Statcast Review: Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, Tony Gonsolin (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

 
Hard hit percentage is one of the most self-explanatory, digestible statistics in sabermetrics. As the name implies, it is the percentage of times a batter hits the ball “hard.” How hard? For the sake of this column, at least 95 mph.

When trying to gauge the success rate of a batter or pitcher, it is usually helpful and essential to dive deeper than the surface numbers, i.e., a batting average can be inflated by a series of weaker hits in a small sample size. Hard hit percentage is that deeper dive, and it is the number behind the number. As usual, we will look at both sides of the game to identify the players who supply or limit hard hits regularly.

Hard Hit Percentage: Batters

Below are two tables for Hard Hit Percentage by batters with columns for Batted-Ball Event (BBE) and the number of hits with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. The first table is sorted from high to low – where the higher number is better – while the second is sorted from low-to-high. The tables included only qualified hitters.

Sorted High-to-Low

Player	BBE	95 MPH+	HH %
Aaron Judge	92	61	66.3
Yordan Alvarez	92	56	60.9
Willson Contreras	84	50	59.5
Tommy Pham	89	50	56.2
Jose Abreu	104	58	55.8
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	105	58	55.2
Giancarlo Stanton	96	53	55.2
Christian Yelich	98	53	54.1
Patrick Wisdom	63	34	54
Adolis Garcia	89	48	53.9
Mike Trout	84	45	53.6
Manny Machado	105	56	53.3
Jean Segura	94	50	53.2
Matt Chapman	89	47	52.8
Trea Turner	112	58	51.8
Bryce Harper	101	52	51.5
Austin Riley	100	51	51
Rafael Devers	124	63	50.8
Franmil Reyes	65	33	50.8
Ke’Bryan Hayes	93	46	49.5

 

Sorted Low-to-High

Player	BBE	95 MPH+	HH %
Tony Kemp	111	14	12.6
Dylan Carlson	111	22	19.8
Nicky Lopez	90	20	22.2
Myles Straw	103	23	22.3
Ozzie Albies	124	29	23.4
Marcus Semien	110	28	25.5
Enrique Hernandez	108	28	25.9
Harrison Bader	97	27	27.8
Brandon Crawford	95	28	29.5
Abraham Toro	98	29	29.6
Frank Schwindel	90	27	30
Starling Marte	113	34	30.1
Connor Joe	106	32	30.2
Kolten Wong	96	29	30.2
Jeff McNeil	109	34	31.2
Eduardo Escobar	93	29	31.2
Jurickson Profar	99	31	31.3
Jesse Winker	114	36	31.6
Trent Grisham	82	26	31.7
J.P. Crawford	103	33	32

Notes

• At the time of this writing, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez lead the league in home runs, respectively. Surprise, surprise, they also lead the league in hard-hit percentage. The correlation is obvious, but it is inspiring that Judge and Alvarez are striking the ball well even when it doesn’t clear the fences. An average of more than three-out-of-every-five batted balls leaves the bat at a speed of at least 95 mph.
• Since we started by connecting hard hits to home runs, we’ll continue along that theme with two players who aren’t on the list. The current top-five — really, six because three players are tied — in home runs include Byron Buxton and Anthony Rizzo, and neither is on the list. Much of their current value is being driven by the long ball, but their absence also highlights how impressive the aforementioned Judge and Alvarez have been.
• Whenever percentages come into play, it’s important to note the opportunities or comparative attempts. Rafael Devers was mentioned in last week’s article as someone delivering a high percentage despite increased batted-ball events — where regression to the mean was likely. He is highlighted here again as, even with the most batted-ball events on the chart, Devers also has the highest number of hard hits. No matter which way we slice it, he continues to deliver as one of the best hitters in the game.
• Of course, there is the opposite side of the chart. The list of hitters who sit roughly below one-third of their batted-ball events registering as “hard hit.” Most of the names are not particularly known for delivering high home run totals, but there is also an argument that positive correction is looming. Players like Jesse Winker and Marcus Semien are experiencing career-low hard-hit percentages, and improvement in this area may consequently push their fantasy values higher.

Hard Hit Percentage: Pitchers

Below are two tables for Hard Hit Percentage by pitchers. The first is sorted from low to high – where the lower number is better – while the second is sorted from high to low. The tables included only qualified pitchers.

Sorted Low-to-High

Player	BBE	95 MPH+	HH %
Tony Gonsolin	86	20	23.3
Zach Eflin	96	24	25
Max Scherzer	100	28	28
Tyler Anderson	105	30	28.6
Jake Odorizzi	94	27	28.7
Dallas Keuchel	97	28	28.9
Zach Davies	102	30	29.4
Alek Manoah	112	33	29.5
Adam Wainwright	115	34	29.6
Dylan Cease	97	29	29.9
Zac Gallen	85	26	30.6
Miles Mikolas	146	45	30.8
Shohei Ohtani	77	24	31.2
Julio Urias	112	35	31.2
Trevor Rogers	98	31	31.6
Drew Smyly	99	32	32.3
Chris Bassitt	108	35	32.4
Pablo Lopez	108	35	32.4
Jordan Montgomery	104	34	32.7
Joe Ryan	98	32	32.7

 

Sorted High-to-Low

Player	BBE	95 MPH+	HH %
Nick Pivetta	97	49	50.5
Taylor Hearn	89	44	49.4
Triston McKenzie	93	45	48.4
Vince Velasquez	87	42	48.3
Daniel Lynch	85	41	48.2
German Marquez	125	60	48
Jose Urquidy	123	59	48
Brandon Woodruff	92	44	47.8
Patrick Corbin	125	59	47.2
Jose Berrios	140	66	47.1
Dakota Hudson	109	51	46.8
Yusei Kikuchi	83	38	45.8
Eric Lauer	79	36	45.6
Logan Gilbert	113	51	45.1
Nathan Eovaldi	127	57	44.9
Freddy Peralta	85	38	44.7
Zach Plesac	130	58	44.6
Drew Rasmussen	106	47	44.3
Erick Fedde	100	44	44
Nick Martinez	84	37	44

Notes

• Max Scherzer landing at the top of basically any pitching category is not a surprise. Tony Gonsolin? That’s a different story. Unless you read last week’s column where Gonsolin was also elite in terms of barrels per plate appearance. However we look at it, he is limiting hard hits, and even his general numbers are outstanding.
• The other player we absolutely must highlight here is Zach Eflin. He is sandwiched between the aforementioned duo of Scherzer and Gonsolin, but his numbers are a far cry from the best in the league. However, his hard-hit percentage tells a different story, and that’s certainly where we should direct our attention. Eflin is now a prime candidate for positive correction where, if he can continue to prevent elevated exit velocities, the rest of his numbers should follow suit.
• In the age of high strikeout rates, it’s impressive that Miles Mikolas can continually deliver solid outings. One look at the table above will easily explain how it happens. Mikolas leads all of Major League Baseball in batted ball events, yet he still sits in the top-12 for hard-hit percentage. Conversely, Shohei Ohtani has the fewest batted ball events among those who also ranked in the top-20 for lost hard-hit percentage.
• As always, it is necessary to reverse the table’s order and identify the players who are struggling at limiting hard hits. Like the hitters, the pitchers featured here are not surprising as a whole. Still, someone like Brandon Woodruff — who finished last year with an outstanding 2.56 ERA — is an eye-popping name. This year’s ERA is undeniably bloated, and we can now see why. It’s not overly comforting, and it might be a sign that a repeat of 2021 is not in the works for Woodruff.

Have something you want me to cover in this space or just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.