Every Tuesday, I’ll address 10 burning questions that I’m looking either for answers to during the week or questions that may help fantasy managers navigate the week-to-week grind of their team.
Here are the latest burning questions about fantasy baseball.
Who has the best pitch in baseball?
As always, this is a subjective question. There’s no true answer to this, but what I tend to look at for domination with pitches is what their CSW percentage is.
CSW stands for, of course, called strikes plus whiffs or swinging strikes.
The metric became more mainstream a few years back when Alex Fast presented his findings around it. While other databases have picked it up and tracked it, I go to Pitcherlist for my CSW findings.
You can see the overall leaders (I set the parameters at 25 innings since we are a quarter through the season), and Shane McClanahan has the best overall CSW at 36.3 percent.
But what about individual pitches?
Four seamers: Keegan Akin (40.3 CSW%)
Sinker: Michael King (46 CSW%)
Cutter: Yu Darvish (38.7 CSW%)
Splitter: Kevin Gausman (33.3 CSW %)
Changeup: Shane McClanahan (39.9 CSW%)
Slider: Shohei Ohtani (45.5 CSW%)
Curveball: Aaron Nola (41 CSW%)
It’s hard to argue against Ohtani’s slider or McClanahan’s changeup, but give me Gausman’s splitter as the best pitch in the league.
Does anyone have any numbers that make you say ‘holy sh*t’?
A few players have numbers that make me say that phrase. The first would be Jose Berrios.
Now, some have considered him an ace before, but he really, really isn’t. He’s always been good and consistently inconsistent. But this year, the numbers are ugly. His 5.62 ERA is bad enough, but did you know that his xERA is 7.16?
That number is the worst among qualified pitchers by far.
Among qualified pitchers, Martin Perez is the only one who has not allowed a home run this season. He’s doing that while holding the opposition to a .226 xBA.
On the flip side, Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 16 home runs this season. In 2021, he allowed 15.
Who are your top 10 players for dynasty leagues?
This is a question I asked myself after I received an interesting trade offer in an industry dynasty league.
It’s the first year of the 20-team league, and I was offered his Luis Robert for my Julio Rodriguez.
I love Robert. I have many, many bets on him to win MVP this year. I probably would have taken that deal a few months ago, but I find it hard moving Rodriguez, and I think that means that he’s overtaken Robert in my dynasty rankings.
Chris Clegg and I are cooking something up for you dynasty players out there, but until that drops, here are my top 10 dynasty players from 10-1.
8. Luis Robert (OF – CWS)
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR)
5. Shohei Ohtani (DH, SP – LAA)
4. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS – SD)
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)
2. Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA)
Who are Some Players Rostered in 50 Percent of Leagues or Fewer I Should Target?
Here are 10 hitters and pitchers who you should add to your watchlist who are available in 21 to 50 percent of leagues (using Yahoo rostership numbers).
Hitters:
Christopher Morel (2B, 3B, OF – CHC)
Pitchers:
What About 20 Percent?
Like above, here are 10 hitters and pitchers rostered in 20 percent of Yahoo leagues or fewer who should be on your deep-league radar.
Hitters:
Brendan Donovan (2B, SS, OF – STL)
Pitchers:
What can you tell me about Aaron Ashby?
I can tell you that I’m a fan, and it all started when I was helping my pal Jordan White with his fantastic piece on Ashby for Baseball Prospectus. I knew about Ashby, of course, but Jordan opened my eyes to just how damn good he was.
With the injuries to Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff, Ashby got his call to the rotation and showed the hell out.
Ashby generated 21 Whiffs for a 39 CSW% as he allowed just one earned run on 100 pitches over six innings while striking out 12 and walking just two Cubs.
The O/U for strikeouts was set at 4.5, and I never hit an Over as hard as I hit that one.
The control was the biggest thing to keep an eye on for Ashby, and he wasn’t over-reliant on one pitch, as he threw 31 changeups (42 CSW%) and 31 sinkers (32 CSW%) while sprinkling in some sliders (36 CSW%) and curves (54 CSW%) for good measure.
To answer Jordan’s question – yes. Aaron Ashby is the next Brewers pitching success story.
Which prospects have been standing out?
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KCR)
.478/.500/1.174, 2 2B, 3B, 4 HR
Kyle Manzardo (1B – TB)
.471/.524/1.294 4 HR
Grayson Rodriguez (SP – BAL)
7 IP, 10 K, 2 H, 0 BB
Ezequiel Tovar (SS – COL)
.417/.533/.792, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 4 SB
Connor Jones (SP – SEA)
7 IP, 0 H, 8 K, 3 BB
Can expected stats mislead us?
They really, really can. They are valuable in the right context, but we need to be careful when looking at the expected stats leaderboards.
For instance, Manny Machado is red hot this season and is the frontrunner for MVP in the National League. But you could say that he’s overachieved since the difference between his batting average and xBA is the sixth-highest in baseball with a 0.055 positive mark.
But the thing is, that’s different than someone like Luis Gonzalez, whose xBA is .247 – way off from his actual .323 average.
For Machado, even if you say he’s overperforming, his xBA is .298, which is still really damn good.
Expected stats can give us the canvas, but it’s up to us to paint the picture accurately with each player.
Who are you stashing?
Whether it’s waiting for a call-up or an injured player, here are a few guys I’m stashing on my teams in 12-team leagues and deeper.
- Vinny Pasquantino (1B – KCR): Yet another reference in this piece. He’s more than ready to get a shot, at least.
- Mike Soroka (SP – ATL): Expectations should be tempered after back-to-back Achilles injuries, but he has top 50 upside at the position.
- Chris Sale (SP – BOS): Of the injured veteran arms, I think I have more faith in him than I do the others to contribute this year.
- Royce Lewis (SS – MIN): A knee bruise can linger, but being on the injured list actually makes it easier to stash him.
How have offenses been?
Over the last two weeks, here are some offensive tidbits:
- Four teams have a sub-.285 wOBA and sub-.225 batting average: Cleveland, Philadelphia, Detroit, and the New York Yankees.
- Over the same period, the Boston Red Sox scored 102 runs and had 27 home runs to lead baseball. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres had five home runs, and the Tigers scored 29 runs. Both numbers are the worst in baseball.
- For as good as their offense is, Atlanta has a league-high 26.7 strikeout rate over the last two weeks, while the Nationals lead baseball with a 17 percent mark.
- Cleveland still isn’t striking out a ton, as they’ve emphasized putting the ball in play. But over the last two weeks, they have just eight home runs and an 81 team wRC+
- Sure, the Padres have the fewest amount of home runs in the last two weeks, but the White Sox accounted for just 12 Barrels, which is the worst mark in the league. The Red Sox had 50, 16 ahead of the second-most (Baltimore).
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
