Positional overview and philosophy
The late-round quarterback strategy was based on the idea that we could cut corners at the position, save our precious early-round draft capital for the other positions, and keep up with the Joneses at QB. These days, you might be able to keep up with the Daniel Joneses if you pay down at quarterback, but you’re likely to fall behind against almost everyone else.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Best Ball Quarterback Rankings & Tiers
Positional overview and philosophy
The late-round quarterback strategy was based on the idea that we could cut corners at the position, save our precious early-round draft capital for the other positions, and keep up with the Joneses at QB. These days, you might be able to keep up with the Daniel Joneses if you pay down at quarterback, but you’re likely to fall behind against almost everyone else.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Best Ball Quarterback Rankings & Tiers
Embrace the rushing QB
We are in the era of the running quarterback. Last season, nine quarterbacks ran for at least 300 yards, and six finished top 10 in fantasy points per game among QBs. Three quarterbacks – Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen – ran for more than 700 yards, and all three finished in the top seven in fantasy points per game.
The days of just trying to get by at quarterback are over. We’re looking for smash games from our QBs, and quarterbacks who run are more likely to deliver smash games than their immobile counterparts.
Some fantasy analysts remain averse to drafting quarterbacks early. I am not one of those analysts. If I can get a difference-maker capable of delivering smash games on the regular … yes, please.
Either or: QB or TE Early
But I have a personal rule for drafting QBs and TEs. I’ll take either a quarterback or a tight end early, but never both. This goes for best-ball and conventional leagues alike. If you draft, say, TE Mark Andrews in the late second round and QB Patrick Mahomes in the early fifth round, it will be hard for you to make quota at WR and RB. You’ll be chasing at those two critical positions throughout the rest of the draft, and you won’t ever catch up.
Generally, I’d rather splurge on a quarterback and try to figure something out on the cheap at tight end.
If you pay up at quarterback and get a stud who can provide plenty of smash games, you’ll only need to draft two QBs. Your second quarterback could even be a low-end QB1, in which case you’d have mucho smash-game potential. As Gordon Gekko famously said in the film Wall Street, “Greed is good.”
If you don’t land a top-10 quarterback, consider drafting three QBs instead of two to boost your weekly chances of getting a smash game. If you didn’t land a top-10 quarterback, you spent your early-round draft capital elsewhere and are probably in good shape with at least one or two of the other positions. For example, if you’re especially strong at RB, you can justify taking a third quarterback and trying to get by with just four running backs rather than the usual 5-6.
Ideally, however, you’re going to land a top quarterback.
Stacking is good
A final word about best-ball QB strategy: Stacking is good.
“Stacking” means trying to pair your QB with at least one of the pass catchers on his team — and preferably one of the top pass catchers on that team.
Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) of FTN perfectly described the logic behind stacking: “Stacking is critical in best-ball … because it minimizes how much we need to get right.”
If Lamar Jackson throws a TD pass to Rashod Bateman and you have both players on your best-ball team, that touchdown is an incredibly impactful play for your team because you’re being doubly rewarded.
Also, if Lamar Jackson has a good season as a passer, the odds are that Bateman will have a good season as a receiver. Their success is correlated, and if you invest in both, you can compound your profits if they outperform expectations.
Stacking is essential in best-ball formats where the winner gets nearly all prize money. You need to land some haymakers to finish first in a best-ball league, and stacking gives you a better chance to land heavy punches.
Let’s look at some quarterbacks to avoid and target in best-ball drafts.
Avoids
Brady’s ADP in Fanball leagues over the last 40 days is QB6. That might not seem unreasonable considering that Brady was the QB3 in fantasy points per game last season. But Brady doesn’t run, save for the occasional QB sneak, and he’s going to be 45 when the 2022 season kicks off. Eventually, he has to show signs of age, right? I mean, who is this guy — Nosferatu? It’s crazy that he threw for a career-high 5,316 yards last year at age 44. I’m not willing to double-down on crazy.
The move to Denver has a lot of people feeling bullish about Russ, who might finally get to cook. But will he run? Wilson has rushed for fewer than 400 yards in two of the last three seasons, and he averaged a career-low 13.1 rushing yards per game in 2021. A decrease in rushing production means a reduction in smash-game potential.
Watson’s ADP on Fanball is QB14, which would be a bargain under normal circumstances. But Watson is facing 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct, and the NFL could suspend Watson even before those lawsuits are resolved. MLB’s two-year suspension of pitcher Trevor Bauer for violating the league’s domestic abuse policy could pressure the NFL to issue a lengthier suspension for Watson than it might have otherwise. Prolonged absences are a killer in best ball. There’s no IR, so you have one less player contributing to the cause. Watson is not a risk you can justify taking.
As noted above, missed games are a killer in best-ball leagues. What if Tannehill, who’s entering his age-34 season, gives way to rookie Malik Willis during the season. Also, Tannehill has run for seven TDs in each of the last two seasons. Don’t bet on a three-peat.
Targets
He has a sixth-round ADP in Fanball leagues. That’s terrific value for a quarterback who probably would have produced a third straight 1,000-yard rushing season in 2022 had he not missed four games. Watson averaged 28.1 fantasy points per game in 2019, his first full season as a starter, and he’s averaged better than 20 FPPG in each of the last two seasons. Jackson is already a bargain, and he may start going even later in drafts now that the Ravens have traded away WR Marquise Brown.
He averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game in 2020 and 22.6 FPPG in 2021, yet Murray is typically going in the late sixth or early seventh round of best-ball drafts. His established floor justifies that price, and there’s room for growth as he enters his age-25 season.
There were concerns before the 2021 season that Hurts wasn’t a good enough passer to hold a starting job and that the Eagles didn’t have total faith in him. Hurts ran for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns in 15 games last season, helping him finish QB7 in fantasy points per game. He might never be an average passer, but the addition of A.J. Brown helps. Hurts is being drafted as the QB9 in fan ball with an overall ADP in the early eighth round. He was one of the best QB bargains in best-ball drafts last year, and he’s still a bargain.
As with Hurts last year, the worrywarts have issues with Lance for 2022. Some people think Jimmy Garoppolo could be the 49ers’ Week 1 quarterback, though it would be organizational malpractice for the 49ers not to play Lance. There have been whispers that the Niners have been “underwhelmed” by Lance so far. Don’t believe the anti-hype. Lance is going to start, and even though his results in the passing game aren’t always aesthetically pleasing in his first go-round as an NFL starter, Lance is going to rack up major fantasy points as a runner. Lance is a screaming value with an ADP outside the top 100 in Fanball drafts.
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