Like a kid waking on December 26th, I’m sad that the yearly spectacle of NFL Draft presents and surprises is gone until next year. Day 3 can maintain a sliver of hope you had coming into this holiday season or crush your soul like finding a lump of coal in a stocking. Who found a beautifully wrapped draft surprise under the Day 3 tree and who will be left sobbing over their NFL gifts?
Winners
Until Rob Gronkowski decides to answer Tom Brady‘s pleas to return to Tampa Bay, Cade Otton slots in as the number two tight behind only Cameron Brate. Otton never managed more than 32 receptions or 344 receiving yards during his four years at Washington, but he managed to parlay his prototypical size (6’5″ 245 lbs) and 91st percentile, college dominator, into a fourth-round selection. Brate is a free agent in 2024 and could be cut next year saving the Buccaneers a little over two million dollars against the cap. Otton could be the team’s long-term solution at the position.
Dameon Pierce falling into the fourth round isn’t as sexy as if he would have snuck into Day 2, but the draft capital is enough combined with the landing spot to be hopeful for an early year one opportunity. Pierce could own this backfield with only Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead as real competition for touches. His pass protection skills will allow him to carve out passing down snaps from the jump with the upside for more work should he impress.
Daniel Bellinger‘s collegiate 1.19 yards per route run won’t blow you away, but he did show promise in his final season, increasing it to 1.66 (per PFF). Bellinger walks into a situation where he’ll face off against journeymen Ricky Seals-Jones and Jordan Akins for immediate playing time. He surprised many, including me, at the combine with his 4.63 40-yard dash (86th percentile) and 82nd percentile burst score. As a former linebacker recruit that transitioned to tight end upon arriving at San Diego State, he’s still finding his way at the position. The athleticism, draft capital, and lack of an entrenched starter should allow him to stake a claim as the team’s short (and maybe long-term) answer at the position should he perform well.
Romeo Doubs slipped a tad bit past his EDP of 119 per Grindingthemocks.com, but he ended up with a nice landing spot with Green Bay. Randall Cobb is aging, and the Lizard King is on a one-year deal. Doubs didn’t perform well at the Senior Bowl, repeatedly getting locked up on the line by corners, but he checks some boxes to remain hopeful on his analytical profile. Doubs finished his career at Nevada with 62nd percentile or higher marks in college dominator, yards per reception, and target share. There’s an opportunity with a wide-open depth chart behind Christian Watson and Allen Lazard.
Austin Ekeler will still be the leader of this running back room, so don’t get it twisted, but Spiller could carve out a valuable role in year one. Ekeler is entering his age 27 season and has sustained an ankle sprain, concussion, quad strain, and sizable hamstring strain (and accompanying knee hyperextension) since 2020. If the Chargers have realistic Super Bowl aspirations (they do), then they want Ekeler healthy for the long haul of the NFL season. Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree were not up to providing the Chargers with a decent running mate for Ekeler. Spiller could be that guy. With Ekeler seeing the second-most red-zone touches among running backs last year, there are high equity touches to be had in this offense.
Losers
Zamir White‘s selection in the fourth round was almost perfectly in line with his 119 EDP per Grindingthemocks.com. While the Raiders declining Josh Jacobs‘ fifth-year option is a plus for White, if Josh McDaniels uses a committee backfield as he did in New England, it will be problematic for White both in 2022 and long term. Outside of Jacobs, the team also has Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden, and Ameer Abdullah on the roster, so the likelihood of White adding pass-catching work to his resume is slim.
The madness continues from a former Patriots employee to now discussing the root source of our running back headaches. Pierre Strong got the draft capital (fourth round) that should make us feel encouraged, but the landing spot will be annoying. With Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson on the roster this season hogging early-down work and James White soaking up the routes, Strong could see a redshirt season. White is signed to a team-friendly deal for the next two seasons. While Damien Harris being an unrestricted free agent in 2023 is helpful, White and Stevenson will still be around to cause migraines. This is also not even mentioning that Strong’s strength is on zone runs which have not been a big part of New England’s run game scheme. The team has utilized gap and power runs as the foundation of their ground game. In keeping with the theme of the rest of the Patriots’ draft, this pick was puzzling.
Charlie Kolar / Isaiah Likely (BAL – TE)
Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely couldn’t have asked for a worse landing spot. Mark Andrews isn’t a free agent until 2026 and will likely remain a spearhead of their passing attack. Add in Baltimore’s sickening neutral script passing rate, and you have a recipe for disaster for their NFL outlooks.
Considering his diminutive size, if Calvin Austin hit for us in fantasy, he was already on track to be a massive outlier. Now, if he’s to accomplish this, he’ll also have to buck draft capital too. Austin’s EDP was 89, so to watch him slip to 138 overall is a big ding. The Steelers also addressed their wide receiver needs earlier in the draft with the selection of George Pickens. While Austin could see some slot time this year as a different archetype from Pickens, it’s also possible they rotate that role between Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool, effectively burying Austin during his rookie campaign.
Sam Howell‘s once-bright star has collapsed into a black hole. Slipping to the fifth round of the NFL Draft is a coffin nail for his fantasy football future. If we want to spin this with an optimistic tone, he should be able to compete with Taylor Heinicke in camp for the backup role, but with this type of soul-sucking draft capital, it’s difficult to project him getting a chance to start.
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