We recently look at the impact contract status has on fantasy football performance. Focusing specifically on players entering the final year of their rookie contracts, Sam Ryner put together key takeaways and also players impacted entering the 2022 fantasy football season. Let’s take a deeper dive on one of those players, Daniel Jones.

QB contract-season fantasy performance data (2017-21; 4-point passing TD)

• 40% produced a PPG at least one point above their career average.
• 40% produced a PPG at least one point below their career average.
• 20% produced a PPG within one point of their career average.
• 40% had the best season-end rank of their rookie contract.
• 60% had the worst season-end rank of their rookie contract.

Fun fact: 80% of QBs who played into the final season of their rookie contract were backups in the following season.

What this means: The biggest takeaway for the QB position is that most fantasy-relevant QBs don’t play into their contract season because they have already signed an extension with their team. Only five fantasy-relevant QBs have played into the final season of their rookie contract since 2017, by far the lowest number for any position. As you can tell by looking at the list of QBs heading into contract seasons, these are players whose teams aren’t yet certain if they want to commit to them in the long term. The fantasy performance data for the QB position is a mixed bag. An equal number of QBs increased and decreased their PPG in the final season of their rookie contract when compared to their career average. However, the data does indicate that any QB heading into the final year of their rookie contract isn’t likely to be a wise investment in dynasty leagues, as the majority of these players don’t retain their status as starting QBs. In terms of redraft leagues, Daniel Jones is the best bet to see a bump in fantasy production with him having a new head coach with a track record of developing QBs, an improved offensive line, and a presumably healthy group of skill-position players.

Daniel Jones 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

Per the Athletic’s Dan Duggan, the Giants want to unleash quarterback Daniel Jones. It’s music to the ears of fantasy drafters looking for a late-round quarterback with upside, because Jones has the skill set to be that player in a better offensive environment.
Before a Week 5 concussion, Jones was the QB8 overall and in points per game (23.3). The Giants quarterback ranked third in rushing yards per game (47/game) and second in PFF passing grade.

This offseason, New York drafted the best offensive tackle in the draft with the selection of Evan Neal at No. 7 overall. It provides Jones the protection he desperately needs as he looks to prove to the New York organization that he is worthy of being the long-term answer at quarterback.

With the Giants upgrading their entire offensive line through free agency and the draft, Jones is back on the fantasy QB2 radar in Superflex formats. Recall that last season he was playing behind PFF’s third-worst graded offensive line.

He will also benefit greatly from the No.1-easiest strength of schedule for QBs.
– Andrew Erickson

2022 Fantasy Football Staff Consensus Rankings

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