To fantasy football owners who drafted Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) last year, I truly am sorry for your loss. 850 yards and four total TDs from your first or second-round selection was obviously not what you envisioned when you picked him. But if you’re not too scorned to re-draft him, you should strongly consider doing so. Here’s why:
Saquon’s 2020 season was abruptly ended by his ACL tear in Week 2. He came back as expected in time for Week 1 of 2021, and he followed the trend that most RBs have shown us — a major drop in production the first year back. You’re probably saying “What about Adrian Peterson (RB – FA)?!” To that, there is no real counter-argument. But, Peterson was an outlier, and injury analytics are indisputably clear on that fact.
The SportsMedAnalytics algorithm uses an AI-driven predictive model based on NFL injuries and stats from the past ~20 years and shows us that ACL tears more drastically affect the short-term performance of RBs than any other position. Declines of even 50% or more of fantasy value have been more frequent than you would probably have guessed for this position. So why invest in Saquon now?
That question is best answered by the variables that predict a bounce back to pre-injury productivity levels in the second year after the tear.
- Age < 25 at the time of injury. Saquon was 23.
- High draft slot. No. 2 overall? Yup, Saquon qualifies.
- Elite athletic metrics, weighted towards the tests of maximum explosiveness. Saquon’s 4.40-second 40-yard dash hit the 95th percentile and his 41.0-inch vertical jump was 98th. That’s actually even better than Adrian Peterson, who hit the 95th and 91st percentiles, respectively.
Still not convinced that 2021 was just an outlier year for Barkley? Check out these results from the “Rushing Yards Over Expected” model built by Tej Seth at PFF (Twitter: @tejfbanalytics). Seth’s model basically breaks rushing production into 2 factors:
- Expected Yards – or in other words, how effective the team around the ball carrier is in creating running room.
- Yards over Expected – or in other words, how effective the ball carrier is in creating production himself.
In 2021, Barkley’s “Expected Yards” ranked fourth-lowest among players with over 150 carries, and his own contribution, a.k.a. “Yards Over Expected,” was dead last in the group. That’s a HUGE drop-off from the rest of Saquon’s time in the league. From 2018 to 2020, his “Expected Yards” was right around league average, but his “Yards Over Expected” was second-highest among all RBs.
This leads us to two key conclusions. First, Barkley was clearly not himself last season. Rushing stats and injury analytics both support that statement. Second, he doesn’t need a star offensive line in order to be effective. When he was putting up 1,500 to 2,000 total yards in his first two NFL seasons, his line was playing at a league-average level. 2021 was the perfect storm of his early recovery process coinciding with particularly awful play from the offense around him. So, is 2022 going to be different?
From the injury analytics side, we’d strongly expect that answer to be “Yes,” as discussed above. Regarding the supporting cast, the Giants just drafted a mountain-sized human in Evan Neal (OL – NYG) at tackle, in addition to third-round pick Joshua Ezeudu (OL – NYG) at guard. We need to look no further than Tristan Wirfs (OL – TB) in Tampa, Quenton Nelson (OL – IND) in Indy and Zack Martin (OL – DAL) in Dallas to see what a drastic difference adding a talented rookie can make for the running game. New Giants head coach Brian Daboll also looks like an upgrade over Joe Judge (mostly because truthfully, who wouldn’t be?). Daboll is talking about using Saquon more as a receiver and is reportedly overhauling the entire offensive scheme of the former regime. Both changes bode well for Barkley.
Taking all of this together, it’s hard to imagine 2022 NOT being a major comeback year for Saquon. FantasyPros has him ranked at RB20, currently going in the middle of the fourth round of drafts. If he falls to me there, I’ll be thinking for less than five seconds about that pick before clicking “Draft” and high-fiving. More likely, I’ll be “reaching” — if you can even call it that — for Barkley in round two or three. He’s just too good to let one year that was muddled by a major injury and weak supporting cast totally tank our belief in the talent.
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