Michael Waterloo | Wed, Jun 8th 2022, 12:21pm EDT

10 Burning Questions: Walker Buehler, David Bednar, Pete Alonso (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Every week, I’ll address 10 burning questions that I’m looking either for answers to during the week or questions that may help fantasy managers navigate the week-to-week grind of their team.

This week, I opened up the mailbag on Twitter to incorporate some reader questions.

What Player Would You Rank Higher/Lower Than His ECR on FantasyPros?

Thanks for the question, Kelly (@thewonkypenguin).

There are a few players I’m higher and lower on than their ECR. I’ll give three for each with brief reasoning.

Lower on:
Julio Urias (SP – LAD): ECR 32
There’s no denying the talent of Julio Urias, but he’s just not generating the strikeouts that we hoped he would this year (down to 19.6 from 26.2 percent last year), and having him 32nd overall still is a little high for me. He’s more around 50-60 for me.

Tyler O’Neill (OF – STL): ECR 82
Maybe Tyler O’Neill will repeat his 2021 path when he went on a tear after an IL stint. He’s back from the IL now but has a longer track record of being a lousy player than a good player.

Austin Meadows (OF – DET): ECR 157
I have as many home runs as Austin Meadows does this year, and it took me 120 fewer plate appearances to reach the mark.

Higher On:
Shane McClanahan (SP – TBR): ECR 57
What else do we need to see from Shane McClanahan? He’s a bonafide ace and is a top 20 player overall.

Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA): ECR 66
Speaking of nothing left to prove, Julio Rodriguez is doing everything we hoped for and more after a weird stretch of called third strikes outside the zone to start the season. Drafting today, he’d be a fringe first-round pick. An ECR of 66 makes no sense.

Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT): ECR 121
We can’t judge a player just on his Statcast page, but we can’t ignore the quality of contact Ke’Bryan Hayes is making, either. We are finally seeing them turn into home runs. At the position, Hayes should be closer to a top-100 player.

Thoughts on David Bednar (RP – PIT)?

Thanks for the question, Matt (@VeryEasy13).

He’s good. But he’s not diamond level in “MLB The Show” good. The numbers are everything you want from a closer, and he utilizes three pitches with reasonable Whiff rates on them.

The bad thing is that he pitches for the Pirates – who are playing better ball but are still the Pirates – and could be a trade candidate at the deadline.

For now, he’s a top-15 closer moving forward.

What’s Up With Walker Buehler (SP – LAD)?

Thanks for the question, Will (@WillMadeGood).

I want to first shout out John (@MLBMovingAvg) for fading Walker Buehler all offseason. He had concerns entering the season around his fastball, and he’s been spot-on.

Buehler’s fastball has a .377 average against (.334 xBA) with a .638 SLG (.674 xSLG) and its spin is down more than 200 RPMs. What’s more, the shape is off on it, and it’s resulting in the Whiff rate dropping from 20.3 last year to 12.6 this year on the offering.

What’s more, of the seven home runs given up by Buehler this year, five have come off the fastball – a pitch that he throws 33.1 percent of the time.

The pitch is living in the heart of the zone this year, which is leading it to be crushed. He’s too good to be this bad, but it’s a fastball problem that Buehler has right now.

Who are Some Players Rostered in 50 Percent of Leagues or Fewer I Should Target?

Here are 10 hitters and pitchers that you should add to your watchlist who are available in 21-50 percent of leagues (using Yahoo rostership numbers):

Hitters:

Pitchers:

What About 20 Percent?

Like above, here are 10 hitters and pitchers rostered in 20 percent of Yahoo leagues or fewer who should be on your deep-league radar:

Hitters:

Pitchers:

Who Do You Prefer In Dynasty: Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA) or Fernando Tatis (SS, OF – SDP)?

Thanks for the question, Larry (@LarryCardoso3).

This is a great question, Larry. Last week, I posted my top-10 dynasty players, and I had Rodriguez second behind Juan Soto and Tatis fourth overall, with Ronald Acuna Jr. slotted in between the two phenoms.

What have you done for me lately? Perhaps. But for me, it’s the injury concerns that we have with Tatis and his shoulder. When healthy, Tatis is the best player in baseball and having him fourth overall is still really good, but I have fewer concerns with the other players.

I’ve been high on Rodriguez, and when you hear the best comp being Soto mixed with Tatis and then actually seeing it on display, it’s hard not to be all-in on him.

Who Do You Prefer in Redraft: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, DH – TOR) or Pete Alonso (1B, DH – MYM)?

Thanks for the other question, Larry (@LarryCardoso3).

I’m assuming you know I’m a Blue Jays fan, so I think you’re trying to set me up. That said, it’s close for me, but I’m still going to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. We’re starting to see him heat up again, and both have an insanely similar profile.

The difference for me is that Guerrero has the better supporting cast in his favor that should help him out with the counting stats.

What’s the Fantasy Fallout from Joe Maddon Getting Canned?

Well, that escalated quickly in Anaheim. Or Los Angeles. Or Orange County. Or wherever the Halos waste Mike Trout‘s prime.

With Joe Maddon out, what changes, if anything? The initial thoughts I have are really two-fold for fantasy.

The first is if Shohei Ohtani‘s usage will change at all. Will the Angels look to throw him more on a regular schedule, as we see with most five-man rotations? If so, will that cause him to have more days off offensively? He’s the No. 1 player to roster in daily leagues, so it’s something to monitor closely.

The other is, what happens with Jo Adell? Trout had a groin injury Tuesday night, but the Angels are downplaying it. So he could get run there if Trout is forced to have an IL stint.

We’ll give Maddon credit for his insistence to play Taylor Ward every day early in the season, as he’s had a breakout campaign. But Maddon didn’t seem too keen on playing Adell or developing him. Under new management, maybe he gets the chance to play regularly now.

Where? Brandon Marsh and all the Angels have been sliding off late, so we could see Adell get more time filling in for him in the outfield. I’d stash him if he’s available.

Any Interesting Name You’re Excited About?

There’s one player I just can’t quit, and his name is Alex Kirilloff. With Luis Arraez suffering an injury Tuesday night, it might not be long until we see Kirilloff and his hopefully healthy wrist back in the big leagues.

Since returning from injury, Kirilloff has a .351/.462/.588 slash with six home runs, 21 runs, and 20 RBIs in 117 plate appearances. He has legit top-75 potential rest of the season, and yes, I will die on this hill. Pick him up.

Is Marcus Semien (2B, SS – TEX) Back?

You know, Marcus Semien does, indeed, look like he’s turning the corner. Don’t believe me? Here were his numbers before and after his seven-hit, three-homer, two-steal day on Tuesday:

Yeah, like John Wick, I think he’s back.

While he was pressing early with a high Chase rate, we’ve seen it dip down over the last few weeks. And we’ve seen the results follow. The Hard Hit% has also climbed month-over-month, from 23.9 to 32.6 to 38.5. Suddenly, Semien looks like the player we hoped he’d be when we drafted him.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.

Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.

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