Our analysts are here to share a few of the quarterbacks they are avoiding this fantasy football draft season. And be sure to check out their full list of players to avoid as part of our 2022 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
- Matthew Freedman’s Players to Avoid
- Derek Brown’s Players to Avoid
- Andrew Erickson’s Players to Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice’s Players to Avoid
- Joe Pisapia’s Players to Avoid
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
5 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid
Tom Brady (TB)
ECR QB8 | ADP QB9
I’ve been expressing concern about Brady’s age for a while now, making me look like the boy who cried wolf. Brady’s ADP and ECR suggest there’s little public concern about an age-related decline even with Brady now squarely in his mid-40s. But the fact is, the living legend is sailing into uncharted territory.
Brady was 44 last season. The only other quarterbacks to have started at least one game at age 44 during the Super Bowl era are Steve DeBerg, Warren Moon and Vinny Testaverde. Only Testaverde made more than one start at that age, starting six games for the Panthers in 2007. Brady turns 45 on Aug. 3. No NFL quarterback has started a game at age 45, and George Blanda is the only Super Bowl-era player to have attempted a pass at that age.
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15 and might not be ready for the start of the season. Gronk has retired.
Brady finished QB3 in fantasy scoring last year, but he also led the league in pass attempts by a wide margin. He threw 719 passes last season, eight fewer than the NFL-record 727 passes attempted by Matthew Stafford for the Lions in 2012. Brady threw 47 more passes than his closest pursuer in that category, Justin Herbert. Brady was good in 2021, no question, but his fantasy exploits were volume-aided.
You can continue to defy the actuarial tables at your own risk. I’m simply not willing to bet on a 45-year-old quarterback — even if he’s the GOAT.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Kyler Murray (ARI)
ECR QB5 | ADP QB5
Kyler Murray played 14 games last year, and was banged up in some he did play. He also suffered an injury in 2020 that he played through that clearly zapped him of his deep throws for a stretch. His smaller frame makes him a bigger injury risk. Murray’s rush YPC fell from 6.2 to 4.8 and he’ll clearly miss his alpha WR DeAndre Hopkins, who will miss the first six games due to a PED suspension in 2022. If I want a rushing QB, I’ll draft Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or Trey Lance late. Otherwise, I’d rather have “safe” guys like Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow over Murray.
– Joe Pisapia
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
ECR QB12 | ADP QB10
The departure of Davante Adams takes Aaron Rodgers out of the top 12 fantasy quarterback conversation. Over the last two seasons, Rodgers has finished as the QB8 and QB4 on the strength of the highest and the fifth-highest passing touchdown rates of his career. Those touchdown rates have not only been incredible by Rodgers’ standards but also in comparison to the rest of the NFL. He’s led the NFL in passing touchdown rate in back-to-back seasons (minimum 200 passing attempts).
These lofty numbers are difficult to repeat after losing arguably the best wide receiver in the league. In addition, Rodgers will have a tough time compensating with raw volume inside an offense that was last in the league in neutral script pace in 2021. While Rodgers can still be productive with the weapons around him, asking him to be anything more than a high-end QB2 at this point is probably too much.
– Derek Brown
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
ECR QB3 | ADP QB2
Best real-life quarterback? Of course. The clear-cut No. 2 option in fantasy? Not worth the price of admission.
Patrick Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes in 2021. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2). And that was with Tyreek Hill in the fold.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018 season. There’s real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill that is not being factored into his QB2 ADP and ECR ranking.
Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16). He’s being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone.
– Andrew Erickson
Russell Wilson (DEN)
ECR QB10 | ADP QB11
I see why the consensus is higher on Wilson than I am: He is now free of antiquated HC Pete Carroll, and the Broncos have a strong pass-catching corps with WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler; TEs Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich; and RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. But Wilson has averaged just 22.8 yards rushing per game over the past four years (since his age-30 season), so his fantasy floor is unexceptional, and he might not cook as much as expected given that HC Nathaniel Hackett oversaw a top-12 offense in pass attempts just once (2016 Jaguars) in his eight years as an offensive coordinator.
– Matthew Freedman
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
