This week will mark the halfway point of the USFL’s 10-game regular season. So far, the DFS picks have been stellar. Additionally, it’s becoming increasingly clear who the top players in the league are and which teams are among the cream of the crop. As a result, the following picks are whittled down a little further from last week’s collection.
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Quarterbacks
Kyle Sloter is the top dog at quarterback in the USFL. According to FOX Sports, he leads the league in passing yards per game (267.8), attempts per game (39.0), and is tied for second in passing touchdowns (five). Sloter also might be progressing through his many injuries and on the precipice of running more. It wasn't an exceptional play, but Sloter did scramble for seven yards on a scamper last week. Regardless, it's his arm that gamers should be excited about. He's the no-brainer top quarterback pick until further notice.
Case Cookus is an enticing option for gamers multi entering GPPs. Last week, in his first start of the year, he completed 73.3% of his passes, chucking it for 190 yards, two scores, and one interception. He also rushed for 35 yards on four attempts. The primary case for using Cookus is the pass-happy nature of the Stars' offense. They pass early and often.
Early down pass rates in the first four weeks of the USFL:
1) PHI 70%
2) BHAM 54%
3) TB 52%
4) NO 50%
5) PIT 48%
6) HOU 46%
7) MICH 40%
8) NJ 38%- Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) May 10, 2022
They don't take their foot off the accelerator after early downs, either. According to Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus, Philadelphia's 72.7% passing rate in neutral game scripts has been 14.5% higher than the second-highest mark. It would be foolish to ignore Philadelphia's pass-happy tendencies.
Running Backs
Jordan Ellis joins Sloter as a USFL leader, leading the league in rushing yards (347) and attempts per game (20.8). Beyond his yeoman workload as a runner, Ellis had a 66% route participation rate and six targets in Week 4, per Hartitz. After amassing only two receptions for one yard through the first three weeks, Ellis's receiving work was a welcome sight. It might prove to be an outlier, but it's a development worth noting with former backfield mate T.J. Logan jettisoned off the Breakers.
Unfortunately, Mark Thompson slipped to second in the USFL in rushing yards (320) after a stinker in Week 4. Still, he was fed the ball 14 times, and a matchup with the Breakers didn't do him any favors. New Orleans has earned the highest run defense grade at Pro Football Focus. Sadly, the sledding won't be much easier this week against Pro Football Focus's second-highest graded defense. Nonetheless, Thompson had been a reliable ball-carrier before last week, rushing for more than 70 yards in the first three games and spiking for 157 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in Week 3.
C.J. Marable is a bit riskier option than Ellis and Thompson after the Stallions signed Bo Scarbrough this week. Still, he has been trending in the right direction with a plus matchup on tap, as Cody Main of Establish The Run pointed out on Twitter.
CJ Marable eruption spot incoming
- rush share has increased each week this szn (33.3% > 48.5% > 51.6% > 54.8%)
- faces Philly run defense coughing up 5.5 YPC to oppposing RB
- BHAM with a slate high 21.5-point implied team total as 6.5-point *home* favswheels up king
- Cody Main (@cmain7) May 12, 2022
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
For the third straight section, the Breakers have a league leader. Sal Cannella leads the USFL in receiving yards (215) by the narrowest margin over Victor Bolden Jr. (214) and teammate Jonathan Adams Jr. (213). All three players are featured prominently on the table.
Cannella and Adams are the top stacking options with Sloter. According to Dwaine McFarland's utilization information, Adams and Cannella have been neck and neck in route participation (89% versus 88%). Adams has been used a little deeper downfield, while Cannella has still netted a hearty 11.3-yard average depth of target (ADOT).
Meanwhile, Bolden has been a target hog for the Stallions. His season low for targets was eight in Week 1. However, he's had at least 10 targets and five receptions in the previous three weeks. Bolden's volume has been elite, and DraftKings' full-point point-per-reception (PPR) scoring enhances the wideout's value.
Sticking to the theme of target hogs, Tre Walker had an unbelievable 17 targets in Week 4. Walker's insane target volume was especially noteworthy because Kyle Lauletta reclaimed the starting quarterback job from since-waived Josh Love. Lauletta's tunnel vision for Walker makes the receiver a steal at $4,000.
Finally, Diondre Overton is the best blend of usage and value from the Stars' receiving corps. He has had a 90% route participation rate, and his shallow depth of target (7.1 ADOT) has been a stylistic match for this week's matchup with the Stallions. Birmingham has been in a class of their own pressuring quarterbacks (more on that to come). Therefore, Overton should theoretically be peppered with mid-range targets to keep Cookus upright.
Defense and Special Teams
According to Caesars Sportsbook, the Breakers are 2.0-point favorites, the Stallions are 6.5-point favorites, and the Gamblers are 5.5-point favorites. While it's debatable if the spreads are good for those games, all three teams are worthy favorites. Of course, that's a good starting point for picking a defense.
The Stallions might pile up points in bunches on defense against Philadelphia's pass-happy offense. Birmingham has earned Pro Football Focus's highest pass-rushing grade, pressuring enemy signal-callers at an eye-popping 48% rate, per Hartitz. The Gamblers (35.6%) and Breakers (34.2%) are the two next-closest teams and join the Stallions as the suggested defenses in this section.
USFL Week 5 Betting Odds, Previews, Picks
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.