Few micro-strategies are as divisive as Zero RB, and, arguably, it’s the most misunderstood of the common draft strategies. If you haven’t already, I recommend reading my article on the strategy, which goes into plenty of depth on its viability and nuances.
At this stage in the offseason, depth charts are relatively static. Without an injury in OTAs, we have a reasonably clear idea of which running backs are workhorses and which are facing committees. Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Jerick McKinnon, and Justin Jackson are the top available unsigned running backs. While most of those players could still play a role, it’s unlikely they’re threatening too many already-signed players unless a team’s particular management doesn’t believe in them. For the most part, we’re set with information until training camp.
With best ball becoming more popular and the final rounds growing ever larger, it’s important to consider strategies that the field is under-utilizing. According to Rotoviz’s Underdog Roster Construction Tool, only 4.3% of Underdog Best Ball Mania II drafters took their first running back in round five or later. If you plan on entering a large number of entries to a contest like this being different can help you to find an edge.
The key to any good Zero RB roster is the right mix of running backs selected. Typically we want to roster players who have standalone value, handcuffs and rookies who may grow into a prominent role as the season goes on. The following players are names I find myself drawn to in drafts when I’m in a Zero RB or even a Hero RB build.
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN) – ADP 121.0
Mattison is perhaps my favorite Zero RB target for 2022. The clear backup behind Dalvin Cook Mattison only faces competition from Kene Nwangwu, who is more of a special teams player than a real threat for touches, seeing only 17 touches in total last year. Ahead of Mattison, Cook is by no means a lousy prospect for 2022, but he has failed to play more than 14 games in a season, and if he were to get injured, then Mattison would become a top fifteen running back overnight. In 2021 Mattison played more than 50% of snaps on four occasions and finished as the RB 8.5 on average those weeks. The Vikings make zero adjustments when Mattison is replacing Cook, and there aren’t many back-ups running backs in the league who can be relied on so heavily. Mattison is also a player that may draw trade interest for any team hit by injuries. With his contract expiring at the end of this coming season, the Vikings could be tempted to move him if picks were on the table. We all saw how new GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah liked picks in the recent draft.
RB: ALEXANDER MATTISON
Face Value: RB39 (125.9 pts)
Deep Dive:
✅In 4 games as starter:
Avg:
Rush: 22/89/0.5
Rec: 5/41/0.25
Pts: 21.7 FPPGContext: RB1 JT = 22 FPPG
✅High-End handcuff & Dalvin Cook has missed 31% of possible games in 5 years
ADP
Dynasty: RB39
Redraft: RB40 pic.twitter.com/dWJNMFNXHi— Matt FF Dynasty ? (@MattFFDynasty) May 26, 2022
Ronald Jones II (RB – KC) – ADP 120.0
I know what you’re thinking, you’ve been hurt by Ronald Jones before, and you’re not ready to go back to the well, but stick with me, please. Jones finds himself in a clear one-two punch committee with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who enters his third season in the NFL and has done little to repay that high draft capital the Chiefs paid for him when they selected him with the final pick of the 2020 first round. While Edwards-Helaire came out of college with 55 receptions in his last year, he’s only equaled that amount in two years in the NFL. Meanwhile, Jones has averaged 19 receptions per year. With Darrel Williams departing for Arizona, it feels more likely that Edwards-Helaire finally steps into the pass-catching role. While Jones is by no means a perfect running back, he has enjoyed spells as an excellent between-the-tackles runner. The Chiefs have made a significant effort to improve their offensive line since the 2020 Super Bowl when Patrick Mahomes ran for his life from the Tampa Bay pass rushers. In 2021 the Chiefs’ offensive line ranked third in Run Block Rate according to ESPN with 74%. With Jones currently available in the 10th round of drafts, he presents an ideal Zero RB candidate. Any piece of an offense as explosive as the Chiefs is one we should look to take chances on.
Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) – ADP 147.0
Hines started 2021 seeing decent usage, playing on 37.2% of snaps with an opportunity share of 27.0% over the first nine weeks. As Jonathan Taylor went from strength to strength and Carson Wentz‘s play deteriorated, Hines saw his snap share dip to 25% over the final eight games, and his opportunity share dropped to a disappointing 13.6%. The Colts had little choice but to lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor as Wentz averaged 4.6 fewer completed passes per game. With Matt Ryan taking over under center, the Colts’ offense should be able to operate much closer to how Frank Reich would like to. In 2020 Hines was the RB29 in PPR points per game, averaging 4.75 targets per game. Matt Ryan has frequently supported pass-catching backs in his career, and with Reich mentioning the possibility of playing Hines in the slot at times this season, Hines looks like a player who can outplay his ADP. We’re not always looking for a player like Alexander Mattison. Sometimes it’s just about players who can provide usable weeks while your stud wide receivers dominate.
Nyheim Hines on what he thinks about when he hears the Colts talking about getting him in the slot more:
“Opportunity.”
— Joel A. Erickson (@JoelAErickson) May 4, 2022
Zamir White (RB – LV) – ADP 207.0
Zero RB builds often rely on surviving the early parts of the season as your wide receivers dominate scoring and keep your rosters in contention. Then, later on in the season, your teams can dominate when players step into more prominent roles. Rookies are a big piece of this and each year, identifying the rookies who can lead their backfields is a big part of the puzzle. Josh Jacobs has never played an entire season in the NFL without missing games and frequently picks up niggling injuries. With the team under a new GM and head coach who declined to pick up Jacobs’s fifth-year option, it stands to reason they will be interested in seeing what they have in fourth-round pick Zamir White. As Andrew Erickson wrote on White’s rookie profile, “The Georgia Bulldog is built like a three-down back at 6-feet and 214 pounds. Great testing measurables from the NFL Combine: 4.40 40-yard dash (93rd percentile) and 128″ in the broad jump (94th percentile).” With Jacobs and Kenyan Drake out of contract at the end of this season, it’s easy to write a narrative where we see more of White down the stretch, and at his current ADP, we can afford to wait.
Other Zero RB suggestions
Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB – LAR) – ADP 139.0
If Cam Akers feels any lasting effects of his Achilles injury, we’ve already seen that Henderson can carry the workload for periods.
Darrel Williams (RB – ARI) – ADP 224.3
James Conner has averaged 11 games per year throughout his career, and Darrell Williams has shown to be a solid backup option who can play on every down. If Conner was to miss serious time, Williams represents a significant potential winner.
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) – ADP 165.3
With David Montgomery, a free agent in 2023, Herbert could find his way to more opportunities in a Bears team depleted of good players.
Rachaad White (RB- TB) – ADP 136.7
With Ronald Jones out of town, White profiles as the more likely workhorse in Tampa should anything happen to Fournette.
Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) – ADP 164.0
The gap between Edwards and J.K Dobbins is too large at present. Edwards will see snaps regularly and has worked well at the goal line. While his ceiling is somewhat capped, Edwards can help fill in weeks to prevent you from taking zeroes.
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