It’s been an unbelievable start to the conference semis, and watching Ja Morant go crazy on Tuesday was quite the treat. That’s why we love basketball, and it has me excited to keep rolling along here!

The two home teams in these semis took care of business in Game 1. That means these road teams need to step up because going down 0-2 is quite the tall task. Both teams have an uphill battle when looking at the spreads, so let’s start there!

Schedule and Odds

PHI at MIA (MIA -8) O/U: 208
Miami dominated Game 1, winning 106-92.

DAL at PHX (PHX -6.5) O/U: 216
Phoenix took care of business in Game 1, prevailing, 121-114.

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Kyle Lowry (hamstring) Questionable
• Joel Embiid (face) OUT
• Tim Hardaway Jr.(foot) OUT
• Tyler Herro (ankle) Questionable
• P.J. Tucker (calf) Questionable
• Gabe Vincent (knee) Questionable
• Max Strus (hamstring) Questionable

Core Plays

Tobias Harris (PF – PHI): $7,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Toby needs to take over in the absence of Joel Embiid, and he showed that in Game 1. Harris had 27 points and six rebounds in that defeat, taking over this offense. He also did that in the regular season, averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game when Embiid was out. It just leaves too much on the table for Harris not to succeed, and Toby’s price dropped a bit too much because of his diminished role after the Harden trade.

Bam Adebayo (C – MIA): $8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Some were surprised that we had Bam in this section on Monday, but the matchups make him a magical play in this series. With Embiid out of the picture, Philly has no one to cover Bam. That was on full display when Adebayo accumulated 24 points. 12 rebounds, four assists, and two steals on just 10 shots. He will stuff the stat sheet at ease in this brilliant individual matchup, and Miami will keep exploiting it as long as Embiid remains out.

Cash Game Considerations

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $11,400 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Luka is the best play in fantasy right now. The 23-year-old All-Star has at least 53 DK points in 13 straight games, averaging nearly 60 fantasy points per game in that span. His best performance was the Game 1 on Monday, collecting 45 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in a magnificent performance. He’s handling the ball on every possession and taking 30 shots a game, so he’s the safest cash game option out there right now.

James Harden (PG/SG – PHI): $9,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Harden had a rough night in Game 1, but we can’t overlook this expanded role. With Embiid off the floor this season, James had a 36 percent usage rate while averaging 1.6 DK points per minute. To put that in perspective, he would average 65 DK points if he plays the 40 minutes we’re expecting. Getting 65 DK points is a bit of a stretch, but he averaged that when he had this role with the Rockets a few years back. The price is the most important thing here because all he needs is 45 DK points at this price to be a good cash game play, and that seems like his floor right now.

GPP Targets

Max Strus (SG/SF – MIA): $4,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Strus didn’t do much in Game 1, but the role is still there for him to succeed. He played 32 minutes in that blowout while Duncan Robinson was exiled from the rotation. That means Strus is the sharpshooting wing and a guarantee for 30-35 minutes. It’s been the case recently, with Max averaging 23 DK points per game across 28 minutes a night over his last 11 outings. That’s quite the total from a sub-$5K player, and he makes for a great pairing with guys like Harden, Doncic, Bam, and Harris.

Paul Reed (PF/C – PHI): $4,600 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
It was unclear who the big man would be in Philly with Embiid out, but Reed was the best player in Game 1. He battled foul trouble all night but still had 26 DraftKings points across just 13 minutes. We believe he would have played more if he didn’t has five fouls, and this might be the game where they unleash him. The 26 fantasy points alone make him one of the best GPP plays because he could be the best per-dollar play on the board if he somehow doubles his playing time.

Value Plays

Dorian Finney-Smith (SF/PF – DAL): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
We had Finney-Smith in this section on Monday, and we’re going right back to the well. The simple fact is, they can’t keep Finney-Smith off the floor right now. He’s played at least 40 minutes in all seven playoff games, posting a 29-point average across 43 minutes a night. That’s ridiculous from a player in this price range, and it doesn’t even consider his 40-point upside in this monster role.

Jae Crowder (SF/PF – PHX): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Crowder battled foul trouble all night in Game 1, but he still finished with 11 points, eight rebounds, and three assists across 28 minutes. That’s all you can hope for from a player in this price range, and he’s more likely to play 40 minutes than 30 minutes as long as he stays out of foul trouble. We say that because we’re talking about a guy who averaged 24 DK points per game in the regular season across nearly 30 minutes a night. They need him out there to cover Luka, which should earn him all the run he can handle.

Advantageous Pricing

• James Harden (PG/SG – PHI): $9,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
• Jimmy Butler (SF/PF – MIA): $9,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
• Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $8,700 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
• Devin Booker (SG – PHX): $8,200 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
• Tyler Herro (PG/SG – MIA): $6,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts