8 Players to Buy Low & Sell High (Fantasy Baseball)

 
We’re now midway through June and are coming up on the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season. We’ve noticed hitting begin to improve over the last couple of weeks now that the weather is getting warmer. This could end up depressing the value of pitchers throughout the rest of the year, especially those who are prone to contact or fly balls. This also means that hitters who are coming off injury or have high expected stats but lower production make great buy-low candidates. Hard-throwing pitchers with lower WHIPs and higher ERAs from poor luck, along with those who have much higher expected stats than their production, still make great buy candidates despite the warmer weather.

Regarding fast starters, we’re getting to the point in the season where athletes who are still maintaining a hot bat or fiery arm from April and May no longer have long odds to continue that throughout the season. It’s still good practice to sell high on the players whose regular production far outweighs their expected production, but just know that there’s a chance you could be wrong on the deal … and that’s OK. Winning in the trade market requires risk, and everyone has their fair share of deals that didn’t work in their favor. The key is taking calculated risks where the metrics dictate that you have a good chance of winning the trade in the end. That is the mantra our featured pundits work by when they suggest their favorite trade candidates each week. Read on to see who you should consider trading for or away right now.

Q1. Which one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?

Corey Seager (SS – TEX)
“Corey Seager has 12 home runs, so he might not be the most obvious buy-low candidate. But he’s batting just .218 with a .285 OBP and .686 OPS, so the manager rostering him is likely frustrated. There are indications that his numbers are going to normalize, however. The -.088 difference between his wOBA and xwOBA is the largest number in baseball among qualified hitters. That, combined with his .220 BABIP, indicates that the quality of contact is there and that regression (it’s a good thing in this scenario) is coming. Seager won’t be an extreme buy-low because of the decent power numbers, but a frustrated fantasy manager could be willing to move on for a package centered around pitching help like Jeffrey Springs, Adam Wainwright and the speculative saves of someone like Tanner Houck.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

“His 12 home runs on the season have helped avoid a complete fantasy collapse, but Corey Seager’s 2022 campaign has left plenty to be desired. The Texas Rangers have committed to him for the long run, but his .222 batting average must be worrisome. Why, then, should we target him? Essentially all of Seager’s “expected” statistics are positive compared to his current pace, where his batting average is almost certainly going to rise dramatically over the coming months. The best part of acquiring Seager is that the shortstop position is quite deep, where a fantasy manager probably would accept moving him for a mid-range starting pitcher.”
– Mario Mergola (Sporfolio)

“With Marcus Semien finally heating up, I’m hoping that Corey Seager’s managers have reached peak disappointment with the Rangers’ other major free-agent acquisition. Seager’s Statcast page looks pretty red for a guy slashing .221/.286/.403, and I’m particularly interested in his xSLG of .569, which sits 166 points higher than his current number. I’m OK giving up a pitcher like Tony Gonsolin or Chris Bassitt for the forthcoming positive regression of the 28-year-old middle infielder, especially given the injuries I’ve incurred at that position. ”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)
“Francisco Lindor has had a very productive season, but over his last 50+ ABs he’s hitting just .196 with a .501 OPS. The Mets offense had been without Starling Marte and Pete Alonso for much of last week. With both guys back, Lindor should start seeing another uptick in his productivity. Maybe a Gleyber Torres and a back-end SP would get it done.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Teoscar Hernandez (DH/OF – TOR)
“Teoscar Hernandez is my buy-low candidate, as he’s finally starting to heat up a bit (.356 average over the last two weeks as I’m typing this). Hernandez suffered an oblique injury early in April and probably came back too quickly, and he promptly began to struggle. There are no underlying numbers that say he should be struggling. His K and BB rates are close to the same as 2021. He’s high in average exit velocity, barrels and sprint speed as well, so I think it’s just a matter of time until he’s what we expected him to be before the injury. If I can deal from a position of strength (speed, SP, saves) and get Hernandez back, I’m jumping on it.”
– Scott Bogman (FantasyPros)

Check out our trade values for all players in our weekly Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart

Q2. Which one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?

Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA) 
“This one might be unpopular, but I’m trying to sell high on Logan Gilbert right now. This isn’t because I don’t like Gilbert as a pitcher or as a prospect. I actually love Gilbert, and this advice doesn’t apply to keeper or dynasty leagues. In redraft, though, I’m floating Gilbert to see what I can get in return. He has been excellent through 71 innings (12 starts), posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go with 70 strikeouts. But he threw just 119 innings last season, and I’m not sure how many the Mariners are going to let him throw in 2022. The best-case scenario is that the Mariners are still in contention and get creative with his innings, utilizing an opener in front of Gilbert. Worst case, they fade and shut him down early. That’s why, as painful as it may be, it’s time to try to ship Gilbert to a pitching-needy fantasy manager in exchange for a bat like the aforementioned Corey Seager or a package centered around someone like Ryan Mountcastle.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

Michael Kopech (SP – SEA) 
“Michael Kopech’s former prospect pedigree and hype will give him name value for the foreseeable future, but his start to 2022 is what is ultimately driving his price higher. As of this writing, he has an outstanding 1.92 ERA and is averaging approximately one strikeout per inning. The problem? That appears to be an overperformance. His underlying numbers produce an expected ERA of 3.15, and while that output would still be excellent, it signals a hard regression to the mean. Kopech has also never pitched more than 70 innings in a season and is rapidly approaching that mark — while also dealing with a potential ailment. Moving him now should produce a solid, highly owned hitter in return.”
– Mario Mergola (Sporfolio)

Tony Gonsolin (SP – LAD) 
“Tony Gonsolin is already at his highest IP total in his major league career (57). His highest inning total in the minors was 128. There’s no denying he’s been outstanding, but you have to wonder what his Aug./Sept. may look like. Perhaps Gonsolin for Jordan Montgomery or Logan Webb can be a deal worth exploring, planning for Gonsolin regression and getting back a steady arm on a good team in return. ”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Byron Buxton (OF/DH – MIN)
“I know this question is who I want to “sell high,” but as someone who rosters Byron Buxton, I read it as “sell healthy.” Buxton has been on one of his tears lately, with six home runs in his last seven games. He looks like June’s Dr. Jekyl to May’s Mr. Hyde, where he batted .169 with five home runs for the entire month. I plan to find the most injury-optimistic league mate with a starting pitcher in the Sandy Alcantara/Joe Musgrove tier and let THEM fearfully read the ‘Buxton leaves game early’ headlines for a while.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

Tyler Anderson (SP – LAD) 
“This might be a bit obvious, but Tyler Anderson is a guy I’m willing to sell high. Anderson has become a way better pitcher just by changing up his pitch mix this year, but his fastball is still getting hit (.333 AVG against), and his career ERA is almost 4.50, so I believe regression is coming for him at some point. The fact that he’s on the Dodgers — and with all their SP injuries, he has a firm grasp on a rotation spot — should make him a desirable asset. I would consider getting a struggling SP who was ranked high before the season started. Or, if you are dealing from a position of strength, I would deal him for a position or stat I need.”
– Scott Bogman (FantasyPros)

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