11 Best Ball Players to Avoid (2022 Fantasy Football)

To succeed in best ball, you’ll have to be willing to take on more risk than you would in a traditional fantasy draft. That’s because your highest performers at each position will automatically be started for you each week. This creates a greater emphasis on taking potential breakouts. However, that high upside is often correlated with high risk. That increases the importance of avoiding players with capped upside or an enormous downside, especially in the early or middle portions of your draft. Here are several players our featured experts are steering clear of at their current draft cost in best ball.

Q1. Which one RB inside the top 30 in the RB best-ball expert consensus do you plan on avoiding in all your drafts relative to their price, and why?

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): Consensus best-ball rank – RB20
“Ezekiel Elliott’s main fantasy appeal is the touchdown opportunity he will see in a high-powered offense, coming off another season with poor rushing efficiency marks. And chances are he probably will beat his ADP because he is an iron man and doesn’t miss games. But even the greatest Zeke stans will admit the ride for him to finish as RB10-12 hardly will feel smooth when he’s hanging middling RB2 production most weeks. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy RB1 in just 35% of his games the past two seasons. I don’t think Elliott ends up being a true difference maker at this stage in his career, and the cost of drafting him over league-winning WRs in this range is something I can’t justify. Keep in mind that 13.5 PPR points per game equated to the WR29 last season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Antonio Gibson (WAS): Consensus best-ball rank – RB19
“Antonio Gibson is being drafted as a top-20 running back (RB19) and top-50 player overall (44th). That’s too rich for my blood. Gibson ranked 15th in opportunity share, fourth in red-zone touches and 20th in target share last season. All of these marks are in trouble this season with the return of J.D. McKissic and the arrival of Brian Robinson. Gibson’s hold on the top spot in this possible three-way committee is tenuous at best. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Derrick Henry (TEN): Consensus best-ball rank – RB4
“The RB market is efficiently priced these days, so I’m not aghast at any of the ADPs in the top 30. Still, I’m not going to have any of Derrick Henry at RB4. Henry skepticism has been a losing game for the last four years, although a foot injury short-circuited his electric start in 2021. We probably shouldn’t have been surprised that the seemingly indestructible Henry finally broke down. Since 2019, he’s averaged 23.1 carries a game. That sort of workload elevates the injury risk at a position where injury rates are high to begin with. Placing a big bet on a 28-year-old running back is bad business — particularly when it’s a running back who doesn’t catch many passes. While there’s no denying the well-established greatness of King Henry, the risk calculus here is unappealing.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Alvin Kamara (NO): Consensus best-ball rank – RB11
“I could move down the rankings and grab a player a little lower in the pecking order, but right now it’s Alvin Kamara for me, considering where he is currently going. With the off-field stuff still very much in question, I would rather wait and see how it sorts itself out and avoid the risk altogether. It’s about risk management early on for me in my drafts. If we get some clarity, then I reserve the right to change my opinion, as Kamara was getting more than five targets and 20-plus touches a game with Jameis Winston under center last year.”
– Matt Donnelly (Dynasty Vipers)

Saquon Barkley (NYG): Consensus best-ball rank – RB15
“I’m heavily avoiding Saquon Barkley in best ball. He did not look even close to the same in 2021 after returning from an ACL and MCL tear in 2020. Not only that, he struggled to stay on the field, dealing with more ankle injuries that date back to 2019. When he was on the field, he finished as RB38 in points per game, yet he is still being drafted as RB15. I’m out.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

David Montgomery (CHI): Consensus best-ball rank – RB17
“I’ll be avoiding David Montgomery and losing no sleep about it. The Bears project to be in bad game script frequently, have done little if anything to improve the offense, and with Montgomery potentially moving on after this season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Khalil Herbert see an uptick in snaps this year. Montgomery epitomizes the running back dead zone, and I’ll happily take other positions and players in this range.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)

Q2. What one WR inside the top 40 in the WR best ball expert consensus do you plan on avoiding in all your drafts relative to their price and why?

Deebo Samuel (SF): Consensus best-ball rank – WR7
“There’s no reason to believe that Deebo Samuel will be able to sustain that same elite production from last season. Natural regression is firmly in play considering that no WR earned more fantasy points above expectation than Samuel did in 2021. And that number doesn’t come as a surprise considering that nearly 30% of Samuel’s fantasy points came from rushing alone, and that Samuel scored three touchdowns of 75-plus yards. Samuel’s usage in the San Francisco offense seems destined to change with him voicing displeasure over his RB/WR hybrid deployment. That’s also not factoring in the rushing attempts and short-to-intermediate targets that Samuel could lose with mobile second-year QB Trey Lance becoming the starter, or increased target competition from a fully healthy George Kittle and out-of-the-doghouse Brandon Aiyuk. It’s forgotten that Samuel’s fantasy numbers would have dipped during the second half of the season had it not been for the rushing, with Aiyuk and Kittle both fully installed in the offense. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Potential new running QB in the fold to start the season. Trade demand out there and public knowledge. While it’s unlikely that Deebo Samuel will be traded, there is a possibility that he could hold out and miss some time. Currently, the 49ers’ leading receiver is coming off the board as the WR7 and going mid second round in drafts. While that may seem to be a value based on last season, the Trey Lance factor has me concerned twofold. One, we haven’t seen Lance be the man yet, and we don’t know what his chemistry with Samuel will look like in the passing game. Two, you have to take into account that Lance is going to take some touches away on the ground as well, either by design, or if Lance doesn’t feel comfortable with a read, he will likely pull it down and run.”
– Matt Donnelly (Dynasty Vipers)

Jaylen Waddle (WR): Consensus best-ball rank – WR13
“It’s strange that Jaylen Waddle’s ECR is still so high after the trade that brought Tyreek Hill to Miami. Waddle tied for 14th in PPR points per game among wide receivers last year. His ECR is WR13, so he’s being priced slightly above his 2021 level, even though he’s now going to be sharing targets with Hill, one of the best receivers in the game. I think Waddle’s price will come down, but unless it drops to WR20 or so (unlikely), I won’t be buying.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Amari Cooper (CLE): Consensus best-ball rank – WR16
“Drafting Amari Cooper as a top-20 wide receiver in best ball is a spicy meatball that’s better left on the plate for someone else to gobble up. Cooper’s efficiency marks have been declining for the last three seasons. Since 2019, his target-per-snap rate and yards per route run have dropped each season. Last year he finished 48th in targets per snap and 42nd in yards per route run, per PFF (minimum 50 targets). This trend screams stay away. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Michael Thomas (NO): Consensus best-ball rank – WR26
“I want nothing to do with Michael Thomas for various reasons. One, he is still not cleared to play after injuring his ankle in early 2020. Two, there have been rumors that he won’t even be on the Saints. Yes, a new landing spot could be really good, but it could also be very bad. Three, it is a much more crowded WR room with rookie Chris Olave and new addition Jarvis Landry. I still think Thomas will be the No. 1 in New Orleans if he plays, but that doesn’t help him. There is just too much uncertainty with Thomas for me to want to draft him at WR25.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Terry McLaurin (WAS): Consensus best-ball rank – WR19
“I worry about Terry McLaurin in this Washington offense. While in previous seasons, he’s gotten by due to a very high target-share percentage, the team has slightly more weapons around him this year and has also attached itself to the erratic play of QB Carson Wentz. I struggle to see McLaurin outplaying his ADP and would rather take shots at players like Mike Williams, Michael Pittman and D.J. Moore in this range. ”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)

Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.

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