If you’re reading this, I’d like you to do so with a 15-team context in mind. However, the following players are still names to know in shallower formats. At least plant these guys on a watch list or ‘churn and burn’ the bottom of your rosters if you ever need a bench bat to step up. For my part, though, I’m generally looking at fringe types of players who could possibly find my Week 5 lineups at the NFBC.
I’ll go position by position, and for the sake of brevity, I’ll lump corner infielders (1B and 3B) and middle infielders (2B and SS) together. Let’s see whose proverbial arrows are trending upward heading into Week 5, eh?
Lastly, I pulled the numbers ahead of Saturday’s games. If anyone goes bonkers to begin the weekend, you may see a slightly different line given the small sample we are dealing with early in the 2022 fantasy baseball season.
Catchers
Zack Collins (C – TOR)
Collins’ stock has been up since early April when the Blue Jays shipped Reese McGuire to the White Sox for him. Collins, a former first-round pick for Chicago back in 2016, simplifies his approach at the plate this year. Here’s a good quote from Collins that he shared with Inside the Blue Jays before the season started:
“This year, I’m here for one thing, and that’s to put the ball as far as I possibly can and drive in runs. That’s the name of the game. Enough of the mechanical thinking and stuff like that. I’m here to hunt my pitch and hit it far. And that’s it.”
We’ll have to watch the strikeouts with Collins, but if his batted ball quality remains sound, he’ll have value in two-catcher formats. At the same time, the Blue Jays are beset by injuries (Danny Jansen, Teoscar Hernandez) and the Covid IL (Cavan Biggio). Currently, Collins is 96th percentile in average EV (94.2 MPH), and he ranks inside the top 15% in hard-hit rate (50.0%). And despite the gargantuan 40% strikeout rate, he’s still batting .256 due to all the hard contact.
William Contreras (C – ATL)
Contreras double-donged in his return to Atlanta on Friday night. He should get decent playing time with Travis d’Arnaud as long as Manny Pina remains sidelined. Pina has struggled with inflammation in his left wrist all season, and d’Arnaud isn’t the healthiest of starters. Add in that prospect Shea Langeliers was shipped to Oakland in the Matt Olson deal, and it’s not crazy to think that Contreras gets plenty of opportunities in 2022. Batted ball quality has never been a struggle for Contreras. Among the 54 catchers with 100 batted ball events in 2021, Contreras ranked 12th in hard-hit rate (44.5%), eighth in FB/LD exit velocity (95.8 MPH), and sixth in max exit velocity (114.2 MPH). In short, he can punish a baseball. He was also batting .292 at Triple-A Gwinnett before his call-up. Still just 24 years old, there’s still room for growth from the young catching prospect. He’s not on my radar as a starter next week, given his backup status and the tough pitching matchups for Atlanta (@NYM, MIL). However, he’s a name to monitor and stash wherever possible to see if he continues raking at the big league level.
Ryan Jeffers (C – MIN)
Ryan Jeffers is probably a catcher to bench for this week, as Gary Sanchez returned to the Twins lineup on Friday and got the nod on Saturday. Maybe Jeffers spells him on Sunday, but for Week 5, you have to think the Twins will try to get Sanchez going. A four-game set at Baltimore to begin the week looks pretty enticing. Long-term, though, I like holding Jeffers where I can. He’s trimmed his swinging strike rate (under 10%) and is making more contact this year (over 80%). That’s great news for a guy with consistent double-digit barrel rates for his career.
Corner Infield
Jurickson Profar (1B/OF – SD)
I know the .197 BA is ghastly, but hear me out. Profar isn’t far removed from being a bat we thought could consistently offer 20-homer, 10-steal production. He’s wiggled his way into more than one of my NFBC lineups so far due to the early power surge (5 homers, 12 runs, 15 RBI). He’s also chipped in with a stolen base already. As for the batting average, it’s likely going to be as wild as Profar’s career BABIPs, which are all over the map. The saving grace thus far is fewer ground balls and a career-high 22.7% HR/FB rate. His career-high average launch angle of 18.5 degrees, career-high pull rate, and less soft contact overall are all promising for continued power output. And maybe–just maybe–a bouncier ball? That would help, too.
If Profar’s .170 BABIP normalizes anywhere close to his career .259 mark, we could have a solid corner infield bat on our hands while the Padres have some hitters injured (Luke Voit, Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers). As a bonus, Profar can help cover one of your five outfield spots at the NFBC. A .240+ hitter with some power and some chip-in speed will play. And for what it’s worth, Profar is underperforming his .260 xBA.
Daniel Vogelbach (1B – PIT)
Vogelbach moved into the cleanup spot for the Pirates on Friday, which should be more conducive to amassing counting stats on a Pirates team that lacks punch. Still, consistent playing time against right-handed pitching means he’s firmly on the radar. He found the bench on Saturday against the left-hander Sean Manaea, but against righty-heavy rotations, he should be on your mind. He could be a solid weekend play for Week 5, as at least two of those three games should be against right-handed Reds starters in Cincinnati. His .390 BABIP will normalize at some point, so I don’t believe in the .311 batting average. However, his .260 xBA will play, and his 9.1% barrel rate is solid, as are his other quality of contact metrics. For his career against right-handed pitchers, Vogelbach has a .216 ISO, a .348 wOBA, and a 121 wRC+. When Pittsburgh has a string of right-handers on deck, you know what to do.
Maikel Franco (3B – WAS)
Franco deserves some love after being left for dead this offseason. The 29-year-old has three 20+ homer seasons to his credit and a strong showing in the abbreviated 2020 year (8 HR, .278 BA). He reads like a savvy veteran addition for the Nationals, as he’s slashing .293/.322/.427 thus far with a pair of homers. He’s sitting on a career-high strikeout rate of 23.0%, but that’s obviously not bad and TOTALLY WORTH IT if the quality of contact holds up. So far, Franco is in the 90th percentile for max EV (112.1 MPH) and is above average in average EV, hard-hit rate, xBA, and barrel rate. That’s promising for a guy who doesn’t strike out much historically and has plenty of playing time.
Middle Infield
Ha-Seong Kim (2B/3B/SS – SD)
Kim is up to three homers and a steal already, and with triple-eligibility and what looks like everyday playing time. That has to be on your radar in deeper leagues. We’ll see what happens with the Padres moving forward, but as already mentioned, there are plenty of holes to fill in that lineup right now. There’s a surprising amount of RED on Kim’s Statcast page, with the obvious exceptions of average EV and hard-hit rate. But he’s in the 61st percentile for max EV and the 74th for barrel rate. He’s also inside the top 8% of the league with a .414 wOBA. He’s batting at the bottom of the Padres lineup, but if you need a middle infielder with a bit of power and speed to burn, Kim is your guy.
Taylor Walls (3B/SS – TB)
Walls is seeing a lot of playing time for the Rays, and he’s up to four steals already. The return of Yandy Diaz will probably pour a little cold water on Walls’ opportunities. Still, we need to be mindful of when the Rays have a string of starts against left-handed pitching (or another infield injury, as is currently the case with Ji-Man Choi). Walls’ best attributes are his defensive versatility and speed, but there’s a lot of red on his Statcast page, too. He’s passive at the plate with a 36.0% swing rate and a minuscule 15.2% chase rate, but that should help him post a double-digit walk rate easily, allowing him to feature his 86th percentile sprint speed. He could threaten a 10/15 sort of pace if he starts to flash a little power in the bigs…stay tuned.
Outfield
In his Risers and Fallers piece, the great Brian Entrekin discussed Josh Naylor and Joc Pederson, so I’ll shy away from those guys and give you some other names.
Austin Hays (OF – BAL)
Hays isn’t getting enough love in shallow formats. He’s just 44% rostered at Yahoo, but he was one of my most drafted players as one of the primary Baltimore bats this season. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but he’ll be productive if he can just stay healthy. I know, yikes. Sue me. Still, Hays is healthy right now and off to a great start. His 11.1% walk rate is nearly double his career 6.1% rate, and his 18.5% strikeout rate is better than all of his season-long career marks except for a 21-game sample in 2019 (17.3% K-rate). The outfield fence movement in Baltimore is a buzzkill, but to take out some of the sting, Hays has leveled out his swing a bit and is currently sporting a career-best 25.0% line drive rate that makes me trust the .276 xBA a bit more than I might at first glance. A .265 career hitter, there’s no reason he can’t make an impact as a 20+ homer and 7-10 steal sort of hitter.
Harrison Bader (OF – STL)
Over the last week, Bader has batted .316 and stolen a whopping four bags. He is always a strong defender, and he finally appears poised for a career year now that the outfield playing time in St. Louis is sorted out. As a current bonus, they need whatever offense Bader can provide while Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson continue to be underwhelming. Bader is a career .245 hitter, but he’s still just 27 years old with room to grow–and his .253 xBA is a little more promising. He has the power and the speed to post a 20/20 season, and that sort of guy shouldn’t be languishing around in your player pool. As for Week 5, the Cardinals have a full seven games on deck, with many uninspiring KC hurlers on tap. There’s also the lefty Alex Wood for the later part of the week, who just had a pretty uneven turn against the Nationals. I like the matchups, especially at the early part of the week. Bader should get that first home run pretty soon.
Those are the guys on my radar right now, but I’d love to hear who is on yours!
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