productive player last year as he was the latest Patriots’ running back to fall backward into a ridiculous touchdown-laden season. Last season, Harris soaked up the 12th-most red-zone touches, leading to 15 total touchdowns (fifth-most). Harris was an explosive rusher, ranking eighth in breakaway run rate and 16th in evaded tackles, but he wasn’t the only tackle breaker in the backfield.

Rhamondre Stevenson capped off an impressive rookie season ranking 12th in yards after contact per attempt and ninth in yards per route run (minimum 100 rushing attempts, 20 targets per PFF). Harris was 33rd in opportunity share and weighted opportunities last season. This season, Stevenson could make a more significant dent in those numbers while taking over the passing down role if James White cannot get on the field. Harris could repeat his goal-line vulture ways in 2022, but it’s priced into his ADP while the downside isn’t.

Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)

Elijah Mitchell gave us the feel-good story of 2021, but those warm fuzzy feelings could fade this year. Mitchell went from a sixth-round pick to the RB14 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a ton of volume in San Francisco. He was 13th in snap share, third in opportunity share, and toted the rock 207 times last year (13th-most). The problem is Mitchell didn’t maximize his touches and didn’t get the high-value work we seek in fantasy.

In 2021 he ranked outside the top 25 running backs in evaded tackles, breakaway run rate, juke rate and yards created per touch (per Playerprofiler.com). He was also 31st in weighted opportunities and 41st in red-zone touches, contributing to his six total touchdowns (27th). It doesn’t take a vivid imagination to dream up a scenario where Trey Lance vultures the goal line rushes, or another back takes over this season.

Wide receivers

Allen Robinson (WR – LAR)

While many will write off Allen Robinson’s abysmal 2021 season as “him giving up on the Bears” or “phoning it in,” it’s also possible that Robinson has seen his skill deteriorate. Last year was Robinson’s age 28 season, and we’ve seen the age cliff come for wide receivers in their later 20s, so we can’t rule it out. Last year Robinson ranked 79th (among 90 wide receivers with 50 or more targets) in yards per route run while also finishing 66th in PFF grades for wide receivers.

While Odell Beckham‘s bounceback was lauded with the Rams, the reality is he only drew an 18.7% target share and produced as the WR31 in fantasy points per game (among wideouts with at least three starts during his time as a starter for the Rams). Robinson will come off the board as a WR2 in many drafts, and at that cost, I’m out. He’s a mid to low-end WR3.

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)

Adam Thielen finally started to show his age last year. Thielen’s yards per route run fell to 1.63, which ranked 48th among qualifying wide receivers (50 or more targets, per PFF). The Vikings consolidated passing attack, and Thielen’s red zone role could help him retain value in fantasy football, but if father time is nipping at his heels, the ceiling is capped. Even if Thielen posts another productive WR3 type season in 2022, the chances of reaching his WR14 and WR11 levels of the two previous seasons are slim. Give me better upside propositions near his ADP in drafts.

DeAndre Hopkins  (WR – ARI)

DeAndre Hopkins’ six-game suspension and declining productivity make him an avoid in drafts. Hopkins is being selected as a top 40 wide receiver in various formats even though he is slated to miss a large chunk of the fantasy season. Hopkins saw his target share decline to 35th (20.6%) among wideouts last year as his target per snap rate also fell to 64th. He also finished with his lowest yards per route run mark (1.76) since 2016. At age 30, in combination with these other factors, I can’t press the draft button next to Hopkins in 2022.

Robert Woods (WR – TEN)

The prospects of Robert Woods bouncing back at age 30 post ACL were already dim, but landing with the Titans makes it even less likely. Before 2021 Woods was a player who looked to be on the back nine of his NFL career. His yards per route run had declined in each of the past four seasons. So his slight rebound in 2021 in this department is also fool’s gold. Woods did record a 1.74 yards per route run mark, but this was primarily inflated by his blowup game against the Seahawks, where he logged 4.17 yards per route run (per PFF).

He didn’t crest 1.5 yards per route run in five of his nine games played (per PFF). Now Woods finds himself on the wrong side of 30, recovering from a major injury, and on an offense that was 22nd in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate in 2021. None of this culminates in a recipe for success in 2022.

Tight ends

Dawson Knox (TE – BUF)

Last year, Dawson Knox’s finish as the TE9 in fantasy points per game was powered by his red-zone role. He’s likely to disappoint unless that red zone role is repeated with similar effectiveness this year. His other ancillary volume and efficiency numbers scream that regression is likely coming. Last season, Knox was fourth in red-zone targets, which helped him record the second-most total touchdowns (nine) among tight ends. However, he was 22nd in target share, 27th in targets per snap, and 35th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). These metrics point to Knox’s 2021 output being unsustainable this year. Add in Gabriel Davis taking a step forward and the additions of James Cook and Jamison Crowder, and Knox’s outlook becomes even grimmer.

Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)

Pat Freiermuth didn’t blow the doors off the fantasy hype wagon last year as the TE16 in fantasy points per game, but he’s currently coming off the board as a top 12 option. This draft position will be challenging to pay off even though fantasy managers aren’t breaking the bank to acquire his services. Freiermuth is similar to Dawson Knox. As both of their fantasy seasons last year were powered by touchdowns. Banking on the six-point dances to repeat is a slippery slope, especially when their periphery numbers pale in comparison.

Last year, Freiermuth led all tight ends in red-zone targets, which led to seven total touchdowns (sixth-highest). Unfortunately, the chances he can come close to repeating that type of red-zone volume is minuscule. His 12th-ranked target per snap rate offers some hope, but his 23rd ranked target share (13.0%) and 25th finish in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF) are heaping doses of cold water, effectively extinguishing the hope of fantasy flames in 2022.

Derek Brown’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings