Last week, this column focused on the batting statistic BABIP with a particular focus on the effect of line-drive rate on it.
Because Major League Baseball has introduced a new ball this season, and since teams have adopted the use of humidors to store baseballs, the flight path of the balls has changed and limited the number of home runs.
These changes have affected players’ approaches at the plate, rewarding players who drive the ball more and negatively affecting players who hit fly balls.
Several players have made the change to hit more line drives, and as such, have raised their BABIPs and their batting averages. However, some players have not adjusted and are still suffering from low BABIPs and batting averages.
Typically, when a player has a low BABIP and a low batting average, people consider that player unlucky. With the connection between LD% and BABIP being more important than ever, though, fantasy managers can see which players are truly unlucky and which players are not performing well because of their approach.
Below is a list of players who are either truly unlucky or not performing well, as well as a method for fantasy managers to understand and identify the difference.
Bryce Harper (PHI – OF) .331 BABIP
Yes, Bryce Harper is doing very well, batting .309 with a .331 BABIP. On the surface, it looks like a high, perhaps unsustainable BABIP, but digging deeper reveals that not only should his BABIP be higher, but his batting average as well.
The main reason for this is that Harper increased his line-drive rate from 21.9% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022, yet he has a lower BABIP and the same batting average he had by the end of last season.
| Player | ’21 LD% | ’21 BABIP | ’21 AVG | ’22 LD% | ’22 BABIP | ’22 AVG |
| Bryce Harper | 21.9% | .359 | .309 | 28.5% | .331 | .309 |
Harper is one of many players who are truly unlucky because they have made adjustments at the plate that do not reflect in their production yet.
Some players like Matt Olson, Eduardo Escobar and Jesus Aguilar have adjusted their LD%, and their batting average and BABIP do not reflect those adjustments, but those players also have worsened their strikeout and walk rates. Plate discipline has a major effect on batting average, so fantasy managers must consider a player’s plate discipline when analyzing BABIP and batting average.
Others in the same boat as Harper who appear truly unlucky include Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Bo Bichette, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and more.
Juan Soto (WAS – OF) .222 BABIP
One player fantasy managers should be concerned about is Juan Soto. Many would consider a .222 BABIP to be extremely low and a sign that his bad luck may turn around, but because he is not driving the ball well, his BABIP and batting average are suffering.
| Player | ’21 LD% | ’21 BABIP | ’21 AVG | ’22 LD% | ’22 BABIP | ’22 AVG |
| Juan Soto | 18.6% | .332 | .313 | 11.8% | .222 | .225 |
Soto’s line-drive rate dropped by 6.8% from last season, which is significantly negatively affecting his 2022 BABIP and batting average. It is the third lowest line-drive rate among qualified hitters this season.
Yes, his average and BABIP should see some positive regression, but the lack of line drives is concerning and will limit his success.
Anthony Rizzo (NYY – 1B) .192 BABIP
Anthony Rizzo is another player who may seem to be suffering from bad luck but is suffering from a lack of line drives.
| Player | ’21 LD% | ’21 BABIP | ’21 AVG | ’22 LD% | ’22 BABIP | ’22 AVG |
| Anthony Rizzo | 19.4% | .258 | .248 | 15.1% | .192 | .213 |
His line-drive rate dropped over 4% from last season, and because line drives are so connected to BABIP this season, his BABIP and batting average are suffering tremendously.
Playing in Yankee Stadium, the lefty first baseman should be succeeding, especially since he pulls the ball over 50% of the time. His problem is that fly balls are not leaving the park as much as in years past and that he likely is grounding out into a shift against him.
Line drives turn into hits more often than ground balls and fly balls, so if he drove the ball more, especially this season, he would have more success. Alas, his low BABIP and low average are largely his own doing.
Other players like Rizzo and Soto whom fantasy managers should be concerned about include Cedric Mullins, J.T. Realmuto, Marcus Semien, Bryan Reynolds and Nick Castellanos.
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