Each and every week, I’ll address 10 burning questions that I’m looking either for answers to during the week or questions that may help fantasy managers navigate the week-to-week grind of their team.
For this week, I opened up the mailbag on Twitter (@MichaelWaterloo to include your question) to incorporate some reader questions.
Is There a Single A’s Player Worth Rostering in a 12-team League?
Thanks for the question, Sean (@SeanyDooWop).
There are for sure, Sean. Are there many? Well, no. But there are some.
The obvious one is Frankie Montas, at least for as long as he’s with Oakland. Montas ranks No. 126 on the Razzball player rater, making him a 10th-round value. He’s not the highest-ranked Oakland player, though, as Paul Blackburn is No. 83.
While there are some exciting young catchers making their debuts, I still think that Sean Murphy (No. 289) is worth rostering for the second half.
Players like Seth Brown, Dany Jimenez and Christian Bethancourt are more streaming options for me in 12-team leagues, but Ramon Laureano, who got a late start to the season and isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, should still be rostered for his power-speed ability.
Would You Trade Joey Votto for Oneil Cruz?
Thanks for the question, Mark (@mark_quis).
I hope that Oneil Cruz laughs in the face of the Pirates brass when they offer him a contract extension — under market value, of course — in the next two to three years. The way they are keeping him down while promoting players who sound like they are cosplaying as Jason Bay is asinine.
But the good news is it sounds like the Pirates could promote Cruz as early as this upcoming weekend. If the cost of getting him is Votto — who I am a fan of — and you have a suitable 1B option to fill the void, I’d make this trade for upside alone.
What’s the One Hitter and Pitcher Stat You’d Use to Evaluate if You Could Only Pick One?
Thanks for the question, Taylor (@TCasesLoaded).
Asking the tough questions here. Taylor’s question had more context — adding that it would be the only stat I could use for a hitter and pitcher for the rest of my time playing fantasy — and it’s a good question.
The thing is, I don’t think there is one that captures everything we need, but we will play along.
For pitchers, what I look for when evaluating players is pitch selection, quality of the pitch, location, ability to miss bats, velocity, K/BB ratio and the volume they provide. The most valuable thing that a pitcher can provide is strikeouts, so I’m going to go with CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiff Rate) on the pitching side slightly over the K/BB ratio.
Since Alex Fast brought the stat to the mainstream a few years ago, it’s been my go-to stat when looking at pitchers. Now, if I had a pitching+ model as Eno Sarris has at The Athletic, I’d lean toward that. But for now, it’s CSW%.
On the hitting side, the best results happen when you hit the ball hard. Let’s not get too cute here. I’m looking at Barrel%. I want someone who is not only making hard contact consistently but doing so within the ideal launch angle. When you look at the Barrel leaderboards, you’re seeing the who’s who of fantasy among the leaders.
Who are Some Players Rostered in 50% of Leagues or Fewer I Should Target?
Here are 10 hitters and pitchers who you should add to your watchlist who are available in 21-50% of leagues (using Yahoo rostership numbers).
Hitters:
- Manuel Margot (OF – TB)
- Jonah Heim (C – TEX)
- Christian Walker (1B – ARI)
- Oneil Cruz (SS – PIT)
- Luke Voit (1B – SD)
Pitchers:
- Aaron Ashby (SP,RP – MIL)
- Josiah Gray (SP – WAS)
- Jason Adam (RP – TB)
- Jon Gray (SP – TEX)
- Roansy Contreras (SP – PIT)
What About 20%?
Like above, here are 10 hitters and pitchers rostered in 20% of Yahoo leagues or fewer who should be on your deep-league radar.
Hitters:
- Jon Berti (SS,3B,OF – MIA)
- Bryson Stott (2B,SS – PHI)
- Alex Kirilloff (1B,OF – MIN)
- Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KC)
- Luis Garcia (2B,SS – WAS)
Pitchers:
- Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN)
- Mike Soroka (SP – ATL)
- Ross Stripling (SP,RP – TOR)
- Luis Patino (SP – TB)
- Alex Faedo (SP – DET)
Who Are Some Good Stash Candidates Likely to Jump in Value Due to Real-life Trades?
Thanks for the question, Will (@WillMadeGood)
I mentioned him earlier, but Montas seems like the best bet to get moved. If he does, his value should go through the roof. I also think we should look at Pittsburgh with David Bednar. The Pirates might not be terrible next year, but they still won’t be good. There’s no reason to really invest in a reliever if you’re a bad team, so it makes sense that they’d look to move him at the deadline. If they did, Chris Stratton and/or Wil Crowe would be the next man up. Given the age difference and service time, I expect it to be Stratton.
I’d also be looking at the Reds to move some players — particularly Luis Castillo and maybe Tyler Mahle. We already know that they have young guns like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but it could also allow Graham Ashcraft, who has been impressive so far, to remain in the rotation.
The Cubs and the Red Sox, who both really have no excuses not to extend their players, could end up shipping Xander Bogaerts and Willson Contreras if they fall out of contention and decide they won’t re-sign them. If that’s the case, I hope the Red Sox trade Bogaerts to the Angels in a Jo Adell package so that Adell can actually play.
Who Are Some Second-Half Outfield Candidates to Pick Up?
Thanks for the other question, Anthony (@ChinskiTweets).
Let’s start with Kirilloff, who should get the call any day now. He’s absolutely tearing up AAA, and there’s really no reason for the Twins not to give him the call and play him every day.
I mentioned Adell last week, but he’s someone I’m trying to grab in hopes that he finds his way to regular playing time in Anaheim or somewhere else.
Keeping on the young theme, Riley Greene is someone who I’m hoping hits the ground running in Detroit. The young guys haven’t had the best results so far for the Tigers, but Greene is the No. 2 prospect in baseball for a reason.
Outside of the young guys, I’m looking at Jesse Winker to turn things around soon. He has the fourth-highest gap in wOBA and xwOBA (-0.071) in baseball and is someone I’m looking to have a big second half. Lourdes Gurriel is another, as we’ve seen this time and time again from him where he struggles for the first couple of months and then comes out smoking as the summer rolls on.
Who Are Some Closers to Stash?
Thanks for the ideas, John (@JDBuffone).
If you haven’t grabbed Seranthony Dominguez yet, you may be late to the party. He looks like the frontrunner in Philly for save opportunities with Corey Knebel injured.
I’m also a big Andres Munoz fan. I wrote about him in the preseason as “this year’s Emmanuel Clase.” He has the best pure swing-and-miss stuff in the Seattle bullpen, and I think if they ever decide to go with just one closer, he’s the man for the job.
Clay Holmes probably doesn’t qualify, right? I mean, I guess he would if people somehow think Aroldis Chapman gets his job back.
How about Nate Pearson or Chris Sale? Both are coming back from injuries. Both have stuff that can play up in the ninth inning. Boston has had issues in the bullpen all year, and I trust Jordan Romano in Toronto, but Pearson in the ninth could be interesting if something were to go wrong there.
What’s Wrong with Adley Rutschman?
You know, overreactions are fun. We’re seeing it right now with Rutschman, who is off to a .183/.256/.268 start to his big-league career. He has yet to record an RBI or a home run, so people, of course, are wondering what’s up with that?
Well, he’s a catcher and a rookie catcher at that. It’s the position that takes the longest for someone to transition to big-league success given that they have to, you know, call the games and whatnot.
Looking at his metrics, he’s hitting the ball hard (90.4 average exit velocity) and has a 43.4 HardHit%, which we love to see. The strikeout rate is tolerable, and his xSLG is .341 compared to his .268 actual mark.
What’s encouraging to me is that he has a below-average chase rate, and while he’s pulling the ball more than 50% of the time, he’s hitting line drives 32.1% of the time.
The batted-ball data looks good, and if you are somehow able to buy Rutschman from a panicked manager, I’d do it.
Any Fun Stats You’ve Seen?
I love finding fun stats. Not all of them mean something, but they are fun to look at regardless.
Did you know that Bobby Witt Jr. has a faster home plate to first base sprint speed than Trea Turner? What’s more, Witt has the fastest sprint speed in baseball at 30.4 feet per second.
Did you know that while Aaron Judge leads all players with 24 home runs, his xHR is actually 27? What a season from the MVP.
Did you know that while Brendan Rodgers has been coming on, his xHR is actually 2.9 compared to his actual six home runs?
Did you know that Tyler Mahle has a 3.69 FIP compared to his 5.07 ERA? The gap is second only to Patrick Corbin’s, whose numbers are bad no matter what.
Did you know that not only is Julio Urias not striking batters out like we’d hoped he would, but he has a 4.57 FIP compared to his 2.80 ERA?
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
