With the 2022 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it’s officially dynasty startup and rookie draft season. Each year the incoming rookie class offers fantasy managers the potential to acquire the next Jonathan Taylor or Ja’Marr Chase. However, for every future superstar, others are fantasy land mines to dodge. Here are three rookies to avoid in dynasty leagues in preparation for your upcoming drafts.
John Metchie (WR – HOU)
John Metchie, like most Alabama receivers in recent history, is a polished route runner who consistently gets clean releases off the line of scrimmage. However, some red flags cause concern regarding how he projects as an NFL WR. No single stat perfectly predicts which WR prospects will be successful at the next level, but two of the best are dominator rating and breakout age.
Metchie has a career dominator rating of 18% (16th in the class among WRs) and a breakout age of 21-years-old (19th). His best single-season dominator rating came in 2021, when he accounted for just 20% of Alabama’s touchdowns and receiving yards (21st). College production is one of the better predictors of how prospects will perform in the NFL, and Metchie was unable to assert himself as an alpha WR during his time at Tuscaloosa.
He has a slight frame, measuring 5-foot-11 and 189 pounds, but lacks the athletic ability needed for players with smaller statures. He may lack the room to improve as an already refined WR, and we might already be seeing him playing at or near his ceiling. Durability is also a concern for smaller players, and Metchie has already dealt with injuries, having torn his ACL in the CFP Semifinals.
Lastly, Metchie projects to play in the slot, so he won’t benefit from receiving many high-value downfield targets that outside WRs often get. In sum, he may end up contributing in the NFL, but his upside is limited and his floor is low for fantasy purposes.
Matt Corral (QB – CAR)
Matt Corral’s compact throwing motion, accuracy and strong-arm fit Lane Kiffin’s run-pass option offense at Ole Miss to near perfection. In 2021, over 60% of Corral’s pass attempts came from play-action, a number that led all of college football and is unlikely to be duplicated in the NFL.
Ole Miss ran a quarterback-friendly scheme with simple reads. Per PFF, Corral had the 5th most passing yards from screens in 2021, and he ranked only 60th in big-time throw percentage (4.3%). These factors suggest that Corral will be up against a steep learning curve adapting to quarterback play in the NFL. He will have to prove he can work through progressions and make sound decisions, which he didn’t often do in college.
Corral dealt with multiple injuries in 2021, and durability will continue to be a concern given his slight frame. Other worries for Corral include a lack of touch on passes that require it, poor accuracy when he’s on the move, and he’s undersized for the position (6-foot-2,” 212 pounds). He is a good athlete and a fearless rusher, but he takes unnecessary hits.
Corral has intriguing physical tools, and he may continue to develop as an NFL quarterback. With multiple causes for concern in his game, view him as a high-risk investment in dynasty leagues.
Zamir White (RB – LV)
Zamir White is an explosive athlete with a physical running style who’s punished would-be tacklers during his three years at Georgia. The primary concern about White’s game is that he has not shown an ability to contribute as a receiver out of the backfield. White has just 17 career receptions and came off the field on passing downs.
With White never functioning as more than a committee back in Georgia’s offense, he has produced just a 15% career dominator rating (17th in the class among RBs). Backs who work in committees are at a disadvantage in regards to creating a large dominator rating, but White projects to have a similar role at the NFL level, which limits his upside for fantasy.
In recent history, only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb have consistently produced high-end fantasy production from the running back position while not contributing much in the passing game. Both players have the same physical rushing style as White, but both also have bigger bodies equipped to withstand repeated collisions with NFL defenders. Henry (6-foot-3/247 pounds) and Chubb (5-foot-11/227 pounds) are built to dish out punishment on the gridiron, whereas White has average size for the position (6-foot/214 pounds). Durability is a concern for White, who has already torn two ACLs during his playing career.
Consider White as a risky fantasy investment who will likely be a touchdown-dependent committee back in the NFL. White’s ceiling is probably closer to Damien Harris than either Henry or Chubb in terms of fantasy production. Harris is a fine player, but that’s White’s best-case scenario.
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