If your team is on the cusp of playoff or championship contention, you may only be one or two pieces from attaining championship glory this year! Odds are good that the waiver wire has far fewer league-winning gems now than it did in April and May. Now that we’re officially in the summer, the trade market is likely the only way to acquire players with championship-clinching potential. These can come in the form of injured players like Chris Sale or Brandon Belt, unlucky pitchers with great control, overlooked groundball pitchers who can give you everything except WHIP, and underperforming hitters with much better expected stats than actual stats. Now is the time to evaluate which categories you need the most and find the undervalued players who have the greatest chance to boost you in those categories. To aid you in your title quest, our featured analysts are back to offer their suggestions on who you should consider buying low and selling high.
Q1. Which one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?
Jonathan India (2B – CIN)
“After a breakout 2021 season, Jonathan India’s value is about as low as it’s going to get. We’re nearing the end of June, and he has only appeared in 16 games this season. In those games, he’s slashing just .242/.275 /.563, has yet to homer, and has just one walk against 17 strikeouts. India isn’t someone who is going to bat .300 and hit 30 home runs, but he’s better than the small sample size we’ve seen thus far in 2022. In OBP leagues, this is a no-brainer buy-low because his 1.4% BB% is going to regress to something closer to the 11.3% number he posted last season. In standard leagues, he’s someone who could bat .260 with double-digit home runs and a handful of steals the rest of the way. I’d start my offer with the likes of Tony Gonsolin, Brandon Drury and/or Tyler Anderson, and would go as high as Paul Blackburn depending on my team construction.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT)
“I drafted Bryan Reynolds in a number of leagues this season, and now I am trying to grab him everywhere else. He is currently slashing .253/.331/.443 and his counting stats are diminished at only 30 runs, 11 homers, and 21 RBI. Many who drafted him were expecting more of last year’s numbers, and hopefully they’re willing to sell low, because the Pirates have finally called up some top prospects who should boost his counting stats. Many fantasy managers overlook good players on terrible teams, so I’d offer a “big name” like DJ LeMahieu or J.T. Realmuto in exchange.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Juan Soto (OF – WSH)
“It’s hard to say you can ever really buy Juan Soto low, but this is your chance. His counting stats are not elite. His 14 home runs are as many as Brandon Drury. Adolis Garcia is currently beating him in four of the five categories (and he’s only one HR behind him). Owners will feel that top-end frustration and question if he’ll regain his elite status back this late in the season. We want to pounce, because the buying window is actually open, even if not crazy low. He has the fourth-lowest qualified BABIP at .213, and most projection systems have him almost 100 points higher on the BABIP. He should be around a 35/15/100/100 guy. This trade will probably take two players. Maybe Arozarena and Framber. Possibly Wheeler and a hot Voit? Let me throw this out there: How much more do you think a Julio Rodriguez would cost you for Soto? I’d be getting my Soto shares now before it’s too late.”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS/OF – SD)
“Fernando Tatis Jr. won’t be making as early a return as many had hoped for, and that means some fantasy owners are frustrated. If they spent significant draft capital on Tatis, they could be in a bind, and right now, I would offer a Marcus Semien straight up or Jake Cronenworth plus an arm and see if I could pry him away. He’s basically on his originally scheduled pace again, but the plus is you didn’t have to wait three months, just another 3-4 weeks, if you trade for him. ”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Check out our trade values for all players in our weekly Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
Q2. Which one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?
Luis Arraez (1B/2B/3B/DH/OF – MIN)
“No player better represents the real life vs. fantasy player debate than Luis Arraez. The batting champ is being touted for how fun he is, how he needs to make the All-Star Game, and the classic “we don’t talk enough about Luis Arraez.” The truth is, as elite as he is with batting average, he is lacking in the other four main categories. Based on Steamer projections he’d finish the year with six homers, five stolen bases, just over 80 runs and fewer than 50 RBI. He’s doing all of this with the fifth-highest qualified BABIP in baseball at .390 Over the last 30 days though, Yahoo qualifies him as a top-30 player. One stat does not make a fantasy asset, and if it did, it’s not batting average. If I had a pitching need, I’d poke around at pitchers who have missed time but have higher upsides, like Jack Flaherty, Andrew Heaney or maybe even his teammate Joe Ryan (though shoot higher first).”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
Tony Gonsolin (SP – LAD)
“I like Tony Gonsolin. I’ve always liked Tony Gonsolin. For the last few seasons, he has been consistently undervalued — both by fantasy managers and the Dodgers. He’s on a good team, putting up good numbers, and looks like a league-winner right now. As a Red Sox fan, I was hoping he’d be included in that awful Mookie Betts trade. But he isn’t THIS good, and he’s already approaching his career-high for innings pitched. His xFIP (3.68) and SIERA (3.72) indicate his 1.42 ERA is due for some significant regression soon, and his value is only going to go down from here. Sell high at peak value and see if you can buy low on a bat like Kris Bryant, Jonathan India or Franmil Reyes.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Rhys Hoskins (1B – PHI)
“Rhys Hoskins is coming off an absolutely torrid two weeks where he slugged .737 (not OPS — just slugging) with five homers, 12 RBI, and 11 runs scored. For a player who is injury-prone, streaky, and whose career numbers lie somewhere in the range of .252/.334/.472, this could be the peak for him in 2022. Depending on team needs, I’d go after someone like Framber Valdez for pitching or Teoscar Hernandez for hitting. Heck, I’d even do a first base swap for Anthony Rizzo (who is still underperforming his metrics) if someone was willing.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Miles Mikolas (SP – STL)
“Miles Mikolas just missed a no-hitter and has had a great season for the Cardinals. His K% is the highest of his career, but it’s still not elite. His 2.62 ERA is sterling, but his previous two seasons, that number was above 4.00. This is the perfect time to sell high on Mikolas, as the Cardinals have played great baseball, and look for a bigger strikeout arm like Robbie Ray, who has a 3.30 ERA over his last 30 IP but a 4.25 mark on the year.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Thank you to the experts for naming their trade candidates. Make sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice all season and check out our Leading Off Podcast every single day for quick-hitting takeaways and advice.
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