By The Numbers: J.D. Martinez, Cesar Hernandez, Corey Seager (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Last week, this column reviewed how BABIP could be used to project future performance for pitchers. Today’s column will focus on batting BABIP. However, evaluating BABIP for batters is more nuanced than it is for pitchers, especially this season.

BABIP measures the result of balls put into play, not counting home runs. Typically, if a batter has a higher-than-usual BABIP, they are deemed “lucky.” A batter with a lower-than-usual BABIP is considered “unlucky.” This simple view has been enough for fantasy managers to project future performance for years. This season, fantasy managers will need to consider digging deeper.

Various factors can influence a batter’s BABIP, particularly line drives. BABIP rewards players that hit line drives, something that certain players have discovered this year with changes to the ball and the addition of stadium humidors. By the end of May 2021, batters hit 1811 home runs, as opposed to 1478 home runs hit through May this year.

The issue this season is that the new ball and the addition of humidors where the balls are kept have forced hitters to change their approaches at the plate because home runs are more difficult to hit. This season, batters who hit more line drives tend to have high BABIPs and batting averages, perhaps higher than usual and possibly actually sustainable. Batters who have noticed this and have changed their approach to hitting more line drives are seeing improvements to their BABIPs and averages, while others have yet to catch on to the trend and may be suffering.

Certain players who have BABIPs that may seem unsustainably high could be maintaining them because of an increase in line drive rates, while others with high BABIPs may truly be getting lucky if their line-drive rates are low. This added layer to BABIP can help fantasy managers determine which players are getting lucky or unlucky, which players should be sold or bought, and which players should improve or regress.

Below is a look at some interesting BABIP numbers, including players with high BABIPs that are somewhat sustainable because of high line drive rates, players who have changed their approach from last year to hit more line drives, and players who have low BABIPs that should improve based on line drive trends.

J.D. Martinez (DH – BOS) .469 BABIP

Martinez leads baseball with an astronomical .469 BABIP but backs up his high BABIP with a league-leading 31.4% line drive rate and an almost equal distribution of hits to all fields.

The veteran slugger has a top-15 barrel rate and a hard-hit rate in the top third of qualified hitters.

While a .469 BABIP is likely unsustainable, it is not out of the question to think he can maintain a high BABIP and, therefore, a high average because of the things he is doing in terms of his approach at the plate.

While some may see his high BABIP as luck, others will see that his background metrics suggest he has adjusted to the new ball, realized that it is more difficult to hit home runs, and discovered that driving the ball is more productive than hitting a fly ball. Other batters have figured this out as well and have maintained a high LD% from last year, resulting in a sustainably high BABIP and batting average.

While these are not the only players who fit the mold of maintaining or increasing their high line drive rate from last year, they show how players are adjusting to the ball and offer a case study on how high BABIPs can be sustainable and result in high batting averages.

Cesar Hernandez (2B – WAS) .361 BABIP

Hernandez increased his BABIP by over 100 points from last season, primarily due to a 10% increase in line drive rate, from 18.1% in 2021 to 28.2% in 2022.

Part of the reason he has yet to hit a home run is that he decreased his flyball rate by about 9% (his 0% HR/FB rate also suggests some misfortune in terms of how many of his flyballs turn into home runs).

Because of a dramatic increase in line drive rate, his BABIP and batting average could each be sustainable. In 2013, 2016, and 2020, Hernandez had similar BABIP numbers while also driving the ball more than in other seasons, resulting in batting averages between .280-.290.

When evaluating players based on BABIP this season, fantasy managers should consider whether a certain player has increased their line drive rate from last season. While it may look like an unsustainable BABIP for that player on the surface, their line drive rate could reveal a hitter who has adapted their approach to the ball this season.

Along with Hernandez, here are a few other hitters whose higher-than-usual BABIPs and averages could stick because of their adjustments to their line drive rates from last season.

Corey Seager (SS – TEX) .230 BABIP

Several players have been exceedingly unlucky this year, and Corey Seager is one of them.

Despite increasing his line drive rate by 4% from last year, Seager’s BABIP is suffering. He is truly getting unlucky, and his line drive rate helps prove it.

Several other players are in a position similar to Seager, where they have improved or maintained their line drive rate from last year, but it does not reflect in their 2022 BABIP or batting average. These players and others like them are due for positive regression to their BABIP and AVG.

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