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Let’s take a look at players Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson are avoiding based on their Underdog ADP.
Best Ball Draft Advice: Players the Experts are Avoiding
Kyler Murray (ARI)
QB8, -2 vs. Best Ball ADP
Last season was another tale of two halves for Kyler Murray. In Weeks 1-8, with DeAndre Hopkins healthy, he was on fire as the QB6 completing 72.6% of his passes with 8.8 yards per attempt while averaging 284.5 passing yards per game. After Week 9, with Hopkins banged up and in and out of the lineup, Murray was the QB16 with a 65.3% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 251.8 passing yards per game. Fast forward to this season, and Hopkins is now slated to miss the first six games of the season. The trade to acquire Marquise Brown‘s services and drafting Trey McBride will help, but it’s understandable to tread carefully with Kyler Murray exposure this season.
– Derek Brown
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
QB17, -4 vs. Best Ball ADP
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings/draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel. I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes. 49ers’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa’s aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021. Jimmy G’s most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game – good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season. So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won’t be pulling the trigger on him in 1QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In the Dolphins quarterback’s four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18, and QB16.
– Andrew Erickson
2022 Consensus Best Ball Rankings
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