When trying to gauge the success rate of a batter or pitcher, it is usually helpful and essential to dive deeper than the surface numbers, i.e., a batting average can be inflated by a series of weaker hits in a small sample size. Hard hit percentage is that deeper dive, and it is the number behind the number. As usual, we will look at both sides of the game to identify the players who supply or limit hard hits regularly.

Hard Hit Percentage: Batters

Below are two tables for Hard Hit Percentage by batters with columns for Batted-Ball Event (BBE) and the number of hits with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. The first table is sorted from high to low – where the higher number is better – while the second is sorted from low-to-high. The tables included only qualified hitters.

Sorted High-to-Low

Sorted Low-to-High

Notes

• At the time of this writing, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez lead the league in home runs, respectively. Surprise, surprise, they also lead the league in hard-hit percentage. The correlation is obvious, but it is inspiring that Judge and Alvarez are striking the ball well even when it doesn’t clear the fences. An average of more than three-out-of-every-five batted balls leaves the bat at a speed of at least 95 mph.
• Since we started by connecting hard hits to home runs, we’ll continue along that theme with two players who aren’t on the list. The current top-five — really, six because three players are tied — in home runs include Byron Buxton and Anthony Rizzo, and neither is on the list. Much of their current value is being driven by the long ball, but their absence also highlights how impressive the aforementioned Judge and Alvarez have been.
• Whenever percentages come into play, it’s important to note the opportunities or comparative attempts. Rafael Devers was mentioned in last week’s article as someone delivering a high percentage despite increased batted-ball events — where regression to the mean was likely. He is highlighted here again as, even with the most batted-ball events on the chart, Devers also has the highest number of hard hits. No matter which way we slice it, he continues to deliver as one of the best hitters in the game.
• Of course, there is the opposite side of the chart. The list of hitters who sit roughly below one-third of their batted-ball events registering as “hard hit.” Most of the names are not particularly known for delivering high home run totals, but there is also an argument that positive correction is looming. Players like Jesse Winker and Marcus Semien are experiencing career-low hard-hit percentages, and improvement in this area may consequently push their fantasy values higher.

Hard Hit Percentage: Pitchers

Below are two tables for Hard Hit Percentage by pitchers. The first is sorted from low to high – where the lower number is better – while the second is sorted from high to low. The tables included only qualified pitchers.

Sorted Low-to-High

Sorted High-to-Low

Notes

• Max Scherzer landing at the top of basically any pitching category is not a surprise. Tony Gonsolin? That’s a different story. Unless you read last week’s column where Gonsolin was also elite in terms of barrels per plate appearance. However we look at it, he is limiting hard hits, and even his general numbers are outstanding.
• The other player we absolutely must highlight here is Zach Eflin. He is sandwiched between the aforementioned duo of Scherzer and Gonsolin, but his numbers are a far cry from the best in the league. However, his hard-hit percentage tells a different story, and that’s certainly where we should direct our attention. Eflin is now a prime candidate for positive correction where, if he can continue to prevent elevated exit velocities, the rest of his numbers should follow suit.
• In the age of high strikeout rates, it’s impressive that Miles Mikolas can continually deliver solid outings. One look at the table above will easily explain how it happens. Mikolas leads all of Major League Baseball in batted ball events, yet he still sits in the top-12 for hard-hit percentage. Conversely, Shohei Ohtani has the fewest batted ball events among those who also ranked in the top-20 for lost hard-hit percentage.
• As always, it is necessary to reverse the table’s order and identify the players who are struggling at limiting hard hits. Like the hitters, the pitchers featured here are not surprising as a whole. Still, someone like Brandon Woodruff — who finished last year with an outstanding 2.56 ERA — is an eye-popping name. This year’s ERA is undeniably bloated, and we can now see why. It’s not overly comforting, and it might be a sign that a repeat of 2021 is not in the works for Woodruff.

Have something you want me to cover in this space or just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.