Positional overview and philosophy

Every year we see running backs come out of the ether to have great seasons. In 2021, Leonard Fournette had a preseason ADP of RB32, James Conner‘s ADP was RB35, and Cordarrelle Patterson‘s ADP was RB89. They were all top-10 running backs last year.

Since you began playing fantasy football, how many times have you lusted after a waiver-wire running back who was completely off your radar in August? It happens all the time.

Running back is a wildly unpredictable position in the NFL. Late-round picks and undrafted free agents often find their way into leading roles. Stars such as Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell abruptly hit the wall and become ineffective. Injury rates are sky-high.

The RB position is chaotic. The WR position is relatively stable. Yes, there are also disappointments and pleasant surprises at wide receiver, but more often than not, you get what you pay for.

So let me ask you this: If you’re going to make a series of investments, should you put more capital into historically stable assets or historically volatile assets?

Exactly.

Pat Fitzmaurice’s Best Ball Running Back Rankings & Tiers

Why NFL Running Backs Are Like MLB Pitchers

I’ll put it another way. I’ve played fantasy baseball for a long time. I’m not great at it, but I’ve been consistently profitable. My basic strategy has remained unchanged for over a decade: Invest heavily in hitting and cut corners on pitching. Hitters are more predictable than pitchers. Surprise pitchers emerge every year. Pitchers who were effective the year before burst into flame. And of course, there are arm injuries galore.

Pitchers = running backs

Hitters = wide receivers

And yet, a lot of fantasy managers get hostile if you suggest that their high-end draft capital would be better spent on WRs than on RBs. The traditionalists insist that strength at running back is imperative, and many of them are hell-bent on an RB-RB start.

There’s no doubt running back is an important position. It’s just that investing heavily in the RB position doesn’t guarantee premium production.

So, what does this mean for best-ball drafts?

Be Opportunistic in Drafting RBs

My recommendation is to draft running backs opportunistically. That doesn’t mean avoiding the stars in the first round. If you draw pick 1.01, draft Jonathan Taylor. If you have a top-five pick, consider taking Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler. Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry and Najee Harris are worthy first-rounders, and I wouldn’t cluck my tongue at anyone who spent a late first-round pick on D’Andre Swift or Joe Mixon.

Just don’t overdraft RBs at the expense of the WR position. Remember, your best-ball lineups are going to have three wide receivers and only two running backs. As a rule of thumb, you should probably have more WRs than RBs after six rounds. You should definitely have more WRs than RB after eight rounds.

How many running backs should you draft? I think 5-6 is usually the sweet spot. In the rare instances where I do start RB-RB, I might go with only four running backs total. If I go with a zero-RB approach and load up on pass catchers early, then I might draft seven running backs, knowing that I’m going to need some extra dart throws to increase my chances of success.

Rules of Thumb

Some other important caveats:

— Remember, best-ball leagues use the PPR format, so adjust your RB values accordingly. Early-down grinders aren’t as valuable as they would be in half PPR or non-PPR.

— While pass-catching backs gain value in PPR, don’t overvalue a designated third-down back who has no chance of being used in a lead role. Nyheim Hines and J.D. McKissic can be useful in best-ball leagues, but neither guy has any chance of becoming a lead back, even if the starters on their respective teams were to go down. Hines and McKissic are third-down backs only.

— Downgrade running backs who are going to miss time. There aren’t many cases where that applies as I write this article in early May, but it will apply later in best-ball season when we start seeing injuries pile up in NFL training camps. Roster spots are precious in best-ball. Playing shorthanded for any length of time puts you at a disadvantage. You’re going to have injuries in-season; it’s inevitable. So don’t compound your problems by drafting a player who’s already hurt. Don’t trust the rosiest reports about an injured player’s possible return date. Fade injury optimism.

Let’s look at some quarterbacks to avoid and target in best-ball drafts.

Avoids

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)

He’s typically been coming off the board at the first-round/second-round turn. Look, it’s no fun to fade this guy. Williams looks terrific and has some marvelous highlight runs where he drags around would-be tacklers. But it’s deja vu all over again, isn’t it? The Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon. Maybe they start giving Williams a bigger share of the work this year. Or maybe they just do the same thing they did last year and split touches right down the middle. It’s gotten to the point where people view Melvin Gordon as an annoying obstacle, but the dude has been a very good running back for years.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

As mentioned earlier, downgrade running backs who are going to miss time. It’s probably inevitable that Kamara will be suspended. He was arrested on battery charges during Pro Bowl weekend and has a court hearing scheduled for early August. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell might not be pleased that the incident in question took place in Las Vegas while the league was hosting an event there and could make an example of Kamara. Stay away.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

He’s an exciting talent, but Washington’s re-signing of passing-down specialist J.D. McKissic keeps a lid on Gibson’s upside. It’s maddening that Gibson is a former college receiver but rarely sees the field on obvious passing downs. And if the presence of McKissic wasn’t frustrating enough, the Commanders also drafted Brian Robinson of Alabama, one of the better RB prospects in this year’s class.

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ)

As a rookie, Carter flashed exciting playmaking ability and run-catch versatility, leaving us anxious to see what he could do for an encore in 2022. Then the Jets drafted RB Breece Hall, widely considered to be the premier running back in this year’s draft. Carter investors can home for a 50/50 workload split, but Hall’s pedigree suggests that he’s going to get a majority share of the touches, relegating Carter to a supporting role.

Targets

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

People who focus on the dismal numbers Akers posted in last year’s playoffs are missing the point. What really matters is that even though Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel both gave the Rams high-level production when called upon last season, Rams head coach Sean McVay handed Akers the keys to the backfield for the team’s most important games of the year. In four playoff games, Akers had 67 carries and eight catches. Also, that Akers was able to return so quickly from a ruptured Achilles suggests that he’s a special athlete. I’m all in on Akers for 2022.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

He had an uber-productive college career at Iowa State, then tore it up at the Combine. Hall enters the league with a 98th percentile speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com, and 94th percentile burst score. This is the profile of a top-10 running back.

Travis Etienne (RB – JAC)

He missed his rookie year with a foot injury, and maybe it’s for the best that Etienne got to sit out the Urban Meyer circus. Etienne was electric in the open field at Clemson, and he’s going to have a clear runway in September as Jaguars RB James Robinson recovers from an Achilles tear in late December. What’s really appealing about Etienne is that he caught 85 passes over his final two college seasons and will catching passes from former Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence.

James Cook (RB – BUF)

He hasn’t picked up steam yet in best-ball drafts, but Dalvin Cook’s little brother figures to be the passing-down back in an explosive Buffalo offense right away, and there’s room for a bigger role if he can earn it. Cook arrives in the NFL with pass-catching chops and a 94th percentile speed score.

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