One of my general rules in dynasty trading is to sell high and buy low. My last article went through some players I was trying to trade away, largely because I felt like they were close to their value ceiling. This week I’m going to look at some players I’m trying to acquire who I think are near their value floor and are on the rise.
Quarterback
As odd as it may sound, Mills could be the most common league winner in dynasty Superflex leagues this year. He’s on an offense that is largely getting panned by the fantasy community and is someone who most fantasy managers didn’t spend a lot to acquire previously. Mills was a third-round rookie pick in most drafts entering the 2021 season. It’s rare for someone to come out of that range and provide value, but Mills has done that.
He finished with 156.96 points as QB29 overall and QB34 with 12.1 points per game. Not amazing, but good enough to get a second chance with the Texans, at least for 2022. Given the roster around him, I want as much exposure to Mills as possible at his current cost, somewhere around the 2.08 in SF rookie drafts according to the DLF trade analyzer. Yes, please!
Like Mills, Goff is not even close to a flashy name in fantasy right now. Most dynasty managers hear the name and immediately throw up in their mouths. But hear me out. Goff is the QB for the Lions for at least 2022 and potentially for 2023. He finished 2021 as QB24 overall and QB23 in points per game. That’s at least starter worthy in Superflex leagues, as bad as it might be to watch him play. The Lions added Jameson Williams and should see improvement from D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson among others. Goff is slightly cheaper than Mills, but he’s potentially a throw-in to a larger trade in some leagues. Some managers are just done with him, but I’ll gladly take the risk on him this year if I’m in a position to win a title.
Running Back
It’s clear that AJ Dillon is the running back of the future in Green Bay, or at least that’s what we’re told. This means that Jones is on his way out and is going at a discount to other RBs in a similar range. FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) has Jones at RB19 in dynasty and Dillon at RB22. Dillon appears to be ascending while Jones is descending, but I don’t think Jones is toast just yet. I’d much rather have Jones than Dillon right now with what we know of the Packers’ offense.
I think they’ll pass to their running backs early and often, which should benefit Jones more than Dillon. Last season, Jones saw 65 targets to Dillon’s 37, and Dillon played in two more games than Jones did. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Jones see even more targets this year with the departure of Devante Adams. He’s being dismissed, but I especially love Jones at his current value for 2022.
Another pass-catching back who I’m higher on than most is Miami’s new RB1 in Edmonds. The Dolphins struggled at RB last year, using a revolving door of players you hated putting into your starting lineups. Edmonds did well in Arizona and now goes to a team that should let him lead an entirely new backfield of players acquired via free agency. Edmonds will have to contend with former Rams’ RB Sony Michel and former 49ers’ RB Raheem Mostert, but I think he’ll win out as the RB to roster in fantasy by Week 3. Backfields like this are usually ones I avoid, but Edmonds is ranked as RB35 in FantasyPros ECR, which makes him too cheap to ignore. Even if he doesn’t pan out, it’s unlikely that he will have cost so much to ruin my team. That makes the risk easily worth the reward to me.
Wide Receiver
Just like I mentioned for Mills, Cooks is going under the radar in many dynasty leagues. He’s the clear WR1 on the Texans, who are stuck in a rebuild for a second year. The 28-year-old Cooks has a long history of producing, scoring at least 13.8 PPR points per game in all but one season since 2014. In 2019 he played for the Rams and saw his career-low in receptions and touchdowns. He left for Houston the next year and bounced right back to being fantasy relevant.
Now he’s ranked WR39 in dynasty ECR but WR17 in 2022 rankings. He’s a player who should score you a lot of points this year, but if he’s on a rebuilding roster, they’ll likely be willing to get rid of him at or below his current WR39 price tag. I’m all about getting that discount on my team if I can get it, which is why he’s someone I’m targeting in trade talks as we move through the summer.
You may notice a theme for my wide receiver targets: they’re on the older side. Thielen is even older than Cooks at 31 years of age and has been just as consistent in his time in the league. Thielen has played his entire career for the Vikings, who drafted Justin Jefferson in 2020 to replace Stefon Diggs after he was traded. Thielen and Diggs were a fairly dominant duo for fantasy, and Theilen and Jefferson have been equally as dominant over the last two seasons.
Thielen has scored 16.9 PPR points per game in 15 games in 2020 and 15.4 PPR points per game in 13 games in 2021. This kind of production is hard to find where Thielen is being ranked in dynasty as ECR WR56. I’ll gladly take on an aging vet who scores 15 points per game if it helps me win a title. Don’t let the shiny new toys distract you from the duller ones at the bottom of the toy box. It doesn’t matter where points come from as long as you have more than your opponent, am I right?
Tight End
Kmet is an interesting one for me. Part of my brain says we haven’t even seen the tip of the iceberg with him or the Bears’ offense in general. Justin Fields should take a significant step up this year with a new offense behind him, and I think that helps Kmet greatly. On the other hand, we haven’t seen enough from Kmet to know if he can be relied upon to be a true TE1 in fantasy. He’s young, only 23 years old, heading into the 2022 season, and tight ends tend to take longer to adjust to the pro game.
But again, is he the real deal? No one truly knows, which is why he is being valued all over the place in dynasty. He’s ranked as TE12 according to ECR, which could be his ceiling, but if you can acquire him around that TE16-20 range, he could be a league winner, especially in TE premium leagues. If you can add Kmet to your roster at the right cost, I’m a huge fan, but I don’t recommend overpaying if the other manager likes his upside more than you do.
Hurst is more my style in terms of how I like to target players. He’s entering his fifth year for his third team at only 28 years old. Hurst hasn’t exactly been fantasy relevant in his four seasons, though. His best year was his first for Atlanta, where he averaged 9.3 PPR points per game in 16 games. The Falcons used him well, but then they went and drafted Kyle Pitts to be their tight end of the future in 2021, and Hurst was knocked down the depth chart.
Now he’s on the high-octane Bengals offense but as the fourth or fifth passing option depending on what you think of Joe Mixon. He might not see a lot of targets, but he could be in line for a lot of touchdown chances. His dynasty ECR is TE30, making him almost free in many leagues. His low risk and top 20 TE possibility make him my favorite trade target on this list. You might even find him on waivers in shallower leagues.
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his profile and follow him @AndrewHallFF.
