A fantasy football sleeper can cover many players, from completely off-the-grid guys going overly late in drafts to players with significant upside flying under the radar.
“Deep sleepers” are always fun to seek out, but often they’re such long shots that we can’t rely on too many of them. Therefore it is good to provide a broad spectrum when discussing sleeper targets.
The following list of players will guide you through the beginning of Round 8 (85th overall in a standard 12-team league) into the later double-digit rounds of your fantasy football drafts. The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Elijah Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cordarelle Patterson last season. These players found in the middle or late rounds are worth targeting/reaching for vs. ADP given their league-winning upside. Other players are screaming values.
A fantasy football sleeper can cover many players, from completely off-the-grid guys going overly late in drafts to players with significant upside flying under the radar.
“Deep sleepers” are always fun to seek out, but often they’re such long shots that we can’t rely on too many of them. Therefore it is good to provide a broad spectrum when discussing sleeper targets.
The following list of players will guide you through the beginning of Round 8 (85th overall in a standard 12-team league) into the later double-digit rounds of your fantasy football drafts. The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Elijah Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cordarelle Patterson last season. These players found in the middle or late rounds are worth targeting/reaching for vs. ADP given their league-winning upside. Other players are screaming values.
My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform). It’s too soon for me to be attacked by “he’s not a sleeper in MY league” social media trolls. Also, all 32 teams will receive representation. Even the Falcons. It just won’t be Drake London — sorry, not sorry, DBro.
And for you true fantasy football degenerates who are at max entering Best Ball Mania III during the dog days of summer or playing in monster 14-16 team leagues, I’ve included some of my personal favorite deep sleepers — and some super deep sleepers — who will surely surprise you. So feel free to draft them with your last pick in all your summer best ball drafts or stash them on your 50-man fantasy football dynasty rosters.
For my favorite non-sleeper picks, be sure to check out the following articles:
– Top-Middle Round Draft Picks
– Early-Round Draft Picks
– Perfect Round-By-Round Draft Strategy
Running Backs
I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I recently found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge. I wrote an entire article on the topic titled “2022 Fantasy Football: Identifying sleeper and late-round RBs to target” that mentions several of the following running backs as potential breakouts/sleepers based on their current ADPs.
The Buffalo back was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the RB3 in half-PPR scoring over the final six weeks of the season with 15.8 fantasy points per game despite only 14 receptions.
The underrated rusher ranked first in the NFL in routes run and third in the NFL in red-zone touches (29), more than double that of quarterback Josh Allen.
He gained the coaching staff’s trust by earning 54-plus snaps to close out the season, the highest snap number Singletary saw all season dating back to Week 1.
With a proven track record and two years of bell cow back usage in spurts, don’t be surprised when PFF’s fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards and seventh-ranked player in forced missed tackles in 2021 is the highly sought-after RB breakout who emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield.
Rookie James Cook is talented, but it remains to be seen how much work the undersized back will see from the get-go. As noted by the Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia, “It would be illogical to think Cook is going to step into a gargantuan role as a rookie while Singletary remains on the roster. Still, Cook’s skill set can help them use the rookie more creatively than their other backs.”
Either way, you should always be trying to leave your drafts with at least one, if not both, Bills’ running backs because their upside in a high-powered offense is not being captured in their asking price.
That dovetails nicely into Cook’s write-up because if Singletary doesn’t fire surely the former Georgia Bulldog will be the reason why. The Bills’ second-round pick in this year’s draft has immediate sleeper fantasy appeal across all PPR formats based on his draft capital, pass-catching prowess, explosiveness, and offensive situation. The 5-foot-11, 199-pound running back has more than enough heft to manage a decent workload, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.
As previously noted, Singletary got workhorse treatment at the tail-end of last season despite measuring in at 5-foot-7 and 203 pounds. With an ADP of RB40 (104th overall), Cook seems priced closer to his floor than his ceiling considering Round 2 running backs have finished as top-36 running backs more than half the time (55%) since 2013.
And you can’t overlook how aggressive Buffalo has been trying to add a dynamic pass-catcher in their offense with failed attempts at J.D. McKissic and Christian McCaffrey, along with rumors that they were dead set on taking Travis Etienne Jr. in the 2021 NFL Draft.
This drive for a receiver out of the backfield might be coming from the Bills’ new offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, who may know a thing or two about the value of a pass-catching running back.
In his last year with Carolina in 2017 as the QB coach, Dorsey oversaw a mobile Cam Newton pepper rookie running back Christian McCaffrey to the tune of 113 targets for 80 catches for 651 receiving yards.
Simply put: There’s a lot of untapped potential and upside for Cook in Buffalo’s explosive offense.
Kareem Hunt has requested a trade his offseason. His contract expires in 2023, and the Browns have a stable of backs behind Chubb, including D’Ernest Johnson — who recently signed a one-year deal worth up to $2.433 million, including more than $900,000 in guaranteed money — Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton.
As a result, he is a prime trade target for any team that suffers an RB injury.
Last year Hunt was limited to just eight games due to a calf injury — but he maintained his effectiveness when healthy through the first six weeks of the season. As a result, he was a top-10 running back in PPR, averaging 17 fantasy points per game and just south of 15 touches per game.
His sixth-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.54), sixth-ranked yards per route run (1.81) and 26% target rate suggest he’s not slowing down entering the season at 27 years old.
A change of scenery would allow him recapture his rookie year accolades when he led the NFL in rushing yards. And if he stays in Cleveland, he’ll likely return at least his RB31 ADP.
If Hunt is ultimately moved, Johnson becomes the next man up for the Browns. He is certainly capable of the job after an extremely impressive 2021 campaign that saw him finish as PFF’s highest-graded rusher (90.6). In addition, Johnson delivered in his three starts, averaging a whopping 22.6 fantasy points per game.
Melvin Gordon is bound to be written off by fantasy draft pundits this offseason due to his age, but he proved that he still had gas in the tank in 2021. The 29-year-old running back was efficient across the board, ranking eighth in both PFF rushing grade (83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) while compiling 231 touches (16th).
Gordon finished right behind Javonte Williams as the fantasy RB18 and played one fewer game. However, Williams finished as the highest-scoring running back that week.
With him back on a high-powered offense and with the potential to receive goal-line touches — he led the Broncos with 46 red-zone touches last season — Gordon could easily become a screaming value in 2022 like James Conner or Leonard Fournette last year.
All the rhetoric out of Broncos’ camp is that Denver will man a two-RB platoon between Gordon and Javonte Williams, ensuring MG3 gets his requisite touches to be fantasy relevant.
Plugged-in Broncos reporter Cecil Lammey spoke upon Gordon getting plenty of reps in padded practices, while also calling out fantasy football GMs for drafting Williams too high at his ADP.
And Broncos OC Justin Outten recently spoke on the RBs being on a pitch count throughout the season. Most likely an approach to keep both RBs upright for the 18-game season. Great for Williams’ availability season-long, but not his weekly ceiling which will likely stay in the RB2 range unless he earns the lion’s share of high-value touches.
Simply put: The wide margin in ADP between Williams and Gordon (RB35) needs to be much closer. All things considered, I’d just wait to draft Gordon several rounds after Williams to get a cheap piece of the Broncos’ backfield.
Rhamondre Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board.
He was PFF’s third-highest graded running back (84.2). Additionally, Stevenson ranked 13th in rushing yards and yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Damien Harris.
Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. In the six games together, Stevenson slightly edged out Harris in expected fantasy points per game (9.3 vs. 8.9).
There’s a high ceiling for Stevenson, especially if you ask former Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich. The ESPN analyst said that Stevenson “…will be one of the better, if not one of the top three, running backs in the league based on what I saw with his strength, explosion and catch-and-run ability.”
With rumblings coming out of Foxborough that Stevenson is a dark horse to see an expanded role on third downs with James White officially retired, the second-year back needs to be a priority target as the draft slips into the double-digit rounds.
Rookie RB Rachaad White looks just like one of Leonard Fournette’s backups at the moment. But there’s an outcome where he delivers massive upside should Lenny go down with an injury or revert to Fat Lenny.
White has shades of David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell in his style of play, which didn’t go unnoticed by the new senior football consultant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians.
The Arizona State product ranked first in his class in receiving yards, No. 1 in yards per route run (2.24) and second in receptions (43). His 16% target share is bonkers for a running back at the college level, and it did wonders to generate his Day 2 draft capital.
The same sentiment can be made for White’s 31% dominator rating and 3.33 offensive yards per snap over the past two seasons. Both would have ranked in the top three in last year’s class.
His yards per snap and PFF receiving grade also rank first among the class. White’s career receiving grade was superior to anybody from last year’s class as well.
After a strong showing at Senior Bowl week — PFF’s highest-graded rusher (74.9) — and at the NFL combine — 38-inch vertical jump (86th percentile), 125-inch broad jump (87th percentile) — White has league-winning potential if given the opportunity in the Buccaneers’ offense.
The Seahawks drafted Kenneth Walker in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but there’s no guarantee that he will supplant a healthy Rashaad Penny from Day 1. Penny was brought back on a one-year deal worth $5 million (12th-highest cap hit) after an impressive end to the 2021 regular season. He was the fantasy RB1 over the final five weeks of the season.
It seems more likely than not that the team rides Penny till the wheels fall off to start the season, then turn to their rookie RB down the stretch. That makes Penny enticing as a late-round RB target for those looking for immediate production out of the gates.
One of my favorite cheap back targets is Khalil Herbert. David Montgomery is in the final year of his rookie contract, and the new coaching regime will have no loyalty toward him. That could open the door for Herbert to earn a more significant role, which he more than deserves after how well he played in 2021.
Herbert was PFF’s fourth-highest-graded rusher (84.6) from Weeks 5-8 with Montgomery sidelined. The rookie rushed for at least 72 yards in all four games. Montgomery rushed for 72 yards four times all season.
The Bears also own the easiest schedule for RBs, bolstering the case for Herbert as a solid bench stash. He also might be a better fit for the zone-running scheme that new OC Luke Getsy will be bringing in. PFF graded Herbert in the 96th percentile on zone rushes. Montgomery ranked in the 43rd percentile.
I didn’t think highly of Tyrion Davis-Price before the 2022 NFL Draft, citing his lack of elite explosiveness (seventh percentile vertical jump and 39th percentile broad jump), inadequate pass-game pedigree and underwhelming 19% dominator rating during his final breakout season at LSU.
With arguably the worst yards per scrimmage play in the class, TDP initially looked like a carbon copy of the 49ers’ third-round pick last season, Trey Sermon. However, his profile as a gap scheme runner makes the pick questionable to a zone-heavy team.
Davis-Price is also not elusive — 29th in broken tackle rate per Sports Info Solutions — so he will require wide-open lanes to be effective. He also struggles to create yards after contact. His 2.8 yards after contact per attempt ranks 28th in the class.
But all of these concerns are being baked into his free ADP, which isn’t capturing his initial burst and long speed — 77th percentile 40-yard dash and 73rd percentile 10-yard split time — or the most critical metric regarding his Year 1 projection: Round 3 draft capital. And above all, the 49ers’ offense breeds an efficient running game like no other that can easily open lanes for the rookie’s speed.
It’s not hard to envision a scenario where the 49ers are forced to turn to their physically bruising rookie running back in the wake of a potential injury to an undersized Elijah Mitchell in 2022 or just use the two in tandem.
San Fran’s coaching staff liked the way Davis-Price bullied defenders in the 4th quarters of games at the college level, so it’s easy to picture him in a similar “finisher” role in the pros.
And as noted in my article titled “Players to Avoid for 2022 Fantasy Football,” the 49ers’ fantasy RB to roster in fantasy football is rarely the first one off the draft board.
Case in point, Raheem Mostert was the first guy drafted these past two seasons, when Mitchell/Wilson were better fantasy assets. The same story played out the two years prior with Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon. Mostert and Matt Breida were the SF RBs to own based on how the season played out.
- 2021: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Elijah Mitchell RB1.
- 2020: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Jeff Wilson Jr. RB1.
- 2019: Tevin Coleman drafted RB1, Matt Breida drafted RB2. Raheem Mostert RB1.
- 2018: Jerick McKinnon drafted RB1, Alfred Morris drafted RB2. Matt Breida RB1.
- 2017: Carlos Hyde drafted RB1. Hyde RB1.
And for the reason listed above, it does mean that you should have an open mind when it comes to the 49ers 2021 third-round draft pick, Trey Sermon. Most training camp reports have praised Sermon’s improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, so it’s not crazy to think he could end up winning the RB2 role.
Main point: Don’t overinvest in any one 49ers RB. And don’t use the team’s depth chart as a guide. Mitchell wasn’t even on it last August.
In the six games that Darrel Williams was the clear-cut starter in the Kansas City Chiefs’ backfield, he averaged 19 fantasy points per game (PPR) on 18.3 touches per game. He also averaged nearly 100 yards from scrimmage (96.3), scored 8 TDs and posted zero fumbles on 191 touches. Williams is the James Conner backup to target across all formats, as he’d likely inherit the RB1 role should the injury-prone starter go down. His body of work as a receiver and goal-line back presents him with immediate fantasy RB1 upside.
The former undrafted free agent (UDFA) led the Chiefs backfield in red-zone touches and averaged 4.5 receptions per game as the starter in 2021. His 47 catches overall ranked ninth.
Although Williams’ fantasy stock has fallen in recent months at the hands of Eno Benjamin generating the most buzz as the Cardinals No. 2 running back. But it seems more like Benjamin will fill the role vacated by Chase Edmonds, not necessarily be the player with the most to gain if Conner were to suffer an injury.
Because that’s ultimately the only reason you are drafting/stashing Williams anyway. He won’t have any stand alone value as the RB3.
I love me some Tyler Allgeier. The Atlanta Falcons’ fifth-round rookie running back ranks first in rushing yards after contact (1,847), second in rushing touchdowns (36) and third in PFF rushing grade (94.8) among FBS players with at least 150 carries over the past two seasons. Before he was drafted, he stood out as one of my favorite 2022 running back prospects based on his 36% dominator rating during his final year at BYU.
I fully believe Atlanta would have taken him in Round 4 if they had a pick available, so I don’t think it’s fair to view the RBs who went in Round 4 in a different light.
I also don’t think it’s outlandish to think that he’s already the best pure rusher among a backfield that consists of Cordarelle Patterson, Damien Williams, Qadree Ollison, Jeremy McNichols and former DB converted running back Avery Williams. Moreover, he’s proven to be able to shoulder a massive workload as both a rusher and receiver, which is not true of any other back for the Dirty Birds.
He also fits the profile as a physical north-south runner who head coach Arthur Smith is all too familiar with from his days spent with Derrick Henry in Tennessee.
Just be warned, as is the case for most rookies, it will take some time with Allgeier. The RB strength of schedule for the Falcons is brutal, especially early on. Additionally, the Falcons have a stretch of strong run defenses to open the year against the Saints, Rams, and Seattle — PFF’s top-three ranked run defenses from 2021.
The tough slate of run defenses figures to play more into Patterson and/or Williams’ strengths as receivers. From Weeks 1-14 last year, Patterson ranked as RB7 averaging 15.8 fantasy points and nearly five targets per game. The former first-round pick’s 25% target rate per route ranked No. 1 among all running backs.
Williams is also a name to keep tabs on simply because of the coaching connection with the new Falcons’ RBs coach, Michael Pitre. Both spent the 2021 season with the Chicago Bears. In his two games with a lead role last season, Williams averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game.
Taking a flier on Kenneth Gainwell is a bet on his pass-catching chops in the Eagles’ offense. The Memphis product finished sixth in yards per route run, hauling in 38 of his 50 targets for 302 receiving yards. And in five games where he played at least 35% of the snaps, Gainwell averaged 17.5 fantasy points (PPR) and 4.2 catches per game on just 12.4 touches per contest.
Among the Eagles’ crowded backfield, Gainwell playing on third downs as the primary pass-catcher provides him weekly standalone value. But there’s always a chance he gets more work on early downs and in the red zone entering Year 2.
The team’s leader in red-zone touches from last season (Jordan Howard with 24) is no longer on the roster. Gainwell scored five touchdowns from inside the 20-yard line last season.
However, be wary that it might take some time for Gainwell to earn targets, and his spiked weeks might make him better in PPR formats like Nyheim Hines. The Athletic’s Zach Berman weighs in below on Gainwell’s Year 2 potential.
It does work in Gainwell’s favor that he appears to be in the team’s plans for high-leverage situations ie. third down, passing situations and at the goal-line.
The Chargers are no strangers to taking shots on bigger, unathletic running backs on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Joshua Kelley was the guy in 2020, and Larry Rountree was the guy in 2021.
Isaiah Spiller represents the latest rehash of the Chargers trying to find an appropriate thunder to Austin Ekeler‘s lightning, and I for one think Spiller is already the best bet currently on the roster. The former Texas A&M running back has the capacity for three-down start duties with an all-encompassing skill set and desirable size — 6-feet and 217 pounds.
Spiller should be a solid producer for the Chargers if given the opportunity, although his lack of top-notch speed could keep him from being elite. He had only eight carries of 20-plus yards in 2021.
But I’d be hard-pressed to ignore his impressive age-adjusted production as one of his most encouraging traits. Since Day 1 at Texas A&M, Spiller has been the lead dog for the Aggies.
As a true freshman in 2019, he scored 10 rushing touchdowns and finished 16th in the nation in yards after contact per attempt en route to a 22% dominator rating.
The power running back capped off his first year impressively with back-to-back seasons of 1,000 rushing yards and 100 missed tackles. Spiller also displayed receiving prowess, commanding at least an 8% target share and an average of 25 receptions per season.
With Justin Jackson part of the Detroit Lions, Spiller looks slated for immediate impact in Year 1.
Give credit to Sony Michel after he finished third in rushing yards and first in carries over the final six weeks of the 2021 season. The former Rams’ running back performed admirably in relief of Darrell Henderson, but Cam Akers immediately supplanted him once the second-year back was deemed healthy enough to play a full-time role.
He signed a one-year, $1.75M contract with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, joining a backfield with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Michel offers the least explosiveness of the bunch but has the most proven track record of shouldering a workload that translates into fantasy production at 5-foot-11 and 216 pounds.
Considering neither Edmonds nor Mostert (entering age 30 season) have ever commanded a consistent three-down workload, Michel has super interesting appeal if he becomes the No. 1 runner in the Miami backfield. Don’t rule it out despite his very mediocre one-year contract.
I’m shocked that Michel hasn’t fully taken over Mostert in terms of early offseason ADP because he’s probably the most proven three-down back in the entire Miami backfield. From an experience standpoint, Michel has twice as many starts (35) as anybody else in the Miami backfield. Mostert (9), Edmonds (15) and Myles Gaskin (17) just don’t have the same pedigree that Michel does as a former first-round pick.
He was also used heavily in the red zone last for the Rams, finishing top-10 in carries inside the 10-yard line (22).
I’ll continue scoping him up in the late rounds with a current ADP outside the top-175, RB55. However, it seems more probable than not that he’ll carve out a role at the goal line — a role Edmonds has never been able to grasp.
Through the first 12 weeks of the 2021 season, Darrell Henderson was functioning as a fringe RB1 in all scoring formats. He ranked as the RB13 overall and RB16 in fantasy points per game (14.3) in half-point scoring, operating as Sean McVay’s bell cow back with Cam Akers sidelined due to injury.
Los Angeles will likely turn to Hendo as their pseudo-workhorse if Akers suffers another injury in 2022. And he’s likely to be productive based on this projected three-down volume and beneficial offensive environment.
Just be wary that Henderson may not offer the tantalizing league-winning upside because of his inability to stay healthy throughout his NFL career. He’s never started more than 11 games in a season and is already dealt with a soft tissue injury during optional team activities (OTAs).
And the team trading for Sony Michel in the wake of the 2021 season, doesn’t confidence that the Rams trust Henderson. Who is to say that if Akers goes down again they just trade for another RB?
Former undrafted SMU running back Xavier Jones was a popular sleeper last year after Akers’ injury but did not get the chance to prove himself due to a season-ending injury. However, with a college connection between him and new RBs coach Ra’Shaad Samples, Jones could carve out the No. 3 RB role.
2021 rookie fifth-rounder Kyren Williams will also be vying for touches especially as a receiver.
The highest-paid running back on the Houston Texans roster is Rex Burkhead. $2.1 million of Burkhead’s $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. Meanwhile, Marlon Mack signed a one-year, $2 million deal, and rookie Dameon Pierce was drafted in the fourth round.
I envision Mack/Pierce duking out work on early downs while Burkhead slides in as the primary pass-catching back after he ranked sixth in route participation over the last four weeks of the 2021 season. The receiving role is the one to target in this backfield for a team that projects to be playing from behind frequently.
Not to mention that Burkhead came over from the New England Patriots last year alongside general manager Nick Caserio, so there’s a built-in connection from management to the field. So it’s no coincidence that Burkhead nearly doubled his career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and games started in his first year with Houston in 2021.
And over the past two seasons, Burkhead has flashed a high weekly fantasy ceiling. He’s crested 22-plus weekly fantasy points thrice since 2020. Mack has totaled 21.5 fantasy points over that span.
My one reservation with being too bullish on Pierce is that traditionally New England has been very stingy about featuring rookie running backs historically – especially ones drafted late. During Caserio’s tenure with the Patriots, Stevan Ridley’s 87 carries were the most for any non-first-round rookie running back.
It was until Caserio left New England for Houston that Rhamondre Stevenson broke that mark with 133 carries in 2021.
There’s clearly also been an affinity with veteran running backs that Texans can’t seem to quit. They force-fed David Johnson and Mark Ingram II, among other veterans, last season, despite having some younger players they could give reps to.
The fact Pierce never fully took over Florida’s backfield does raise red flags. His 12% career dominator rating is eerily similar to Trey Sermon’s (12%) from last season, and Sermon struggled to separate himself from the pack in his rookie campaign.
Even during his breakout senior season, the 5-foot-10 and 218-pound running back earned just a 22% dominator rating while sharing the backfield alongside Malik Davis.
However, I am willing to offer some benefit of the doubt after Pierce never topped 106 carries in college.
There may have been some underlying issue with former Gators head coach Dan Mullen that prevented Pierce from seeing a more featured role. Case in point: Pierce only had two games with double-digit carries in 2021, both of which came after Mullen was fired toward the end of the season.
I do think Pierce beats out Mack as the starter on early downs sooner rather than later after finishing as PFF’s highest-graded FBS running back in 2021. So he is worth a bench spot to see how things play out.
He’s also a player that I will be keeping tabs on during the season’s entirety, because it’s very probable his role expands as the season goes on. The Texans have an early bye week — Week 6 — so a bump in usage could be in play from Week 7 onward.
Jerick McKinnon already showed the capability of being “the guy” in this backfield during KC’s playoff run in 2021. In fact, from Week 18 through the first three rounds of the playoffs, McKinnon averaged 14.3 fantasy points (PPR) and over four receptions per game. When CEH returned from injury in the Divisional Round, McKinnon doubled his touches (30 vs 15).
With an established pass-catching background and obvious trust from the coaching staff to let him loose during the postseason, McKinnon should be considered a late-round pick across all fantasy formats to get exposure to the Chiefs’ offense.
He could easily emerge as the team’s No. 1 pass-catching back. This casts doubt on the Edwards-Helaire’s receiving upside after his 0.73 yards per route run ranked 64th out of 68 qualifying running backs in 2021. The mark was significantly worse than his teammates Darrel Williams (1.28) and McKinnon (1.15).
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
7th-round rookie running back Isiah Pacheco is also a late-round pick worth taking a shot on. The explosive 4.37 Rutgers running back is a sleeper candidate to eat into CEH’s workload on early downs and in the red zone.
Pacheco is generating a ton of hype out of training camp, so there’s also a chance that he takes on larger than expected role on the Chiefs offense. The two backs have swapped first-team reps on a near-daily basis.
His explosiveness – 98th percentile speed score per PlayerProfiler.com – just isn’t part of Edwards-Helaire’s game. Over the past two seasons, CEH has ranked 41st (21%) and 59th (9%) in breakaway run rate.
Although, Pacheco’s advanced metrics from his days at Rutgers — last in missed tackles forced per touch, yards per attempt and yards after contact per attempt — definitely raise concerns of how “good” he will look when the real games actually start. Also averaged just a meager 2.8 receiving yards per game his final year.
His best stat is actually in pass-blocking, finishing first in pass blocking points added – as provided by Sports Info Solutions – on the second-most pass pro snaps per game.
Derrick Gore still has potential as the team’s goal-line back. He flashed red-zone usage last season in Week 8 with six red-zone touches. Many will point to Gore’s undrafted status as a reason to believe he won’t be a factor in 2022. But the team’s belief in fellow UDFA Williams suggests that the team won’t shy away from Gore if he is indeed the best option for the job.
He was superior to Edwards-Helaire and Jones last season in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt.
According to Commanders head coach Ron Rivera, we could see third-rounder Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson work together in a similar fashion to how Jonathan Stewart and De’Angelo Williams operated during Rivera’s tenure in Carolina.
Coaches lie all the time so I wouldn’t overreact, but Robinson owning a legitimate 1B role on offense isn’t shocking based on Gibson’s injuries/fumbles and their investment in the Alabama running back in this year’s draft.
Robinson finished third in missed tackles and seventh in PFF rushing grade (90.4) while also flashing his chops in the passing game last season. He caught 35 of 38 targets for 296 receiving yards.
Robinson is far from a can’t-miss prospect but offers the physicality and size to be a thumper for the Commanders.
D’Onta Foreman signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Panthers this offseason. He will compete with second-year back Chuba Hubbard for No. 2 duties behind Christian McCaffrey, which could be extremely valuable should the latter miss time in 2022.
Hubbard finished as the RB36 last season with five top-24 weekly finishes in a featured role.
Although, I give the slight edge to Foreman over Hubbard as the favorite to emerge as the clear-cut CMC handcuff after how strong he finished the 2021 season. From Weeks 12 through the Divisional Round, he averaged over 78 rushing yards and 12.1 fantasy points per game (RB17).
Rookie running back Abram Smith didn’t hear his name called during the 2022 NFL Draft, which was extremely surprising to me based on his college profile.
His 25% dominator rating and 3.3 yards per play during his final collegiate season were outstanding marks considering he spent the previous year playing linebacker for the Baylor Bears. Smith switched back to running back for his senior season and delivered massively with 1,598 rushing yards (fifth) — 1,011 of which came after contact.
It’s almost like the guy used to play defense. Oh, wait.
With an impressive outing at the Senior Bowl — named top running back on the National team — Smith looked like he was going to be drafted. He has the requisite size at 6-feet and 213 pounds to be a three-down back at the next level if he can improve his game as a receiver. And he can still deliver explosive plays even at a large size.
His boom rate — the percentage of plays that result in expected points added (EPA) greater than one, i.e., a big play for the offense, as provided by Sports Info Solutions — trailed only Kenneth Walker among his running back draft class (16%).
But after going undrafted, Smith signed with the New Orleans Saints as a UDFA with a $222,000 guaranteed contract — one of the biggest guarantees for any rookie free agent around the league in recent years.
It’s a strong indicator that Smith will likely crack the final 53-man roster, and his special teams ability will be his pathway to being active on game day.
Just dressing for games is half the battle for many rookies, so for Smith to have a realistic path as a UDFA should not be ignored. And neither should the general ambiguity surrounding Alvin Kamara‘s legal matters after he was arrested in Las Vegas during the Pro Bowl.
If Kamara is suspended for any allotment of time or gets hurt again, Smith is looking at a depth chart composed of Mark Ingram, Tony Jones, Dwayne Washington and Devine Ozigbo.
Ingram just turned 32. Jones was a UDFA in 2020 and bombed in his lone start in 2021. Washington has been on the roster for four seasons and has totaled 47 carries.
It’s not far-fetched to think that Smith is going to have a role on an ascending Saints offense sooner rather than later. He would hardly be the first UDFA success story to come out of New Orleans ie. Khiry Robinson, Chris Ivory, and Pierre Thomas.
If he shows out in the preseason…watch out.
Michigan’s Hassan Haskins was one of my favorite running back sleepers before the NFL Draft. I claimed I’d be in on him if he got Round 4 draft capital, and Haskins did exactly that and was selected 131st overall.
He broke out in a big way as “the guy” for the Wolverines in 2021, earning a 23% dominator rating, raising his career dominator rating to 20%.
With an identical PFF rushing grade to Breece Hall (91.6) over the last three seasons, Haskins looked primed to exceed expectations in the NFL. He offers a lot of size at 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, so he can handle a heavy workload. The Michigan product also led his entire class in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line (29), which gives him a real shot at carving out a goal-line role in the pros.
Haskins will never see the field as long as Derrick Henry stays healthy. But there’s little doubt in my mind that he’s would be the clear, direct backup for Henry, who showed us that he is mortal last season.
It doesn’t hurt Haskins’ chances either that his head coach is a die-hard Ohio State alumni, and that didn’t change his mind on drafting a Michigan running back.
Although it should be noted that in total Vrabel-fashion, Haskins still has to prove he can the direct backup to Henry, with Dontrell Hilliard listed as the RB2 based on his work in the passing game.
Hilliard didn’t play in the Titans first preseason game as a “starter” while Haskins played behind UDFA Julius Chestnut to start the game. It was encouraging how often Haskins was used as a receiver — 3 targets on 13 routes run — but there’s no denying the ambiguity behind Henry’s fantasy handcuff in Tennessee.
At this time last year, the Titans RB depth chart was Darrynton Evans, Brian Hill, Mekhi Sargent and Jeremy McNichols — none of which ended up being the Titans’ handcuff to roster.
Tyler Badie tied Kenneth Walker in rushes of 10-plus yards (46) to lead the 2022 Draft Class. The undersized explosive running back enjoyed a breakout season in his final season at Missouri, stepping out of Larry Roundtree’s shadow. His 916 yards after contact ranked fifth-best in the class.
Quite the feat for a sub-200 pound running back. But what’s more impressive is Badie’s 124 catches during his four-year tenure in college — capped off by 52 receptions in 2021. That was the highest mark among all 2022 draft-eligible backs.
There’s no guarantee that either J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards will come out the gates hot coming off torn ACLs, so the 2021 sixth-rounder could see a larger role than many would expect from a Day 3 selection.
But, at worst, he’d be my favorite to emerge as the No. 3 RB because I have zero faith in either Mike Davis/Justice Hill maintaining any consistent role on the Ravens’ offense.
Davis seems like he is in the driver’s seat at back-up duties with Edwards on the shelf, getting the nod in the team’s first preseason action, followed by Justice Hill, and then Badie.
Samaje Perine is viewed as the current backup to Joe Mixon, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Evans take over that role in 2022. The former Michigan Wolverine finished as PFF’s fifth-highest graded receiver and 10th-best pass-blocker at the running back position.
His 2.11 yards per route run ranked fourth-best among all RBs, suggesting he has a legitimate shot to take over third-down duties in the Bengals’ backfield.
But there’s a case to be made that he would also thrive if an injury should occur to Mixon with an equally excellent rushing skill set. Evans’ elusive rating ranked No. 1, and his yards after contact per attempt (4.05) ranked fourth.
Fantasy gamers got a glimpse of Evans’ potential in a feature role in Week 18 when the Bengals rested their starters with their playoff spot secured. Evans played 56% of the snaps in the regular-season finale, compiling 13.9 fantasy points — seven carries for 35 yards and four catches for 24 yards on five targets.
Wide Receivers
The Giants’ new coaching staff views Kadarius Toney as an integral piece heading into Year 2. Even after they were rumored to trade the polarizing wide receiver before the NFL Draft.
And the selection of Wan’Dale Robinson early in Round 2 wasn’t exactly the vote of confidence that he would see an ultra-expanded role in Year 2.
However, what is clear with Toney is his talent. He flashed future target-magnet potential after posting 2.14 yards per route run (11th) and commanding a 25% target rate per route run in 2021 — tied for 7th best in the NFL in 2021.
His 92nd percentile PFF receiving grade versus single coverage suggests that Toney can win wherever he lines up.
The volume opportunity combined with is talent gives him legitimate top-15 fantasy WR upside at a fraction of the cost.
The Packers have the fourth-most vacated target space from last season, creating an opportunity for veteran Allen Lazard to step up and post career-high numbers.
Aaron Rodgers trusts Lazard after they have spent the last four seasons together, and their chemistry was on full display over the final five weeks of the 2021 regular season.
Lazard was the WR8 in PPR scoring on the back of 21 receptions for 290 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Someone on Green Bay will have to replace Davante Adams‘ elite red-zone production, and Lazard looks to fit the mold at 6-foot-5.
The former Iowa State product has also stepped up in Adams’ absence before, most notably back in 2020 against the New Orleans Saints. With Adams sidelined, Lazard caught six of eight targets for 146 receiving yards and one touchdown.
But I’d remiss if I didn’t also mention Aaron Rodgers’ favorite rookie wide receiver thus far in Packers training camp: Romeo Doubs.
The Nevada Wolfpack product checks off the exact three requisite boxes I need in a Day 3 sleeper wide receiver: high-end college production, a solid breakout age and a vertical element to their game.
Doubs broke out at age 19, so his top-tier production in the two years that followed should not have shocked anybody. He wrapped a bow on his college career with a top-10 dominator rating in the 2022 Draft Class, headlined by a 36% score in 2020.
As a consistent downfield threat — 55 targets of 20-plus air yards the last two seasons — Doubs has an archetype that fits well with Rodgers. And so far this summer… that fit has been on full display.
Josh Palmer averaged over seven targets per game as a rookie and scored a touchdown in his three games with a 60% snap share. He was also extremely efficient in the end zone, catching three of his five total end-zone targets for TDs.
With a downfield skill set that perfectly aligns with his big-armed quarterback, Palmer is one of my favorite late-round WRs to target. In addition, he’s got untapped potential should an injury occur to either Mike Williams or Keenan Allen, as he displayed last season.
His separation skills — 71st percentile, equal to Keenan Allen, and 92nd percentile vs. single coverage — further showcase his versatility.
The Dallas Cowboys needed a No. 3 receiver, and Jalen Tolbert fits the bill to a tee. The South Alabama product was a mega-producer in the small school college ranks.
The 6-foot-1 and 194-pound deep-ball specialist earned a career 31% dominator rating — top-three in the class — factoring in a redshirt freshman season. Tolbert posted dominator ratings of 35%, 42% and 42% from his sophomore year onward. He torched defenses downfield as the nation’s leader in targets (99), catches (38) and receiving yards (1,402) on targets of 20-plus air yards.
Tolbert also boasts a 19-year-old breakout age.
James Washington is already out with an injury, thrusting Tolbert into a role where he could offer immediate value with Michael Gallup also unlikely to be ready for Week 1 coming off a torn ACL.
He has the desired big-play ability that should gel well with quarterback Dak Prescott.
Fantasy managers are still trying to figure out what went wrong with Brandon Aiyuk during the first half of last season. He was hyped up after an impressive rookie campaign but suffered a hamstring injury during training camp, making him unreliable in the starting offense. Through Weeks 1-7, Aiyuk had just one weekly finish inside the top-25. He also averaged an abysmal 0.63 yards per route run — a mark that ranked 98th out of 102 qualifying WRs. Woof.
But give credit to Aiyuk for turning his season around during the second half. His yards per route run increased substantially (2.16, 13th), and he averaged 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game as the WR24. The former first-round pick also ranked sixth in yards after the catch per reception (6.9).
If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could be a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that Deebo Samuel was viewed in 2021. His overall disappointing sophomore campaign should not overshadow his electric rookie season.
There’s a lot of general ambiguity about how the San Francisco 49ers’ offense will look with Trey Lance under center, but we know the upside is sky-high from a fantasy perspective. There’s no denying Aiyuk’s talent/production when given the opportunity, and there’s a chance he could form a special downfield connection with Lance’s rocket arm.
49ers’ wide receiver coach Leonard Hankerson also believes that Year 3 is the perfect time to expect Aiyuk’s impending breakout.
Take the chance on a suppressed Aiyuk, who won’t cost nearly the arm and leg that Deebo Samuel will cost to draft. Their target rate per route run was nearly identical (21%) during the second half of the season.
Everything came together for Christian Kirk in 2021 because he was finally used from the slot. Unsurprisingly, Kirk established career highs across the board in targets (112), receptions (83) and receiving yards (1,035) while filling the void left by an injured DeAndre Hopkins. He also finished top-20 among all WRs in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage (87th percentile) and in separation percentage (83rd percentile).
Kirk commanded a 21% target share without Hopkins in the lineup and averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game — a top-10 per-game average. In addition, he finished with the second-most receiving yards from the slot among all wide receivers.
Kirk should stay kicked inside with the Jaguars after the team received little production from that position in 2021. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault ranked in the bottom 10 with 1.30 yards per route run from the slot. Kirk ranked 13th with 1.80 yards per route run from the slot. He is shaping up to be the new Amari Rodgers for Trevor Lawrence, operating from the inside.
Rodgers was Lawrence’s go-to receiver during the quarterback’s final year at Clemson, so it makes sense why the Jags would spend so aggressively on a slot WR. And without much more in the way of established competition on the wide receiver depth chart, it’s not crazy to think Kirk can lead Jacksonville in targets, especially if he earns Lawrence’s trust early in the summer. Early OTA reports are that the two are building a strong connection.
Kirk’s 74% targets to slot rate ranked eighth among all WRs — a mark eerily close to the number generated by Jags slot receiver Jamal Agnew. Agnew went through a midseason stretch (Weeks 5-10) when he led Jacksonville in targets.
At worst, Kirk takes shape as a strong WR3 asset who can elevate to WR2 status quickly with an up-and-coming quarterback in a pass-heavy offense.
Ancillary Jaguars’ WRs Zay Jones and Laviska Shenault are also intriguing fliers in the later rounds to take dart throws on in a pass-heavy attack.
Jones played so well down the stretch in 2021 that he earned himself a three-year, $30 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The former Raider averaged a 25% target share, 10.7 half-point fantasy points per game (27th) and 12.8 expected half-point fantasy points per game (18th) in the team’s final five games, including playoffs.
He also led the team in total air yards (1,136).
The wideout is bound to be overlooked in fantasy despite a strong 2021 finish, so consider me a buyer in the very late rounds. Jones will be a starter on the outside and inherit the wide receiver role previously occupied by Laquon Treadwell. The former first-round pick finished the final six weeks of the fantasy season 10th in receiving yards with 381 — 64 per game.
Jones, like Treadwell, also finished the last five weeks top-10 in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage — further bolstering Jones’ case as a future playmaker on the boundary.
Shenault looks the odd-man out as a carry-over from a previous regime, but don’t be too quick to bury a player who is better than many perceive based on his team-leading 21% target rate per route run on 99 targets.
Especially considering the wide receivers going into Year 3 drafted in Round 2 who have eclipsed 170 targets since 2018 is a solid group to be associated with. Those names include JuJu Smith-Schuster, D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr. and Christian Kirk.
Remember, folks — targets are earned and are a sign of skill. So don’t write off a player coming off an abysmal season where the deck was stacked against him fully to produce. Shenault having a huge Year 3 wouldn’t be all that strange to witness.
If Deebo Samuel could overcome a super-low average depth of target (aDOT) and sophomore slump, Shenault might still have a chance to break out — whether it be in Duval or elsewhere.
I’d probably classify Jones as the better value fantasy asset – the best bet to beat ADP – while Shenault remains the true sleeper due to his wide range of outcomes.
In a surprising twist, former Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage did not re-sign with his old team and instead signed with the NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gage will be vying for the No. 3 wide receiver role behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but he could easily operate as the clear-cut No. 2 if Godwin returns slowly from injury.
Most recent reports have been more positive for Godwin’s expectation to be back for Week 1, but it’s still no guarantee coming off such a serious late-season injury. So the door for Gage to be an absolute smash as WR47 going outside the top-100 picks.
Gage is coming off a stellar year after posting career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) while playing more on the outside. Often considered a “slot-only” wideout, Gage split snaps 50/50 from the slot versus outside in 2021.
He also led the Falcons with a 29% target share since Week 11 — playing 53% of his snaps for the outside — showcasing his ability to earn passing volume alongside the talented Kyle Pitts.
Any receiver in a Tom Brady-led offense should be a sought-after commodity — so consider me in on Gage in 2022. There are plenty of scenarios where Gage continues his success from the tail-end of last season.
This offense throws more than enough to keep all the mouths fed. Case in point, Mike Evans, Godwin and Antonio Brown finished as top-36 WRs in more than 71% of their games played last year.
And although the addition of veteran Julio Jones throws a wrench in Gage 2022 szn, I’d still be buying the dip. Remember, the Buccaneers shelled out a $30 million contract to sign Gage this offseason.
At 33 years-old, Jones probably isn’t playing a full-time role.
Chase Claypool’s second-year breakout was inevitably halted by Ben Roethlisberger’s lack of downfield throwing ability. On throws with 20-plus air yards, Big Ben graded 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs.
Claypool commanded a 27% air yards share on the season and led the team in the metric over the final four weeks.
He also posted nearly identical overall counting stats to his rookie season – except for the dramatic fall from 11 to 2 TDs – and more expected fantasy points per game (12.3 versus 12.5, 30th overall).
However, better days should be ahead of the Notre Dame product if Pittsburgh can get better downfield quarterback play from Mitchell Trubisky.
In 2018, Trubisky ranked second in the NFL in deep-ball pass rate and fourth in attempts.
Claypool is also due for positive touchdown regression after catching just one of his 12 end-zone targets last season. The 6-foot-5 monster is no stranger to hitting paydirt after being one of eight wide receivers to score double-digit touchdowns as rookies since 1998.
However, Claypool’s range of outcomes is quite wide heading into his third season, with 2022 second-round pick George Pickens champing at the bit to be the No. 2 on the offense behind Diontae Johnson.
Claypool’s strong 23% target rate per route run suggests that he won’t be totally phased out of the offense, but he might never take the leap to an alpha status like many of us hoped he would after his Year 1 campaign.
Either way, he’s the poster boy for 2022 post-hype sleeper status with his ADP completely different than it was a season ago. And it’s unwarranted because it’s tied to his on-field antics and lack of scores in 2022.
I like drafting him as a bench WR to see if he’s on the upward trajectory early on. I am optimistic about his role as a “big slot” in the Steelers’ offense. And if not, it’s easy to cut ties if the Steelers’ passing offense heads south quickly.
Pickens, on the other hand, is extremely polarizing in deeper formats. He initially looks buried on the depth chart, but stranger things have happened than a Round 2 WR ascending in a relatively open depth chart.
Injuries and off-field issues plagued Pickens’ draft stock, but he looks fully healthy based on how impressive he has looked in training camp. And Pittsburgh seems like the right spot for him to get his head on straight.
I already can’t wait for the heated training camp fights between him and Claypool as the gloves come off — well, not really — for target supremacy.
Pickens’ college profile screams that of a true alpha, so I’d be looking to stash him across the board before he is fully unleashed.
The Georgia Bulldog WR broke out as a true 18-year-old freshman, finishing 2019 as PFF’s the 17th-highest-graded receiver in the nation (88.0) – ahead of future NFL wideouts like Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
His 2.64 yards per route run were identical to Jefferson’s. George Pickens’ unbelievable first year generated a 27% dominator rating – the No. 1 age-adjusted mark among the WRs in this draft class.
And it’s so clear that Pickens plays with a dog mentality. Part of his highlight tape is him putting opposing cornerbacks on the ground in the run game.
Mike Tomlin is going to love this guy. And therefore, so should you.
Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore is undervalued over Round 1 rookie WRs because he was the 13th wide receiver selected in the draft as a second-round pick. But Moore has a chance to hit the ground running in the post-Tyreek Hill era, competing for targets with fellow newcomers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His impressive yards after catch (YAC) ability — tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles in 2021- and ability to play both inside/outside helps him stand out from the other Kansas City Chiefs WRs.
During Moore’s final college season, he finished as PFF’s third-highest graded wide receiver in the FBS (91.6) with a 41% dominator rating to boot. Additionally, his 3.40 yards per route run ranked in the 99th percentile among 2022 draft-eligible wide receivers over the past three seasons.
With Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, Moore could smash his current ADP into the stratosphere. It’s not that outlandish to think a second-rounder can make an immediate impact considering six of the 12 highest-scoring Round 1 & 2 rookie WRs selected since 2017 were second-rounders.
The most forgotten Chiefs WR is Mecole Hardman. Even though, he finished 9th in yds/route run over his last seven games with a solid 20% target rate per route run.
Hardman also tied Travis Kelce for the team’s second-most red-zone targets (16) last season.
Tyreek Hill led the roster with 24 red-zone targets.
It’s hard not to be encouraged by Hardman’s increased role in the red zone in his third year, which is probably an indication that he has the trust of the coaches and his QB in that area of the field. That alone should go a long way in increasing Hardman’s TD totals and potential fantasy value in 2022.
2021 was a typical season for DeVante Parker. The former first-round pick had at least seven targets in seven of his nine game played, scoring double-digit fantasy points in more than half of them. He averaged 12.9 expected fantasy points per game through 17 weeks (28th).
His acquisition by the Patriots helps shore up the need for a big-bodied wide receiver on the perimeter that can make plays downfield. But the extent of how high a target share Parker will command remains to be seen. If anything, he probably has the most touchdown upside of the New England Patriots WRs.
And that means Parker will be the most productive fantasy wide receiver on the team…in the games he plays in 2022.
Just don’t be overly bullish on him being available all season-long, as his injury history proceeds him. His 1.48 yards per route run was also his worst mark since 2018 as was his 55% catch rate.
After enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign in 2020 that saw Garrett Wilson earn a 34% dominator rating — which considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within their offense — at 20 years old, the Ohio State product ran it back in impressive fashion in 2021.
The Buckeye scored 12 receiving touchdowns, compiled over 1,000 receiving yards and generated the FBS’ 12th-highest passer rating when targeted (141.7).
Going beyond the box score reveals that Wilson is a versatile route runner who can align anywhere on the field and still win. As a result, he was deemed open on 84% of his targets in 2021.
The New York Jets were impressed and took Wilson with the 10th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft as the second wide receiver selected.
The Jets receiver room seems a bit crowded, and nobody knows whether Zach Wilson can support one or multiple fantasy assets. There are question marks.
Corey Davis has an opt-out in his contract in 2023, so that does lend some clarity to Wilson and Elijah Moore being the two top dogs in this offense. The best-case scenario is we get a poor — albeit very poor — man’s version of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins’ production from last season.
Davis is the “Tyler Boyd” in that scenario, where he gets pretty much phased out of the target pecking order. I’ll bet on Wilson finding production because he’s shown the ability at Ohio State to command targets and produce in an offense littered with other elite talents.
If Wilson earns the starting role on the outside, we could see him post similar production to Davis from the first five weeks of last season. The former Titan was the WR25 in half-point scoring with a 21% target share.
K.J. Hamler‘s a late-round Broncos WRs I can’t help but snag at the ends of fantasy drafts. He’s looks like he is on track to be healthy for Week 1, and he should benefit from targets in the aftermath of the Tim Patrick injury.
Russell Wilson has gone as far as coining Hamler as a “Young Star,” and admittedly, it’s hard not to get excited about the Broncos’ speed demon. He’s really the only pure speed wideout on the Denver depth chart, so he should see unique touches in the offense to take advantage of his vertical ability.
Injuries have obviously derailed him, but there’s no ignoring his enticing splash-play potential from the slot.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was not the highest of wide receiver Jahan Dotson during the pre-draft process, but the guy earned mid-round one draft capital and a landing spot that I think is being undervalued by the consensus.
Curtis Samuel has struggled to stay healthy and 2021 third-rounder Dyami Brown failed to fire as a rookie creating an opportunity in the Washington new-look offense alongside No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin.
Dotson’s biggest strengths to me are his reliability and the floor that he can offer the Commanders, which will translate into target volume.
That’s what he did during his final season at Penn State, posting an absurd 43% dominator rating while racking up the 8th-most receptions in his draft class.
Dotson’s sure hands – he had a 94th percentile career drop rate of two percent – will help him vacuum up targets from Carson Wentz and make him the favorite to be the right behind McLaurin in the target pecking order.
However, be willing to pivot off Dotson if Samuel is fully healthy. The versatile wideout is just one year removed from a top-25 fantasy finish and 23rd-ranked 1.94 yards per route run.
The Washington slot receiver has found success in Scott Turner’s offense with the Panthers and is basically free in ADP; despite not finishing worse than WR42 in any season he has played at least 13 games.
K.J. Osborn flashed at times during the 2021 season, but never more so than when he filled in for Adam Thielen. From Weeks 13-17, the second-year pro averaged 12 half-PPR fantasy points per game to go along with six targets.
Osborn will be the prime benefactor if Thielen starts to break down entering his age 32 season.
Rondale Moore is entering his second season with a straightforward path for an expanded role in the Cardinals’ offense. He flashed his potential early on for Arizona in 2021, with 182 receiving yards in his first two NFL games. But Kliff Kingsbury never opted to go back to Moore with the likes of AJ Green and Christian Kirk playing solid roles.
We should see Moore — and his dead-last 1.3 aDOT — experience significant growth in Year 2, especially with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the season.
During his rookie season, Moore ran 76% of his routes from the slot and finished fourth in YAC/reception (7.8). He also posted a 24% target rate per route run, which ranked 16th in the NFL – tied with fellow rookie Elijah Moore.
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)
The Giants’ second-round selection in this year’s draft has been a star at training camp, with the offensive coaching staff taking full advantage of everything the former college standout has to offer. He also has locked-up a full-time role in the starting offense as of Preseason Game No. 1 — a feat not accomplished by many other rookie WRs drafted before him.
Recall that Robinson spent a ton of snaps in the Nebraska backfield before transferring to Kentucky. In his first season playing wide receiver, Robinson finished second in the FBS in yards per route run (3.56). The Kentucky product also owns PFF’s No. 1 career receiving grade (93.4) in the 2022 draft class.
I’d be bullish on the undersized wideout because Daboll has had past success in the past with similar-sized players like Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie in Buffalo. New York also doesn’t seem overly concerned about listing him at 5-foot-11 after he measured at 5-foot-8 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Go figure.
Isaiah McKenzie (WR – BUF)
If Isaiah McKenzie can just do what Cole Beasley did last season — 82 receptions for 693 yards, WR40 in PPR, WR48 in HPPR — he will vastly out-produce his ADP outside the top-65.
Playing in a super pass-heavy offense will allow McKenzie the opportunity to soak up targets , as he has done when in previous stints.
McKenzie flashed big-time upside in his solo spot start for Buffalo in Week 16 versus the Patriots. He caught 11 of 12 targets for 125 receiving yards and one touchdown. It also wasn’t the first time McKenzie had stepped up in Beasley’s absence.
In Week 17 of the 2020 season, he put up an equally impressive outing with six catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns.
These late-season surges for McKenzie shouldn’t be overlooked, especially considering veteran Jamison Crowder has played 16 games once in the last four seasons.
Now it is possible Crowder wins the slot job over McKenzie, but that’s hardly been the rhetoric out of Bills training camp. It’s McKenzie’s job by all accounts.
But Crowder isn’t a horrible consolation. Just last year, the 29-year-old commanded at least five targets in every single game he played without leaving due to injury. In those ten healthy games, the slot receiver averaged nearly five receptions and seven targets per game.
Braxton Berrios is also a name to remember if the Jets suffer injuries at WR like last season.
He ran a route on 88% of the Jets’ dropbacks and commanded a 23% target share in Jamison Crowder‘s absence in Week 16. The plucky Berrios stepped up again with Crowder out in Week 17, commanding a 35% target share without even leading the New York Jets in routes run. He finished the day catching eight of 12 targets for 65 yards to go along with two touchdowns (one rushing and receiving).
He’s worthy of a depth stash because of his ability to command targets at a high rate: Berrios’ 24% target rate per route run over the last two seasons ranks 14th among WRs with at least 100 targets.
Jameson Williams’ talent is inevitable, but I am not overly convinced about his landing spot with the Detroit Lions for 2022. The Alabama wide receiver will likely start the year on the physically unable to perform list (PUP), and the rebuilding Lions have no reason to rush their prized first-rounder back from his torn ACL.
Williams may not hit the field until November, making him a tough guy to stash in shallow redraft formats. Furthermore, Williams’ vertical ability cannot be capitalized with Jared Goff under center.
Goff’s average depth of throw has decreased over the last four seasons, with his most recent 2021 mark (6.8) ranking dead last among 38 qualifying quarterbacks. He has also averaged just 13 completions of 20-plus air yards the last two seasons. Williams finished top-seven among all college wide receivers in receiving yards on 20-plus air yard throws in 2021.
However, Williams also possesses top-tier YAC-ability, so he should be able to salvage some production when he returns from injury.
And although Goff’s lack of deep game isn’t ideal, we have seen him fuel top fantasy WR seasons before in Los Angeles and Detroit. Most recently, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, the fantasy WR3 to close out last season. Williams commanded a 31% dominator rating last season by hanging 1,561 receiving yards, 20 yards per reception and 15 touchdowns — all achievements that ranked top-three among his 2022 NFL Draft class.
Nobody will be shocked to see Williams out-produce the combination of St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson once he fully acclimates to the offense.
I’ll take the draft day discount on Williams based on the landing spot, knowing I am betting on the long-term talent for the fantasy postseason run. Williams’ No.1-ranked 13.1 yards per target last season suggests he will have a couple of massive games that will dramatically shift the tides of fantasy matchups as the season progresses.
Van Jefferson will operate as a full-time WR in the Rams’ high-powered offense, which the market finally realizes with a recent ADP increase. In his role last season, — 20th in route participation (86%) — Jefferson finished as WR35 overall on the season and outside the top 40 in points per game.
He’s still too cheap outside the top-60 WRs based on his standalone value, and upside production spike should an injury occur to either Cooper Kupp or Allen Robinson.
Just be wary that Jefferson does come with some injury risk, after suffering a knee injury. Has a “chance” to play in Week 1.
Parris Campbell’s turning heads at training camp because he’s talented. There’s no doubt about it. It’s just his lack of durability that has been the major issue. If he’s healthy for Week 1, I’d feel great having him on my roster – at least till the wheels fall off.
Before Campbell’s injury in 2020, he looked like he was on the cusp of a second-year breakout. Campbell commanded a career-high nine targets in his lone game at full health. As a rookie, he forced five missed tackles on just 18 receptions.
A healthy Campbell’s ability to create yards after the catch (he led his draft class in total YAC) should fit in nicely with a Colts offense that often utilizes short throws and screens. Matt Ryan posted a career-low aDOT (7.8) last season.
I’m disappointed to report that I acquired zero of Titans wide receiver Kyle Philips in my rookie dynasty drafts. First, he was taken one spot before me by FantasyPros’ own Pat Fitzmaurice after I waxed poetic about him on Pat’s Fitz on Fantasy podcast. Then he got swept up right before my pick in another dynasty rookie draft.
I believe he has some sneaky Hunter Renfrow-like slot skill that most will overlook, but NFL teams like the Titans will love.
Philips commanded a 30% target share in 2021 at UCLA and could potentially become a top underneath option for Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee.
And all the talk out of Titans training camp is that the Philips has already locked up the starting role from the slot.
New Orleans’ WR room has gotten more crowded this offseason, but I can’t help hyping up my guy Deonte Harty. Harty saw an extremely high target rate per route run in 2021 (27%) and finished sixth in both PFF receiving grade (86.8) and yards per route run (2.69).
He had over 52 receiving yards in three of Jameis Winston‘s starts last season, which indicates he has some built-in rapport with the quarterback. I’m confident Harty would deliver fantasy goodness if a starting opportunity opens in the Saints’ offense.
The undersized WR finished with a 99th percentile PFF receiving grade versus single coverage last season.
It’s easy to overlook Mack Hollins signing with the Raiders this offseason after all the other splashy moves they made. However, it’s important to denote that his deep-threat profile — fourth in aDOT (16.7) in 2021 – suggests he will be the team’s field stretcher on an offense filled to the brim with elite underneath options between Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller.
The subsequent trade of Bryan Edwards further bolsters my take on Hollins carving out that No. 3 receiver role on a high-powered pass-heavy offense.
He will never get doubled with all the other weapons on the Vegas offense, making him an extremely appetizing final-round best-ball option, especially in Raiders stacks.
The Athletic’s Vic Tafur believes that Hollins will have a sizable role in 2022.
Say what you’d like about the Bears’ offseason moves this season, but adding Byron Pringle was a solid transaction. He earned at least seven targets in four of his last six games (including postseason), with the Chiefs operating as the primary slot receiver.
And only Rondale Moore and Cole Beasley boasted a higher separation rate than Pringle did from the inside.
In deep leagues, consider 2021 second-rounder Tutu Atwell as a back-end roster stash. He was a monster producer at Louisville despite his extremely small size at 5-foot-9 and 155 pounds. However, there’s no doubt the guy will have durability issues at such a small stature as displayed last season.
But a healthy Atwell could be unlocked by new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who vaulted fellow small WR Wan’Dale Robinson to an uber-productive final season at Kentucky as the team’s play caller.
So far, Atwell has looked solid during the summer and received praise from Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.
Quarterbacks
Trey Lance only started 2 games as a rookie but flashed the rushing prowess that excited fantasy managers during last year’s draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points (good for QB4 last season) and 60 rushing yards per game.
Lance averaged 54 rushing yards per game in his three games played with at least a 50% snap share and finished as a top-20 quarterback in all contests. The rushing mark was the highest ever by a rookie quarterback.
With a strong supporting cast around him, a bazooka for an arm and the QB1 role finally his own, Lance is set to light fantasy football ablaze.
Justin Fields has plummeted to QB17 in ADP. Everyone is afraid of the situation in Chicago. But don’t forget that a washed-up Cam Newton went from irrelevant to a top-12 ranked QB in one week last year because of rushing production.
Fields finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in his last four full games in 2021, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. Good for QB3, QB9, QB8, and QB10 finishes with an overall 44% QB1 hit rate considering his nine full games played. Same as Derek Carr. The Bears QB’s ADP is QB17.
He also averaged 56 rushing yards per game over his last six. All in all, Fields averaged 35 rushing yards per game during his rookie season. The last three rookie QBs to do so? Newton, Josh Allen and Robert Griffin. They all finished as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in their second seasons, with the two former QBs finishing top six.
It won’t take long for the narrative to spin on the talented Fields after he starts the season hot out of the gates. Five of the Bears’ first six matchups are against secondaries that are the weak part of their respective defense, lost talent in free agency, and/or are unproven.
In Week 1, Fields takes on the 49ers. He rushed for over 100 yards against them last season.
Per the Athletic’s Dan Duggan, the Giants want to unleash quarterback Daniel Jones. It’s music to the ears of fantasy drafters looking for a late-round quarterback with upside because Jones has the skill set to be that player in a better offensive environment.
Before a Week 5 concussion, Jones was the QB8 overall in points per game (23.3). In addition, the Giants’ quarterback ranked third in rushing yards per game (47/game) and second in PFF passing grade.
This offseason, New York drafted the best offensive tackle in the draft with the selection of Evan Neal at No. 7 overall. It provides Jones the protection he desperately needs as he looks to prove to the New York organization that he is worthy of being the long-term answer at quarterback.
With the Giants upgrading their entire offensive line through free agency and the draft, Jones is back on the late-round status in 1QB leagues and fantasy QB2 radar in Superflex formats. Recall that he played behind PFF’s third-worst graded offensive line last season.
He will also benefit greatly from the No.1-easiest strength of schedule for QBs.
The additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are massive benefits for quarterback Jameis Winston, who is starting to emerge from this offseason as an intriguing late-round quarterback fantasy option.
Winston played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game — good for QB14 on the year. The Saints quarterback also finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career.
Winston led all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64). He also ranked fourth in aDOT, which lends itself to spiked fantasy weeks.
Joe Burrow‘s massive second-year jump is encouraging for this year’s second-year QBs like Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville’s quarterback finished with the same expected fantasy points per game average as Burrow in 2021 (17.3) but underwhelmed tremendously in a poor situation. His -72.3 fantasy points versus expectation were the most of any QB in 2021.
Lawrence posted a season-high 85.1 PFF passing grade in the season finale, offering some hope that he can turn things around in 2022 with a new coaching staff, upgraded offensive personnel in place and the second-easiest strength of schedule for QBs.
There’s a strong chance that Jacksonville dials up the passing attempts with Doug Pederson calling the shots on offense. During his five-year tenure in Philadelphia, only once did the offense not finish top 10 in pass attempts.
Mac Jones’ ADP is peculiar as the Patriots didn’t necessarily do anything this offseason that would greatly impede him from taking a step forward in Year 2. Drafting Cole Strange and Tyquan Thornton with the veteran acquisition of DeVante Parker wasn’t anyone’s ideal way of setting Jones up for success, but those players are still an investment in the offense.
Therefore, Jones looks like the ideal QB2 to snag in SuperFlex formats. Over the final eight weeks, Jones averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game — a massive increase from the first half of the season (13.8) that matched Derek Carr‘s season-long numbers.
The rookie quarterback was overall highly efficient as a passer, finishing 18th in PFF passing grade, throwing 10-19 yards, 13th from a clean pocket and 10th on early downs. However, those specific metrics tend to be sticky year over year and more predictive than raw counting stats.
Even so, those numbers were equally impressive for Jones, who posted the sixth-highest passer rating (92.5) and second-highest completion percentage (67.6%) for a rookie quarterback with at least 300 attempts in NFL history.
The Stanford product turned it on over the final five weeks of the 2021 season, finishing with a 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging a respectable 17.4 fantasy points per game.
His final passer rating from a clean pocket finished first among all rookie QBs. Mills also posted just as many 300-yard passing games (four) as Aaron Rodgers and all the other rookie QBs combined.
And for his final act, Mills fueled a 7-113-2 stat line for a 36-year-old Danny Amendola in Week 18 of the 2021 season.
Mills still has so much room for growth, considering he’s only started 22 games combined at the college and professional levels. For perspective, Pittsburgh Steelers rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett has started 49 games over five years at the college level.
And after receiving the nod from the new coaching staff, Mills is projected to be the Houston Texans’ starter for the 2022 season. The team did not draft a quarterback, which greenlights Mills as the presumable starter. I say “presumably” because the Texans have been rumored to be in the market for Jimmy Garoppolo potentially, per Jeff Howe of the Athletic.
Texans’ GM has obvious ties to Garoppolo from his tenure in New England, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see a Jimmy G reunion in Houston.
But for now, Mills looks like QB1. And it’s hard not to view him as a screaming value based on how he finished last season and how his supporting cast has dramatically improved since a year ago.
The Texans invested in OL (Kenyon Green) in the NFL Draft. And he still has Brandin Cooks and second-year players Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan, who are eager to take another step forward.
In true Sam Darnold 2021 fashion, Carson Wentz should “ball out” to start the season and have the NFL media convinced he was vastly undervalued in the offseason trade market. The Commanders face 10 defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to WRs in 2021 through their first 12 games.
The first two weeks are against Jacksonville and Detroit. All in all, they own the NFL’s fourth-easiest schedule for QBs.
Wentz is easily attainable in 2QB-formats and will pay off his QB24 ADP. Wentz was QB14 last season and ranked 18th in points per game.
In Marcus Mariota’s first four starts under Arthur Smith as a Titan, he averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game. He also owned a 7-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with an average of 28 rushing yards per game.
Turnovers were the reason he was ultimately pulled for Tannehill.
Behind a shaky Falcons’ OL, Mariota will be forced to use his legs — which could provide him some sneaky fantasy football appeal as long as he remains the starter.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz’s return to form is a reminder there’s value to be had in drafting proven fantasy commodities after the drafting community has written them off. It’s a major takeaway I’ve had while constructing my 2022 rankings for all the positions: Finishing top 12 or even top five at each respective position should be held higher when it comes to ranking players going forward. They’ve done it before.
Following that precise approach would have led you to be overweight on Ertz in 2021, as the veteran was at the forefront of trade discussions all summer. He didn’t get moved until Week 7 to the Arizona Cardinals, but his production took off after the trade.
The former Eagle averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (eighth). He also averaged just under five receptions per game and a team-high 20% target share while running a route on 84% of dropbacks.
Ertz undoubtedly got a major receiving boost without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, but that will be the case during the first six games with the Cardinals’ No. 1 wide receiver serving a suspension. Ertz was TE4 over that stretch, with Hopkins sidelined, averaging seven receptions per game (24% target share).
His trust earned from the coaches and Kyler Murray to be a target hog in the Cardinals’ offense from the get-go bodes well for him to be a back-end fantasy TE1 with him returning to Arizona, even with the addition of rookie second-round tight end Trey McBride.
The starting tight end position is valuable for Arizona in fantasy, evidenced by not only Ertz’s performance but also Maxx Williams’. Before the Ertz trade went down, Williams posted two top-six TE finishes in just five games played.
Ertz is a screaming value coming off the board at outside the top-100 picks as the TE10, especially considering how impactful he will be to open the season.
It’s bizarre to be so confident projecting a tight end breakout, but that’s how strongly I feel about Chicago Bears’ tight end, Cole Kmet.
Because no tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons, but Graham’s currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet’s eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly align with his fantasy production — no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021.
That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this past year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields’ mobility — something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC.
An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022’s breakout tight end. In addition, he has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump.
Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that’s exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of ADP at TE10.
The 23-year-old tight end took a massive leap forward in 2020, finishing 12th in PFF receiving grade (75.4) and seventh in yards per reception (12.2).
If he inherits Tyler Conklin‘s vacated role — ninth in route participation — he will turn heads in 2022, coming off a lost 2021 season due to torn meniscus injury.
Chances are that the offense led by the new head coach and former Rams’ OC Kevin O’ Connell will feature a huge role for Smith. Last season with Los Angeles, Tyler Higbee operated as the true No. 1 tight end, running a route on 76% of the team’s dropbacks — the 7th-highest mark in the NFL.
Just keep in mind that Smith underwent thumb surgery, with the expectation that he is back for Week 1.
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%) with Darren Waller and George Kittle. Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.
It bodes well for Albert O that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. So although there are concerns about Denver’s third-round rookie draft pick Greg Dulcich eating into Okwuegbunam’s production, that rhetoric is likely being overblown.
Denver was already projected to feature 12 personnel — two TE sets — based on new head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s history. They ranked second in that particular deployment in 2021 while Hackett coached with the Green Bay Packers.
Newly-paid tight end David Njoku — four-year extension worth $56.75m — has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 after an encouraging 2021. He set career-highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, eighth), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends who commanded at least 50 targets in 2021.
In addition, the Browns cut Austin Hooper, opening up opportunities for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don’t be too quick to forget that Njoku already has a top-10 TE finish on his career resume.
I also don’t expect Jacoby Brissett under center to hold back Njoku.
Gerald Everett is easily one of my favorite late-round tight ends, so I am glad the consensus is finally starting to catch on. He was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he could be the featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch — sixth-most among tight ends.
His peripheral metrics in Seattle’s offense — 12% target share, 63% route participation, and 17% target rate per route run — were nearly identical to Jared Cook in the Chargers’ offense last season.
Cook finished as TE16 overall, which seems like Everett’s fantasy floor heading into 2022. However, the tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook’s average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1).
LA ranked third in that category last season (39.6). They also ranked ninth in TE targets overall.
Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season’s star at the position after finishing No. 1 overall in separation rate (98th percentile) in 2021. And he’s still super cheap at TE22.
Noah Fant is a much more proven commodity than Gerald Everett and probably profiles as a real-life top-10 tight end. He’s been left for dead in fantasy as the TE21 – basically free as a Round 13/14 pick – despite how good he was in a horrible situation last year.
Fant finished as TE1 at a 47% rate last season. He is just one of two TEs (C.J. Uzomah) that are the only two TEs being drafted outside the top-18 TEs and 150 overall players to post two top-3 finishes last season.
Fant’s 68 receptions ranked seventh-most at the position.
Green Packers’ tight end Robert Tonyan has been a rising tight end in ADP this offseason going from a fringe top-180 pick to TE19. It makes sense that Tonyan experienced a boost because the Packers ranked fourth in the NFL in vacated targets from last season, and Green Bay did not add any other tight ends this offseason.
Tonyan wasn’t particularly effective last season before his injury — only two games with over 10 fantasy points and TE29 in fantasy points per game — but the path to upside exists in an offense led by Aaron Rodgers.
Don’t be too quick to forget that Tonyan caught 11 touchdowns in 2020, and there are many red-zone opportunities left with Davante Adams removed from the equation. The new Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver has earned 28 red-zone targets over the last two seasons — most by any player.
As long as Tonyan remains just outside the middle-range tight end ADP, he is definitely worth an 11th or 12th round selection. However, with so much ambiguity regarding which wide receiver will emerge from Green Bay, the right answer might be just drafting Tonyan instead.
Worth noting that Josiah Deguara has been one of a quiet standouts in camp per the Athletic’s Matt Schneidman. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has some impressive measurables – 55th percentile 40-yard dash, 77th-percentile vertical jump – so a 2022 breakout is well within his range of outcomes if Tonyan is not ready.
After all, he led the Packers tight end room in routes run last season.
Logan Thomas is the tight end name to highlight with his supremely low ADP. I don’t think this is a result of the team drafting Cole Turner in Round 5 and more of an acknowledgment of Thomas’ return from a late-season ACL injury. Chances are he misses the first few weeks of the season. But similar to the case with many injury-discounted players, he can be a force for you down the stretch when healthy.
Thomas figures to be back in the starting role after signing an extension last season. However, I’d buy low on him across the board coming off his injury-plagued season, which limited him to just five full games. The Washington tight end role features a 90%-plus route run per dropback rate, which is extremely rare to find among NFL offenses.
Thomas also was productive when healthy last season, ranking 10th in fantasy points per game (10.7) after finishing fourth at the position in 2020.
But if, for some reason, LT is not ready for Week 1, keep second-year tight end John Bates in the back of your mind. He would be the Day 1 starter. Bates played over 75% of the snaps as the starter to close out the final three weeks of the 2021 regular season.
The Miami product enjoyed a decent rookie season, finishing with a 19% target rate per route run and four top-12 weekly finishes over his last nine games.
Jordan also dominated the receiving usage over the team’s last two games, running 40 routes to Pharaoh Brown‘s 18 and Anthony Auclair’s five. It’s a great sign that Jordan should lock down the primary receiving role at tight end in Houston, especially with Jordan Akins signing with the New York Giants this offseason.
It’s easy to envision Jordan carving out a solid receiving role in a lackluster/unproven receiving corps behind Cooks. He’s an athletic tight end with YAC-ability that I will gladly draft as my second or third tight end across any squad.
Bengals’ tight end Hayden Hurst is hardly a world-beater, but it’s hard not to view him as a winner joining the Bengals this offseason. The former Falcon is in sole possession of C.J. Uzomah‘s vacated role from last season offers some fantasy appeal.
Uzomah’s 78% route participation ranked fourth-highest among tight ends in 2021
Every-down tight ends on the field who are often in high-scoring environments will stumble into fantasy scoring. It’s a highly coveted role primed to ooze fantasy points. However, being on the field doesn’t always translate to the requisite fantasy production, especially in offenses loaded with other weapons. Uzomah’s 13% target rate per route run ranked last among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2021. Hurst’s 15% target rate wasn’t much better.
It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that Hurst is the clear-cut late-round tight end to target in 2022, but he is well worth targeting late in drafts. Hurst is just one year removed from a TE9 overall finish in 2020.
Tyler Conklin posted highs across all receiving categories while also serving as the TE15 in fantasy in 2021. He finished ninth in route participation, 12th in target share, and ninth in receptions.
His impressive season earned him a three-year deal worth $21 million with the New York Jets.
But the Jets also signed ex-Bengals’ tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency and drafted Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round. So the situation looks horrible for Conklin in a potential three-way tight end committee in a bad to below-average offense.
However, the situation alone has made Conklin virtually free across the board in early best ball drafts, and I think he’s worth the late-round dart throw. The former Minnesota Viking should be the favorite to earn primary pass-catching duties.
Conklin generated a higher target rate per route run than Uzomah did in 2021 (17 percent). Uzomah is also the superior pass-blocker, making it more likely Conklin serves as the primary receiving tight end in two-tight end sets. The same sentiment can be said about Ruckert, who served more as a blocker at Ohio State than as a pass-catcher.
It’s clear to me that Conklin has the green light to be the pass-catching tight end for the Jets, but the addition of two blocking tight ends has suppressed his ADP to TE40.
It remains to be seen how fruitful it will be for Conklin in that specific role, catching passes from Zach Wilson. But the fact that Conklin already has a solid fantasy finish on his resume gives me hope that he will vastly outperform his ADP.
Keep in mind that Jets’ offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur stems from the 49ers’ coaching tree, where tight ends have enjoyed a lot of fantasy production. And even last year’s deployment of Jets’ TE1 Tyler Kroft creates a sliver of hope that a top-tier role exists in Gang Green’s offense. Kroft ran a route on 96% of dropbacks in Week 16 and 77% in Week 18.
With Jack Doyle officially retired, newly re-signed Mo Alie-Cox TE1 szn could finally become a reality. The towering, 6-foot-5 tight end played in three games last season with Doyle limited or inactive. In those games, Big Mac caught eight of 12 passes for 112 yards — 2.04 yards per route run — and two receiving touchdowns.
His big-body type will earn him looks in the red zone from new quarterback Matt Ryan among a very barren Indianapolis Colts receiving corps outside of Michael Pittman Jr.
Alie-Cox should be the favorite to earn starting tight ends duties over second-year slot/tight end Kylen Granson after the Colts dished out a three-year, $18 million contract to the 28-year-old former college basketball standout.
Jonnu Smith signed a $50 million contract last offseason with the New England Patriots and touched the ball 37 times. Needless to say, he was a massive disappointment in Year 1 with his new team.
However, his absence of production is 100% related to his lack of playing time. He never ran more than 19 routes in any game. With all the financial incentive in the world to get Smith more involved in the offense, it’s easy to see him drastically improving in 2022.
Because when he was on the field running routes, he was extremely efficient. Among tight ends with at least 40 targets, Smith ranked first in target rate per route run (28%), first in YAC/reception (8.5) and eighth in yards per route run (1.81).
There’s no way he’s finishing at TE33, which is where Smith is currently being drafted.
Even as a rookie, Bellinger looks like the favorite to be the starting tight end in New York and be an every-down player in the Dawson Knox “role” in Brian Daboll’s offense.
Big Blue’s starting tight end sports the requisite athletic profile — 94th percentile broad jump, 83rd percentile 40-time — to create yards after the catch at the NFL level. In this year’s tight end class, the San Diego State tight end finished first in YAC/reception (8.8).
77% of his receiving yards came after the catch.
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