PREMIUM

Players to Avoid in Dynasty Rookie Drafts (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL Draft has come and gone, and that means it’s time for dynasty rookie and startup drafts to really take off. We’ll have you covered throughout the draft season. You can find our full dynasty startup, dynasty rookie, and dynasty superflex rookie rankings that will be updated through draft season.

Let’s take a look at players our analysts are avoiding in dynasty rookie drafts.

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)
Expert Consensus Ranking No. 5 overall – RB2

The player I am avoiding is running back Kenneth Walker III. With a rookie draft ADP in the top-3, it’s just too steep a price to pay for a running back that is projected to be used heavily on early downs on an offense that easily projects to be bottom-5 in the NFL led by the unsurprising duo of Drew Lock/Geno Smith at quarterback.

Let’s take a look at players our analysts are avoiding in dynasty rookie drafts.

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)
Expert Consensus Ranking No. 5 overall – RB2

Even if Walker can carve out a first-year workload similar to that of Chris Carson circa 2020 – 16.4 touches per game, 56% snaps share when healthy – it’s still going to be a massive uphill battle for him to be a fantasy producer in Year 1.

Pete Carroll has a stable of backs including Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas who all figure to work in at some point despite Walker’s Round 2 draft capital.
Again, even when Carson was the RB1, he was splitting snaps.

Penny was brought back on a one-year deal for $5 million (12tth-highest cap hit), Chris Carson – if healthy – is due $6.1 million (10th-highest cap hit) and Homer/Dallas have routinely worked as pass-catchers out of the backfield.

Seattle also finished dead-last in targets to the RB position last season, creating serious doubt that Walker will be used in that fashion in any capacity as a rookie. Part of that is on Russell Wilson‘s lack of juice in the screen game, but the offense itself doesn’t predicate much RB pass-game usage. Geno Smith posted a meager 12% RB target rate (three per game) in his three starts last season. Drew Lock was at 17%.

The Seahawks have the chance to be a running back by committee and dumpster fire on offense this season for all the reasons I’ve laid out, which is why I am adamantly against paying the premium for Walker. If this team falls behind in games, there’s no telling which RB will even be on the field.

I feel so much better about going with one of the many rookie WRs selected in Round 1 ahead of Walker based on his landing spot.

Hopefully, opportunities should open in this backfield in Year 2 for Walker with Penny likely leaving in free agency. But does he get replaced with another Day 2 running back? Will Seattle’s offense even be efficient in 2023 and beyond? So much uncertainty with this entire situation has me hesitant.
– Andrew Erickson

John Metchie (WR – HOU)
Expert Consensus Ranking No. 16 overall – WR11

John Metchie‘s second-round draft capital could push him up higher in rookie drafts than he deserves to go. This pick by the Texans was curious. Metchie has the helmet pedigree residing from Alabama, but besides that, his prospect profile is an overwhelming yawn. While we can try to explain away his 29th percentile college dominator and 32nd percentile breakout age (21.1) considering the players in the Alabama locker, it’s still notable. Metchie also ranked outside the top 50 in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) in each of the last two seasons. Metchie had the chance to possibly step up in his final collegiate season at Alabama as the passing attack’s top target, but he saw that role go to Jameson Williams, sadly. If you’re selecting him in rookie drafts, you’re likely following the Texans’ draft approach and shooting for a high floor option rather than aiming for a ceiling selection. There’s nothing wrong with that, but expecting Metchie ever to be more than a middling WR3/WR4 type is probably asking too much.
– Derek Brown

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)
Expert Consensus Ranking No. 24 overall – WR14

Dynasty managers are bound to be tempted by Robinson after the Giants invested an early-second-round pick in him, but the pot odds here are terrible. Robinson is 5-8, 179 pounds. He has 4.4 speed, but at his size, that only amounts to a 25th percentile speed score. In the Super Bowl era, only two wide receivers shorter than 5-9 have topped 900 yards in a single season — Richard Johnson for the Lions in 1989 and Cole Beasley for the Bills in 2020. Granted, Beasley’s 967-yard season two years ago came under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who’s now Robinson’s head coach. But Beasley had Josh Allen as his quarterback. Robinson is presumably going to have Daniel Jones as his QB this year, and in the future … who knows? Even if the Giants trade Kadarius Toney, I’m still going to be out on Wan’Dale.
– Pat Fitzmaurice