Players can underperform due to any number of problems. Injuries, a poor offense and a lack of opportunity are just a few of the issues that can harm an athlete’s value. The number of red flags that we see in a particular player, or the severity of those flags, paint a picture as to whether that individual will live up to his draft cost. The guys with either abundant or very difficult roadblocks that stand between them and meeting their expectations are increasingly overvalued the earlier they are taken in drafts. While we don’t believe there are any players who should be avoided in drafts at any cost, all fantasy analysts have their own list of overvalued guys they’d prefer to wait on unless the right price presents itself. Our featured pundits shed some insight into the athletes they’re hesitant to select below.
Q1. Who is the most overvalued RB based on his current half-PPR ECR and why?
Damien Harris (NE): Consensus Rank – RB26
“It’s obvious that Damien Harris is destined for TD regression after banging in 15 touchdowns on 203 carries last season. He’s had only 23 receptions in the last two years, and I don’t know how safe his workload is. Bill Belichick typically doesn’t play rookie RBs much, yet Rhamondre Stevenson had 132 carries in his last 11 regular-season games of 2021. Belichick’s Patriots have been notoriously unpredictable in their deployment of RBs. James White, Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris could potentially complicate matters. I’m not touching Harris at his fifth-round ADP.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Josh Jacobs (LV): Consensus Rank – RB20
“Josh Jacobs being ranked inside the top 24 running backs is lunacy. Jacobs has never been an efficient receiver at the NFL level, so any thoughts of a three-down role with Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah and Kenyan Drake there are just daydreams. Jacobs ranked 37th in yards per touch and 36th in breakaway run rate. The Raiders are geared up to pass a ton and have told us everything we need to know about Jacobs, drafting Zamir White and adding pass-catching complementary backs in the offseason. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Javonte Williams (DEN): Consensus Rank – RB13
“Juggernaut Javonte Williams falls way outside of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft because it’s hard to envision him significantly surpassing his RB17 finish in half-point scoring from a season ago with a similar split workload expected alongside Melvin Gordon. His current ECR at RB13 is way too rich for my blood. Let’s not forget that Gordon finished right behind Williams as RB18 and played one fewer game. The veteran also said recently that he would refuse to lay down in the battle to be the Broncos’ RB1. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
David Montgomery (CHI): Consensus Rank – RB16
“David Montgomery is the most overvalued at RB16. The receiving upside is limited with a scrambling QB like Justin Fields under center. Backup Khalil Herbert showed that he can play, and we could see him take away some touches. Montgomery is really similar to a few RBs ranked below him, like J.K. Dobbins, Josh Jacobs, Antonio Gibson and Elijah Mitchell.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): Consensus Rank – RB18
” Zeke is being drafted as an RB2, but I would avoid him all together. He has been on the decline for a couple of years. Pair that with nagging injuries and competition from Tony Pollard, and I don’t see a way for Elliott to deliver anything near RB2 value in 2022. ”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Q2. Who is the most overvalued WR based on his current half-PPR ECR and why?
Chris Godwin (TB): Consensus Rank – WR24
“There isn’t nearly enough of a discount on Chris Godwin at WR24. Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15 of 2021 and reportedly didn’t have surgery until Jan. 3. Assuming he’ll need nine months to make a full recovery — and that’s a pretty optimistic timeline — Godwin won’t be back until early October. Upon his return, he’ll face target competition from Mike Evans, Russell Gage, Leonard Fournette and perhaps Rob Gronkowski. Yes, Godwin was very productive on a per-game basis last season, with 98-1,103-5 in 14 games. But that was with Tom Brady leading the NFL in pass attempts. A slower-than-expected recovery, reduced target share, reduced passing volume for the Buccaneers — there are multiple paths to disappointment here.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Diontae Johnson (PIT): Consensus Rank – WR13
“Diontae Johnson’s expert consensus rating of WR13 is super aggressive. It’s a ridiculous price to pay for a target hog like Johnson when he will almost surely see inefficient targets. Too often last season, I was drafting WRs in the third and fourth round who were projected to be target magnets with bad quarterbacks (Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore), and those ended up being poor fantasy selections. Johnson looks like he is of a similar ilk, so I am hesitant to get excited about him.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Amari Cooper (CLE): Consensus Rank – WR19
“Amari Cooper sitting inside the top 20 wide receivers is a spicy sauce best left for others to burn their fantasy palates with. Even if we’re dismissing quarterback concerns here, Cooper has seen his yards per route run decline in each of the last three seasons. At this draft price, I’m out on Cooper. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
D.K. Metcalf (SEA): Consensus Rank – WR17
“D.K. Metcalf is ranked too high at WR17. The Seahawks will be slow-placed and run-heavy without Russell Wilson at the helm. Metcalf will have to deal with erratic QB play from either Drew Lock or Geno Smith. WR is such a deep position, there’s no reason to go with this poor situation with so many other options on the board.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
Tyreek Hill (MIA): Consensus Rank – WR9
“Tyreek Hill (WR) – Going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive drop-off for Hill this season. Hill also has a moderately difficult schedule compared to other wide receivers. Not to mention that he had a down year from a statistical standpoint in 2021. I don’t see him finishing as a top-10 wide receiver in 2022.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Q3. Who is the most overvalued TE based on his current half-PPR ECR and why?
T.J. Hockenson (DET): Consensus Rank – TE6
“At TE6, T.J. Hockenson is being vastly overvalued. He’s mustered TE7 fantasy points per game finishes in back-to-back seasons. With the additions of D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams, the continued presence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a workhorse workload for D’Andre Swift, Hockenson will struggle to pay off this lofty ranking.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“T.J. Hockenson’s rank is a bit too rich at TE6. The Lions signed D.J. Chark and drafted Jameson Williams, adding more options to a passing game that already includes Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. Detroit figures to maintain their run-heavy style that they showed towards the end of last season, which caps Hockenson’s upside this year.”
– Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)
Mark Andrews (BAL): Consensus Rank – TE2
“Be aware that even if Mark Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1, it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career year. Andrews’ increase in route running was tied to the Ravens’ boosted pass-play rate (56%). From 2019 to 2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore’s increase in passing was out of necessity in 2021, I’d project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season. Considering Andrews’ second-round ADP is significantly higher than it was in 2021 (fifth round), he’s too expensive for me, with him likely regressing statistically as the Ravens get back to the run game.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Pat Freiermuth (PIT): Consensus Rank – TE11
“It’s fun to hear Steelers fans yell “MUUUUTH!” after Pat Freiermuth receptions. I think it will be less fun to have Freiermuth on your fantasy team this season. A big chunk of his 2021 value was derived from seven TDs on 60 catches. It’s great that dusty Ben Roethlisberger only had eyes for Freiermuth near the end zone, but will Mitch Trubisky and/or Kenny Pickett lock onto Freiermuth in the same way? Freiermuth averaged 8.3 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per target last year. Those aren’t numbers that scream “gotta have” to me.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Kyle Pitts (ATL): Consensus Rank – TE3
“Pitts is a very talented tight end in a wide receiver’s body. But with Matt Ryan no longer in Atlanta and Calvin Ridley suspended for this season, defenses can key on Pitts as Atlanta’s only viable receiving threat. Plus, do you want to rely on Marcus Mariota throwing to your tight end? There are other tight ends you can wait on who will be just as productive and can be drafted several rounds later. ”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
