The 2022 NFL season is approaching, and that means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.
One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but sometimes there’s a reason a player is ‘falling’ down draft boards. You need to know when to scoop up value and when to move on. Here are Andrew Erickson’s top players to avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Andrew Erickson’s Players to Avoid
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes II (QB – KC) ADP: 34 OVR, QB2
Best real-life quarterback? Of course. The clear-cut No. 2 option in fantasy? Not worth the price of admission.
Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes in 2021. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2). And that was with Tyreek Hill in the fold.
My findings from the QB boom-or-bust report was also glaring.
– Mahomes posted the highest bust rate among QBs inside the top 3 ADP (25%).
– The Chiefs QB’s average fantasy finish in 7 games that Hill busted in 2021: QB11. One top-five finish.
– The Chiefs QB’s average fantasy finish in games that Hill finished top-20 or better in 2021: QB7. Five top-five finishes.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018 season. There’s genuine concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill that is not being factored into his top-3 ADP and ECR ranking.
Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16). He’s being overvalued as the QB2 in early drafts on name recognition alone.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) ADP: 94 OVR, QB12
Placing Aaron Rodgers in the “players to avoid” category feels like grabbing at low-hanging fruit, but it’s just so obvious his fantasy ceiling is going to be hindered this year without his No. 1 wide receiver, Davante Adams.
The one game the Packers’ signal-caller played without his No. 1 receiver in 2021 was his third-worst fantasy finish of the season. And Rodgers’ only healthy season-long fantasy finish outside the top eight came in a season where Adams missed four games (2019).
Rodgers finished as a top-6 QB at a 25% rate that year – a mark that would have ranked 10th in 2021.
The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent than in or near the red zone, with Rodgers and Adams combining for 64 touchdowns — double digits on average — since 2016, 23 more than the next-closest duo (Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill). 33% of Rodgers’ touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.
Green Bay has bolstered their wide receiver room through free agency and the draft, but it’s still improbable that they can make up for Adams’ production — especially in the red zone. Without Adams, it’s hard to buy Rodgers as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 2022.
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) ADP: 73 OVR, QB8
With their backs up against the salary cap, the Dallas Cowboys didn’t have an offseason to remember for Dak Prescott’s 2022 fantasy prospects. They gave up Amari Cooper and lost two key starting offensive pieces on the offensive line in La’el Collins and Connor Williams for little return.
They did re-sign Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, but reports on Gallup indicate he won’t be ready for Week 1 coming off the torn ACL. Dallas’ biggest move in free agency and the NFL Draft to combat their losses was signing former Steelers wide receiver James Washington (already hurt), drafting Jalen Tolbert in Round 3, and selecting an offensive tackle project, Tyler Smith, in Round 1.
With many other quarterbacks benefiting from better team offseasons, Prescott has fallen in my rankings well past his QB8 ADP, making it less likely I draft him. He finished as the QB9 last year in points per game.
He will be slightly overrated in redraft after leaving a lot on the table with a 33% bust rate in 2021 — the highest among the top-14 QBs based on ADP. I can’t say that his current offensive situation – albeit his rushing could mitigate these factors – is better than last season. Therefore he will likely be pretty volatile.
Obviously if he falls into the late-round QB territory with guys like Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson or Derek Carr, I’d be more open to take a shot on Dak, because the high pace of play — first in the offensive pace of play last season — in Big D lends itself to fantasy goodness.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) ADP: 122 OVR, QB16
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings/draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach, Mike McDaniel.
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes.
Case in point, over the last three seasons, only the Titans have been more run-heavy under neutral game script conditions than the 49ers.
49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa’s aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021.
Jimmy G’s most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game — good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season.
So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won’t be pulling the trigger on him in 1-QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In Tua’s four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18, and QB16.
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) ADP: 144 OVR, QB21
Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy success as a Titan was driven behind A.J. Brown‘s absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee. Even with first-round pick Treylon Burks in the fold, it’s hard to get overly excited about the Tennessee QB in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses devoid of any elite, proven pass catchers.
He got exposed without offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and weapons last season, finishing the season with his lowest passer rating to date as a Titan (88.1, 23rd). Tannehill’s passer rating off play-action throws also fell off (96.1 versus 109.5).
2022 is going to be a rude awakening for Tannehill, who has the largest cap hit in the NFL this year ($38.6M).
Fantasy gamers are praying that Tannehill’s cashes on positive touchdown regression. No quarterback threw fewer TDs under expectation (9.8) than Tannehill did in 2021. If the weapons were there for him, I’d be more bullish on him recapturing his fantasy QB1 status from 2019-2020.
RUNNING BACKS
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) ADP: 29 OVR, RB15
Ezekiel Elliott’s main fantasy appeal is the touchdown opportunity he will see in a high-powered offense, coming off another season with poor rushing efficiency marks. The Dallas Cowboys running back finished fifth-worst in PFF’s elusive rating (25.0) and averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (14.6 versus 15.4) in a better offensive situation. There is a caveat with Zeke’s inefficient rushing: He reportedly played with a torn PCL last season.
However, history doesn’t necessarily indicate that Elliott is in for a significant comeback in 2022 based on running backs that have had similar careers.
Steven Jackson, Walter Payton and Clinton Portis profile closest to Elliott based on their workloads and age, per Stathead.com. Each running back totaled over 1,800 touches before their age-27 season.
But the feedback was negative, with each running back seeing a dip in average PPR points per game (1.34) and total fantasy points (-18). And that came with each of them still seeing 370-plus touches on the season.
Elliott hit a career-low in total touches (284) and touches per game last season (16.7) — nearly three fewer than in 2020.
Dallas has every right to feed Zeke to their heart’s desire with an out in his contract at the end of the season. But they are also in the business of winning games and understand that Elliott breaking down at the end of last season did not help the offense.
Meanwhile, backup running back Tony Pollard quietly averaged 11.3 touches — three more than the year prior — and flashed elite rushing ability as PFF’s second-highest-graded rusher.
Elliott barely out-scored Pollard during the second half of the season (10.5 versus 11.5) despite scoring 6 TDs versus Pollard’s one.
Pollard was also dynamite as a receiver, ranking third in yards per route run (2.03) on the 10th-most targets. Zeke finished 6th in targets… but 57th in yards per route run.
I hate to be the one to bury an older running back as washed, as that burned me last season somewhat with the likes of James Conner and Leonard Fournette. However, I am not overly convinced that Elliott will be a volume monster in 2022 after the team dialed back his usage while Pollard continued to impress at every opportunity he received.
And even if Elliott’s efficiency increases slightly after a lackluster season, the Cowboys’ offensive line might mitigate any of those benefits if they take a step back with a plethora of moving pieces.
If Zeke follows in the same path as the previous backs I’ve mentioned, he’s looking at 235 fantasy points (low-end RB1 last season) if he plays a full slate of games. But his points per game fall in the back-end RB2 range at RB22, averaging 13.5 points per game.
Chances are that Elliott will probably beat his ADP because he is an iron man and doesn’t miss games. He’s missed just one game due to injury over his NFL career.
But even the greatest Zeke fans will admit the ride for him to finish as RB10-12 hardly will feel smooth when he’s hanging middling RB2 production most weeks. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy RB1 in just 35% of his games the past two seasons. Elliott won’t end up being a true difference-maker at this stage in his career, and the cost of drafting him over league-winning WRs in the middle rounds is something I can’t justify.
Keep in mind that 13.5 PPR points per game equated to the WR29 last season. And that point projection is nearly identical to his 2022 projection.
And if the sole argument for drafting Zeke is touchdowns (valid argument), why not just draft Josh Jacobs instead at a discount? Or cheaper guys like Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, Damien Harris and David Montgomery, who all finished as RB1s at a similar percentage (greater than 32%) in 2021?
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) ADP: 20 OVR, RB11
Running back Melvin Gordon signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos this offseason, ultimately halting the Javonte Williams 2022 breakout season. The idea of Williams playing a three-down role was salivating, but Gordon’s return should not be overlooked after a seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
The 29-year-old running back was efficient across the board, ranking eighth in both PFF rushing grade (83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) while compiling 231 touches (16th).
MG3’s return definitely hurts Williams’ top-tier fantasy ceiling. He’s going to split work with another capable back in Gordon, which is precisely what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires and spoke on at the NFL owners’ meeting in March. The team has no plans to abandon its two-back rotation even after changing coaches. Williams said that the way they operated last season — an essential 50/50 split — would be the plan of attack in 2022.
The reports out of training camp have been all over the place about the Broncos’ RB usage ranging from an absurd 80-20 in favor of Williams, to it being a full-blown 50/50 committee. Safe to say there’s a lot of ways these could play out, but Gordon seems slated for some role most likely in a 60/40 kind of split with Javonte as the 1A.
I think that’s the best way to conservatively view the situation when both guys are healthy. Williams gets more work as a second-year player, but Gordon stays involved — likely to the chagrin of many fantasy managers. Especially with Gordon getting buzz as a receiver over Williams.
Plugged-in Broncos reporter Cecil Lammey spoke upon Gordon getting plenty of reps in padded practices, while also calling out fantasy football GMs for drafting Williams too high at his ADP.
And Broncos OC Justin Outten recently spoke on the RBs being on a pitch count throughout the season. Most likely an approach to keep both RBs upright for the 18-game season. Great for Williams’ availability season-long, but not his weekly ceiling which will likely stay in the RB2 range unless he earns the lion’s share of high-value touches.
Therefore… Juggernaut Javonte falls just outside of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft because it’s hard to envision him significantly surpassing his RB17 finish in half-point scoring from a season ago with a similar split workload expected. His current ADP at RB10 is expensive.
Let’s not forget that Gordon finished ahead of Williams as RB16 and played one fewer game through 18 weeks. In Gordon’s missed game, Williams finished as the highest-scoring running back of the week.
Many Javonte fans will harp on the touchdown upside of Williams playing in a better situation than last season, but the red zone role between the two backs was nearly split in 2021 with a slight lean towards the veteran.
| Name |
GP |
TOT RZ TD |
TOT RZ TOUCHES |
TOT RZ TD |
ATT Inside 20 |
ATT Inside 10 |
ATT Inside 5 |
| Melvin Gordon III |
16 |
10 |
46 |
6 |
40 |
20 |
11 |
| Javonte Williams |
17 |
7 |
37 |
4 |
31 |
21 |
10 |
Even if the Broncos’ offense presents more scoring opportunities, it doesn’t necessarily greenlight all those high-value touches for Williams.
Simply put: The wide margin in ADP between Williams and Gordon (RB36) needs to be much closer. All things considered, I’d just wait to draft Gordon several rounds after Williams to get a cheap piece of the Broncos’ backfield.
That being said — Williams is no longer a “bust” player for me. But rather somebody I’d try to avoid at ADP or hope that he slips. He’s no longer featured in my 2022 busts article, because the worst case scenario seems like he finishes in the mid-range RB2, which doesn’t necessarily tank your team.
Because the best-case scenario — RB1 overall upside — is still in Williams’ range of outcomes should the Broncos make him their featured back. It’s a situation where drafters are willing to take a slight loss — Williams failing to be a backend RB1 — for the massive gain they get him becoming a top-5/top-3 running back.
But at the same time…there’s case to be made for other RBs with “RB1 potential” that you can get for a fraction of the cost.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI) ADP: 33 OVR, RB16
Just don’t draft David Montgomery and thank me later. Projected volume is the sole reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently.
In my heart of hearts, I think Khalil Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Herbert might be a better fit for the zone-running scheme that new OC Luke Getsy will be bringing in. PFF graded Herbert in the 96th percentile on zone rushes. Montgomery ranked in the 43rd percentile.
Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season (46%) despite being an entrenched workhorse with a top-10 opportunity share. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs.
No thanks.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) ADP: 52 OVR, RB24
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him… J.D. McKissic. That’s because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins’ three.
Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that’s not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore, with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020.
It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will completely take over the backfield in 2022 coming off an injury, considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received.
Although worth noting that Dobbins will have the upper hand to start the year with him on the trajectory to suit up in Week 1, while Edwards remains doubtful.
Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on back in 2020. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) — the sixth-highest difference at the position.
Drafters must understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late fourth-rounder or fifth-rounder (this price will likely increase), he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson’s tendency to not check down, along with the additions of two receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie.
Even as the “healthier” of the two Ravens top RBs, his activation off the PUP also doesn’t mean he is 100% healthy. Nor does it mean he will be as effective as a rusher like he was when he last played averaging 6.0 yards per carry — an extremely high standard.
It’s just hard to maintain that pristine level of efficiency year over year, let alone do it after suffering a multi-ligament knee injury.
Best temper expectations on Dobbins out the gates — even with Edwards also sidelined.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) ADP: 69 OVR, RB28
Miles Sanders reclaimed “bell-cow” status after coming back from injury in his final five games in the regular season averaging 16 touches per contest. However, he averaged just two targets and two red-zone touches per game.
It’s great that he projects to be the lead runner behind a great offensive line, but his lack of high-value opportunities in the backfield seriously caps Sanders’ ceiling amid a massive running back rotation.
It’s really hard to buy into Sanders’s fantasy football appeal when second-year back Kenneth Gainwell is reportedly getting more looks in high-leverage situations ie. third down, passing situations and at the goal-line.
Jalen Hurts — among other Eagles RBs — present a real hurdle for Sanders to dramatically improve upon his zero scores from last season. Will he score more? Most likely. But not enough to necessarily move the needle.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA) ADP: 90 OVR, RB35
With an ADP in the top 90, it’s just too steep a price to pay for Ken Walker as the No. 2 RB behind Rashaad Penny (RB32, 81st overall).
Walker will be used heavily on early downs in an offense that easily projects to be bottom five in the NFL led by the unsurprising duo of Drew Lock/Geno Smith at quarterback.
Even if Walker can carve out a first-year workload similar to that of Chris Carson circa 2020 — 16.4 touches per game, 56% snap share when healthy — it’s still going to be a massive uphill battle for him to be a fantasy producer in Year 1.
Pete Carroll has a stable of backs including Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer, and DeeJay Dallas who all figure to work in at some point despite Walker’s Round 2 draft capital. Penny was the fantasy RB1 over the final five weeks of the season. By all training camp accounts, Penny is viewed as the starter — health withstanding.
Again, even when Carson was the clear-cut RB1 of the offense, he was splitting snaps.
Penny was brought back on a one-year deal for $5 million (12th-highest cap hit) and Homer/Dallas have routinely worked as pass catchers out of the backfield.
Seattle also finished dead last in targets to the RB position last season, creating serious doubt that Walker will be used in that fashion in any capacity as a rookie. Part of that is on Russell Wilson‘s lack of juice in the screen game, but the offense itself doesn’t predicate much RB pass-game usage. Geno Smith posted a meager 12% RB target rate (three per game) in his three starts last season. Drew Lock was at 17%.
The Seahawks have the chance to be a running back by committee backfield and dumpster fire on offense this season for all the reasons I’ve laid out, which is why I am adamantly against paying the premium for Walker. If this team falls behind in games, there’s no telling which RB will even be on the field.
A friendly reminder: Nobody is making you draft a Seattle Seahawks running back.
Penny is my preferred target if you are waiting long in the draft for your 2nd running back, as you can squeeze some decent RB2 production out of him to start the year at the price of an RB3. He’s not going to be there for the long haul, but can be useful to start the year.
Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) ADP: 46 OVR, RB21
The 49ers added a physical running back in Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft, creating some doubt about how the backfield will be deployed come September. It doesn’t help Elijah Mitchell’s case either that he struggled with durability during his rookie season.
Undersized backs in the 49ers’ offense constantly get banged up. 80% of Mitchell’s rushing yards came after contact in 2021, so it was not surprising to see him miss six games with the impact his body took. Adding Davis-Price as a bulldozer back figures to lighten Mitchell’s workload, which could hurt his fantasy numbers in the long run.
There’s also the curious case of Kyle Shanahan’s rotating running back room that fantasy drafters can never seem to crack. Since the 2018 season, the first 49ers running back drafted in fantasy football based on ADP has never been the one you wanted to draft first by season’s end.
Case in point, Raheem Mostert was the first guy drafted these past two seasons, when Mitchell/Wilson were better fantasy assets. The same story played out the two years prior with Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon. Mostert and Matt Breida were the SF RBs to own based on how the season played out.
- 2021: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Elijah Mitchell RB1.
- 2020: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Jeff Wilson Jr. RB1.
- 2019: Tevin Coleman drafted RB1, Matt Breida drafted RB2. Raheem Mostert RB1.
- 2018: Jerick McKinnon drafted RB1, Alfred Morris drafted RB2. Matt Breida RB1.
- 2017: Carlos Hyde drafted RB1. Hyde RB1.
Accompanied by a so-so role as a receiver that likely won’t improve with a mobile quarterback under center, there are much better bets at wide receiver in the same draft range that Mitchell is being taken.
As a sixth-round pick in 2021, the 49ers have no obligation to feature Mitchell despite his tremendous production in Year 1. It’s not fair, but that’s life in the NFL.
However, if he falls enough in drafts (Round 6-plus), I don’t mind him as an RB2 that can emerge as a fantasy force from the RB Dead Zone. If he stays healthy, he likely will produce in the 49ers offense to start the year.
Mitchell finished as an RB1 in 36% of his game (14th) and an RB2 in 64% of his games (12th) last season. Same at the exact same percentages as Leonard Fournette and Damien Harris.
I definitely prefer the 49ers RB over several other backs going in the “Dead-Zone” just because I feel more confident that he is the clear-cut RB1 when healthy.
In his last eight starts, he saw carry totals of 27, 21, 21, 22, 27, 27, 17 and 11 averaging 83 rushing yards per game. Overall, Mitchell ranked third in opportunity share, fourth in total carries (including the postseason and finished as just one of eights backs to hit 1K rushing.
He was the first 49ers back to rush at least 200 times for 900-plus yards since Hyde.
But I still don’t find myself being overly aggressive on Mitchell because if he were to go down, and another back in the backfield flourished in relief — especially one with higher draft capital — there’s no telling who Shanahan will turn to.
This backfield as stumped fantasy gamers every year, and it feels like a sucker move to be overly bullish on Mitchell.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) ADP: 19 OVR, WR7
There’s no reason to believe that Deebo Samuel will be able to sustain that same elite production from last season. Natural regression is firmly in play considering that no WR earned more fantasy points above expectation than Samuel did in 2021. And that number doesn’t come as a surprise considering that nearly 30% of Samuel’s fantasy points came from rushing alone — 365 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns — and that Samuel scored three touchdowns of 75-plus yards.
Samuel’s usage in the San Francisco offense seems destined to change with him voicing displeasure over his RB/WR hybrid deployment. That’s also not factoring in the rushing attempts and short-to-intermediate targets that Samuel could lose with mobile second-year QB Trey Lance becoming the starter, or increased target competition from a fully healthy George Kittle and out-of-the-doghouse Brandon Aiyuk.
It’s forgotten that Samuel’s fantasy numbers and target share would have dipped during the second half of the season had it not been for the rushing, with Aiyuk and Kittle both fully installed in the offense.
There’s no guarantee that the planets align for Samuel — in fact, it’s very unlikely — that made him a fantasy revelation in 2021. His long injury track record dating back to college should also not be overlooked, nor should the overall run-heavy nature of the 49ers’ offense that can make targets scarce.
He’s just too expensive as the WR6, which assumes everything he did last season will happen again.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) ADP: 21 OVR, WR8
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. Nevertheless, the ‘Cheetah’ wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).
It’s worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill’s average depth of target (aDOT) also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest since his rookie season.
Hill was then traded to the Miami Dolphins this offseason, but it’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-10 season with a lesser passer. His current ADP and ECR ranking is WR8.
Especially with Tagovailoa’s lack of a confident deep ball — 34th in aDOT last season — a prominent running game, and second-year wide receiver Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan.
Waddle posted nine top-24 PPR finishes in 2021 – eighth-best at the position and more than Hill did in KC with Patrick Mahomes. And through the second half of the season, their cumulative numbers were nearly identical across the board. Except for efficiency marks and fantasy points per game – where Waddle was superior, averaging 14.8 half-points per game versus Hill (12.7).
Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.
Case in point, quick-hitters, and yards after the catch (YAC) will be the focal point of the Dolphins’ offense in 2021 as new head coach Mike McDaniel stems from the 49ers’ YAC-heavy passing offense. Hill finished seventh in yards after the catch last season, so he’s a candidate to take full advantage of Tagovailoa’s “YAC attack.”
49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior.
With Hill’s efficiency marks trending in the wrong direction amid a massive quarterback downgrade, he remains a player you need to be extremely price-sensitive about drafting.
Full disclosure, I’m not particularly high on the Dolphins’ passing offense heading into the 2022 season, which is why I think exposing the obvious value in their backfield is the best approach. After all, Mike McDaniel found his success in the 49ers system as a run game coordinator.
Case in point, over the last three seasons, only the Titans have been more run-heavy under neutral game script conditions than the 49ers.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) ADP: 34 OVR, QB2
Diontae Johnson’s expert consensus rating (ECR) of WR15 is super aggressive. It’s vastly higher than my rank (WR23). And it’s a pretty price to pay up even for a target hog like Johnson when he will almost surely see inefficient targets.
Too often last season, I was drafting WRs in the third and fourth round who were projected to be target magnets with bad quarterbacks — Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore — and those ended up being poor fantasy selections. Johnson looks like he is in that similar ilk, so I am hesitant to get excited about drafting/ranking highly.
Let’s not forget that last year’s heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Darnell Mooney (WR26) Jakobi Meyers (WR33) and Kendrick Bourne (WR30).
Moreover, by most accounts, new Steelers’ rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett would be drafted after all the 2021 signal-callers, so what makes the experts so confident that he can fuel a fringe WR1 season for Johnson?
The Steelers are one of those offenses that have the chance to totally bottom out in 2022, with major question marks at quarterback.
And I know that arguments and takes will be made as to why Trubisky is a better option at quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger was last season; it’s possible that happens.
Just be aware that in Trubisky’s best season (2018) as an NFL quarterback, the Bears’ offense ranked 24th in yards per game (344) and 10th in points per game.
The room for an improved offense is realistic, but I’m not as bullish on paying the premium price for a wide receiver like Diontae Johnson in Round 4 with so much uncertainty under center.
Johnson already threaded the needle with bad quarterback play last season – finishing as the lone top-10 WR in half-point scoring on an offense that generated a negative EPA per dropback.
Four more finished in the WR18-WR24 range.
Receivers like Johnson are fantasy WR2s and won’t be fantasy WR1s on their existing bad offenses unless they see absolutely absurd target volume.
It also needs to be considered that the new quarterbacks have zero ties to Johnson being their primary target. Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens, and Calvin Austin III will all be vying for targets in the Steelers’ passing attack.
There’s also a chance that the Steelers’ pass-play rates drop dramatically with an inexperienced and/or new quarterback. Pittsburgh has ranked second in pass-play rate over the last two seasons with Ben Roethlisberger. During the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed all but two games, the Steelers ranked 23rd in pass-play rate. Nobody on that offense saw more than 100 targets.
Why pay a premium for Diontae Johnson’s 2021 26% target share in Rounds 3/4, when you can take other WRs that project to lead their team in targets ie. Michael Thomas, Cooks, Mooney, Christian Kirk, Kadarius Toney, Allen Lazard that go much later.
Also greatly prefer Chase Claypool at ADP outside the top-100 picks.
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA) ADP: 46 OVR, WR15
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. Both guys have sub-80.0 career passer ratings. Wilson‘s career passer rating (101.8) ranks second all-time among QBs with 100 starts.
It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts DK Metcalf in a tough spot.
The alpha wideout rose to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th — same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.
But I suspect that removing their quarterback, who led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury, is going to create a much more significant impact over a 17-game sample size.
Metcalf thrives off touchdown production — 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons –, but scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense.
One of Seattle’s two top pass catchers might be able to get by based solely on volume in 2022, but that’s a bet I am not willing to make drafting in the middle rounds.
There’s also no guarantee that Metcalf holds a stranglehold as the team’s target share leader after he and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares over the last two seasons.
The other major concern is how much raw passing volume is even available in the Seahawks’ offense, with head coach Pete Carroll looking to establish the run early and often. And the addition of a capable No. 3 pass-catcher in Noah Fant should not be overlooked. Recall that when Gerald Everett was most productive in 2021 it took a toll on Metcalf’s numbers. The former Seahawks tight end out-scored Metcalf from Weeks 10-16.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI) ADP: 86 OVR, WR35
DeAndre Hopkins is being suspended six games for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drug policy.
The alpha WR falls into the WR4 range for redraft purposes because he won’t be available for most of the season. Hopkins also wasn’t the same dominant target hog in 2021 as he had been for so many years prior.
He battled through injuries and produced just one game with double-digit targets and two games with 80-plus receiving yards. Hopkins saw double-digit targets eight times and went over 80 receiving yards seven times in 2020.
It’s hard to imagine drafting Hopkins over Marquise Brown with the six-game suspension baked in. It’s not worth the roster management headache when the start of the season is so crucial for waiver wire transactions.
Also, there’s no guarantee Hopkins will be returning to the lineup in Week 7 as a locked-and-loaded fantasy WR1.
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) ADP: 72 OVR, WR30
Fantasy football doesn’t have to be complicated. And neither does fading Adam Thielen, who failed to finish as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in over half of his games for the second straight season.
The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s something that just isn’t sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship that will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Dalvin Cook is long overdue for positive touchdown regression. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally be catching up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter back in 2016.
With a slew of ankle injuries from last season also foreshadowing more potential issues for Thielen in 2022, the Vikings wide receiver has a plethora of red flags that suggest staying away entirely.
I’d rather just wait and take a shot on the Vikings No. 3 wide receiver, K.J. Osborn. Osborn posted one fewer top-24 finish than Thielen (seven vs. six) in 2021. His 38% WR2 finish rate also ranked extremely high for a real-life WR3.
Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) ADP: 63 OVR, WR24
Deshaun Watson will likely miss a significant portion if not all of the 2022 season. Without Watson or Baker Mayfield (who is officially a Carolina Panther), Cooper is left with Jacoby Brissett. Although Brissett has plenty of experience and can prove to be serviceable, he is a significant downgrade compared to Dak Prescott.
If Cooper only managed to finish as WR27 in 15 games with Prescott, it’s hard to be optimistic about him as the Browns WR1 or your fantasy WR2.
There’s also a glaring issue with the indoor/outdoor splits that Cooper has posted during his career.
Over the final ten games of the season, the Browns play one game indoors (December 4th at Houston).
I’m probably fine not drafting Cooper in redraft leagues with him likely shaky to start open the year. I’d rather buy low a few weeks in.
Obviously, his fantasy ceiling will grow when Watson makes his return, but I am not sure I’m willing to draft a player in Round 5/6 knowing it will take six weeks for the ROI to kick in.
Not to mention, the up-and-down play from Cooper won’t be subsiding anytime soon based on the reasons I’ve laid out.
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce (TE – KC) ADP: 13 OVR, TE1
In 2021, the Chiefs tight end posted his worst points per game average (16.6) dating back to 2017 while also posting a career-low in yards per route run (1.84) and PFF grade (81.8).
It seems logical that Kelce’s reign as the perennial consensus TE1 has come to a conclusion as he enters his age-33 season in 2022. However, it’s impossible to ignore the high-end target share that Kelce will command in the Chiefs’ offense after they traded Tyreek Hill. His 20% target share ranked second-best at the position in 2021. Although it was a slight fall-off from his 23% average target share from 2019 and 2020.
Kelce seems much more like the steady safe option at the Round 1-2 turn of fantasy drafts than a true difference-maker like Mark Andrews was last year or Kelce himself for several years previously.
TE Fantasy points per game 2018-2021
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
| Travis Kelce |
18.1 |
16.9 |
22.1 |
16.6 |
| Fantasy TE2 |
16.7 |
14.6 |
17.5 |
16.6 |
| Differential |
+1.4 |
+2.3 |
+4.6 |
0 |
Kelce’s still being drafted based on the merits of his outlier 2020 season — 22.1 PPR fantasy points per game — when anything short of 17 PPR fantasy points per game will likely result in a top-20 overall finish based on final scoring the past two seasons. In four games without Hill in 2019, Kelce averaged 16.5 PPR fantasy points per game.
My only exception to fading Kelce in 2022 comes on leagues played in ESPN. His ADP is lowest there versus any other platform.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) ADP: 23 OVR, TE1
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens’ fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share, and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first.
With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as the clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets.
However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1, it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career year. Andrews’ increase in route running was tied to the Ravens’ boosted pass-play rate (56%).
From 2019 to 2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore’s increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I’d project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season.
Considering Andrews’ second-round ADP is significantly higher than it was in 2021 (fifth round), he’s too expensive for me with him likely regressing statistically as the Ravens get back to the run game.
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) ADP: 92 OVR, TE9
Dawson Knox has major red flags on his profile from his impending touchdown regression to his super-low target rate per route run (14%) in 2021.
Considering Knox is being drafted in the middle range of TEs (TE9) that typically have poor ROIs compared to guys going later, the Bills tight end remains hands-off at his current draft price.
He finished as a top-12 option in fewer than half of his games played last season.
Pat Freiermuth (TE- PIT) ADP: 115 OVR, TE12
No rookie tight end flew up the tight end rankings from Year 1 to Year 2 more than Pat Freiermuth, who made his case as a fringe fantasy TE1 as a rookie. The Pittsburgh Steelers rookie ramped things up in Week 6 after an injury to Eric Ebron and never looked back.
Baby Gronk was the TE7 from that time forward, averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game. He would go on to finish the year as the TE13 overall despite running a route on just 56% of dropbacks.
When starting and healthy, Freiermuth ran a route on 67% of dropbacks — a rate that would have ranked 15th-highest at the position in 2021. That’s the bare minimum usage fantasy drafters should expect to see from the Penn State product with Ebron gone in free agency.
Just be wary to not overinvest in the Steelers’ second-year tight end with touchdown regression likely coming his way in an offense that might not score many total points. He was the only pass catcher last season to catch seven touchdowns and accumulate fewer than 500 receiving yards.
His TE12 ADP is a lofty price to pay on an offense that has major question marks at the QB position and high competition for targets.
Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA) ADP: 108 OVR, TE11
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes.
Neither of those helps Gesicki, who I am way lower on than consensus. I am concerned with limited offensive pass attempts that Gesicki will see his target numbers dip, making his 2021 production a challenge to repeat.
The tight end/slot receiver hybrid finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) through 18 weeks of action. This receiving and route volume led to only moderate success in fantasy football, as Gesicki finished as TE9 (TE8 Weeks 1-17).
His efficiency metrics left something to be desired, though — he was 13th in fantasy points per game (9.9) and 15th in yards per route run. Part of that does fall on the up-and-down quarterback play, but it just further cements Gesicki as a good, not great tight end in fantasy football.
My biggest concern is that Gesicki has always been underwhelming after the catch — which will likely be a large part of the Dolphins’ new-look offense. His 3.2 YAC/reception ranked 41st of out 42 qualifying tight ends.
Gesicki did deliver worthwhile fantasy production at times, as displayed by his TE6 standing from Weeks 3-15 (11.5 fantasy points per game). And 94% of his snaps came lined up in the slot or out wide in 2021, which is another advantage for creating mismatches.
But all in all, he tends to only rise to the occasion for fantasy purposes when targets become available in the offense because of injuries to other players.
The athletic tight end might end up meeting his mid-range 2022 ADP/ECR based on his consistent play the past two seasons, but he won’t enter the top-tier fantasy tight end conversation without an elite quarterback or a boatload of volume coming his way.
He also seems primed to play more inline and block more than ever before in 2022 with the expectations set by the new coaching staff. It makes sense that he would spend less time in the slot with both Waddle and Hill offering experience operating inside.
Gesicki is replaceable enough that you are better off just waiting on a different late-round tight end.
Hunter Henry (TE – NE) ADP: 165 OVR, TE17
Hunter Henry emerged as Mac Jones‘ No. 1 red-zone weapon in his first year with the New England Patriots, finishing second in end-zone targets (13) and tying for first in red-zone touchdowns (9) with Mark Andrews.
But Henry’s dependency on scoring touchdowns for fantasy made his production extremely volatile with just a 14% target share (13th). In seven of his games, he finished as a top-12 tight end. In the other eight games, he finished outside the top 18.
I’d anticipate Henry to experience some touchdown regression in 2022, especially with fellow teammate tight end Jonnu Smith slated for a larger role in his second year with the team and newly-acquired DeVante Parker poising as another red-zone threat.
Andrew Erickson’s 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
