8 Players to Buy Low & Sell High (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Finding which players have been the most and least lucky after the season’s first two months is a great way to get an edge in the trade market. Understanding sabermetrics like BABIP and xFIP and comparing a player’s numbers this year compared to his career average can help in assessing whether a particular athlete is a buy-low or sell-high candidate. Research is essential when trying to make a deal, but keeping tabs on all these players can be difficult and time-consuming. That’s why we’ve got our featured pundits here to share top trade candidates at this point in the season.

Q1. Which one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?

Jesse Winker (SEA – OF)
“Friends, the time to buy low on Jesse Winker is upon us. There were some concerns and red flags coming into the season after his move to Seattle, and that apprehension has been justified through the first two months of the season. His hard contact numbers are down, and his HR/FB has plummeted from 20.7% in 2021 all the way down to 4.6% this season. But his xwOBA (.369) is 86 points higher than his wOBA, and that’s the second-highest number in baseball among qualified hitters. That means the quality of contact is there, and he’s due for some regression. This buy-low is especially true in OBP and OPS leagues, where Winker will always be more valuable thanks to his high walk rate. I traded Ranger Suarez for him in one league last week, and I’d sell high on pitchers like Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta or Jose Quintana to see if that’s a swap the Winker manager is interested in making.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

Salvador Perez (C/DH – KC)
“I am targeting Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez as a buy low. His current stats are depressing. He’s slashing .199/.240/.404 but does have a team-leading eight home runs and 22 RBI in 166 at-bats. Perez remains the best power-hitting catcher in fantasy. Perez is coming off a monster 2021 season that saw the Royals catcher lead the majors in RBI (121) and tie for the lead in home runs (48). So far this season, Perez has been dealing with multiple injury concerns, including a sprained thumb that resulted in being placed on the 10-day injured list. Rookie M.J. Melendez served as the Royals’ primary catcher with Perez sidelined. Since his return from the injured list, Perez has struggled, hitting only .166, but Perez looks to get back on track with two hits in back-to-back games and has smacked home runs in both games. Those home runs were his first since May 14. The emergence of Melendez will allow Perez to serve the DH role more frequently, which will save the wear and tear of being behind the plate. Perez hits better as the DH, slashing .270/.313/.587 in 17 games compared to his .155/.194/.291 slash when he was behind the dish in 27 games this season. Quality fantasy catchers are hard to find, so obtaining Perez when he is at his lowest value is winning fantasy baseball. Depending upon your pitching depth, moving a Yu Darvish or Charlie Morton type of starter should be enough to bolster your catcher position. ”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

Hunter Greene (SP – CIN)
“I’m hesitant to buy into rookies. I’ve been extremely critical of Alek Manoah on these quick hits, for example, and I will be again when we hit the sell highs, but Greene is different. His velocity is special in a league overwhelmed with it, and it is directly responsible for a sick K/9 ratio of 12.00. He’s struck out 64 batters in 48 innings, while he has only two wins and only two quality starts to show for it. Add to those dismal W/L and QS numbers, his ERA is over 6.00 while his WHIP is more than 1.50. Greene’s kind of “stuff” and actual strikeout production with a 2022 resume THAT ugly? He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts while striking out six or more batters in all but one start this season. That’s 10 of 11 with six K’s or more. He’s rostered in only 42% of Yahoo leagues, while his trade value should reflect a similar level of belief in the rest of his 2022 performance. Now’s the time to strike/claim him. I’d rather have Greene than guaranteed faders like Martin Perez or Tyler Anderson. I would even put serious money on Greene to be better — if the odds were right — to outperform overperformers like Framber Valdez, who has walked 25 batters in 69 innings, or Logan Webb – whose K/9 (56 K’s in 66 IP) makes his 1.12 WHIP look a bit hinky to me. Greene’s at his floor right now, buy in before the helium elevates him closer to what is a very high ceiling. I wish I could have picked two, because Jose Berrios is next on my buy-low list. ”

– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Mike Trout (OF – LAA)
“It’s not often you get a “buy-low” window with Mike Trout. I would strongly advise not dealing him, but if you’re a team that has a lot of holes to fill or looking to more desirable keepers in 2023, then deals can be made. If you are trading for Trout, you had better make a solid initial offer, no low-balling here. As hot as he was in April/May is as cold as he’s been the last two weeks. A Kyle Tucker or J.D. Martinez paired with a Tarik Skubal or Pablo Lopez would be an offer worth considering. ”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Check out our trade values for all players in our weekly Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart

Q2. Which one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?

Michael Wacha (SP – BOS)
“On Monday night, Michael Wacha tossed a complete-game shutout in a 1-0 win over the spiraling Angels. In doing so, he lowered his ERA to 1.99 and his WHIP to a sparkling 0.99. Opposing batters are hitting just .171 against him, and he’s avoiding hard contact and limiting home runs. That all sounds pretty great, right? Is it sustainable? Of course not. He is pitching well. There is no denying that. But he’s also getting a decent amount of luck. His swinging-strike rate (9.2%) is lower than it’s been since it came in at 8.1% back in 2016. His BABIP is .188 and is due for some regression, his 5.98 K/9 matches up with his lowered swinging-strike rate and indicates that he just isn’t missing bats right now, and all of his expected ERA numbers (FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA) indicate his ERA will creep back closer to his career mark of 4.04 at some point. My MAHERA model has him at 3.95. This is all screaming sell high, and fantasy managers desperate for some pitching will be interested even if they know Wacha won’t be THIS good for the rest of the season. I’m checking in with managers rostering Seiya Suzuki or Franmil Reyes to see if they’re frustrated enough by the recent struggles and injuries to make a move.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

Carlos Rodon (SP – SF)
“Carlos Rodon: There are some obvious sell-highs out there. There are the overheating beasts tearing it up who have to cool down, like Mookie Betts, who has torched the ball as of late, or Aaron Judge, who is on pace for a full season of at-bats and could become the first legitimate slugger to pass Roger Maris’ 61 home run season. Then there are the other types, like Sandy Alcantara, Alek Manoah and Mckenzie Gore, who’ve been fantastic in ways they’ve never been before, and I don’t expect them to continue to be going forward, but I’m going a different way. I’m marking Carlos Rodon with the scarlett red SELL on his chest. He’s done some filthy things before, and for him to go to San Fran, where pitchers always have their best seasons, it’s easy to see why fantasy owners would, and should, be buying in. For that reason, I’m walking away from the table and cashing in my winnings on Rodon before the market turns. The K’s have been nasty, but a 3.44 ERA and 1.25 WHIP as the foundation? A few bad bounces, a few more “groundballs with eyes” — as Kevin Costner famously said — and you have yourself a pair of ratio anchors (by ace standards) bringing you down along with fewer innings pitched, fewer W’s, and a less overwhelming K/9 than what you’re currently seeing. He’s pitched fewer than six innings in three of his last four starts, while he has struck out three or fewer batters in three of his last six starts. A fair swap would be Carlos Rodon for Dylan Cease. They both have the same issues, but Cease has nowhere to go but up, while I have serious concerns that Rodon has nowhere to go but down. I’d also trade Rodon for less heralded gems like Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers, who flies under the radar, or Aaron Nola of the Phillies, who has the nasty K/9 to hang in Rodon’s class but whose WHIP of 0.93 makes his 3.92 ERA look like an absurdly inaccurate reflection of how well he’s pitched this season. Zack Wheeler for Carlos Rodon looks like a fair swap as well, and I’d prefer Wheeler’s upside to Rodon’s downside. ”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Martin Perez (SP – TEX)
“The one player that I am trying to sell is Texas Rangers southpaw Martin Perez. I don’t buy that Perez can sustain the video-game numbers he is currently producing. In May, Perez won the Pitcher of the Month. Perez went 4-0 across six starts with a 0.64 ERA. The veteran left-hander produced 33 strikeouts, and opposing batters slashed .195/.241/.235, with the Rangers winning all six games. Overall, he is 4-2 with a 1.56 ERA and .098 WHIP. Perez has only coughed up one home run in his 69.1 innings and is walking a career-low 2.1 per nine innings. He is striking out a career-high 20.7 percent of batters faced, which ranks near the bottom of all starters. Perez is enjoying his career season to the utmost extreme. Regression will happen, but to what extent? His .226 xBA and 2.58 xERA may suggest otherwise; however, it’s unimaginable that a pitcher with a career 4.52 ERA and 4.42 FIP, and a 1.45 WHIP will continue this type of success. Opposing hitters are producing a well below-average .280/.343/.428 career slash line along with a .771 OPS and a .312 BABIP against Perez. Coming into the 2022 season, Perez was an afterthought and a super deep steamer at best. He was being drafted at a ridiculous 352nd pitcher ADP. I would sell high on Perez now and deal for a safe floor hitter at a position of weakness. I do not want to witness the eventual regression while the veteran left-hander is in my starting lineup. ”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

Joc Pederson (OF/DH – SF)
“Joc Pederson is a career .233 hitter with an .800 OPS. Currently, Pederson is slashing .271/.349/.602. That’s not sustainable for him, and you would be wise to move him before the inevitable pendulum swing in the other direction. I would kick the tires on Ketel Marte for Pederson or even Andrew Vaughn, who has far more upside as he develops at the big league level. ”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Make sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice all season and check out our Leading Off Podcast every single day for quick-hitting takeaways and advice.