These Conference Finals have lacked competitiveness. It’s been fun to watch some of the best teams in the NBA go at it, but there haven’t been any nail-biters. Part of the issue is that every player is beat up at this point of the season, and it’s forcing some lackluster play when the scorelines get out of hand. We’re going to hope that’s not the case here because we have our first elimination game of the Eastern Conference Finals!
Game 5 was a competitive one between these two teams, but Boston was able to grab a 13-point win. They took care of business with their defense, holding Miami to 80 points on 32 percent from the field and 16 percent from three-point range. That obviously won’t get it done, and it will be tough for the Heat here.
Schedule and Odds
MIA at BOS (BOS -9) O/U: 205.5
Boston pulled out the big one in Game 5. That gave them a 3-2 series lead heading back home, which might be the nail in Miami’s coffin. The Celtics stifled them with their second-half defense, going on a 26-8 run to take control.
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Injury Report
- Robert Williams (knee) Questionable
- Kyle Lowry (hamstring) Questionable
- Tyler Herro (groin) Questionable
- Kyle Lowry (hamstring) Questionable
- Max Strus (hamstring) Questionable
- P.J. Tucker (knee) Questionable
- Marcus Smart (ankle) Questionable
Core Plays
Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS): $11,000 DraftKings, $16,000 FanDuel
Tatum is well on his way to the new Larry Bird Trophy. That award is given to the best player in the Eastern Conference Finals, and JT has undoubtedly been that. The perennial All-Star has at least 43 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games, posting a 47-point average in that span. That’s hard to avoid with many of the Miami players struggling, making Tatum the safest play on the board. He flirted with a triple-double in Game 5 despite struggling with his shot, and he’s doing everything for this offense right now.
Cash Game Considerations
Jimmy Butler (SF/PF – MIA): $10,200 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel
Butler has been terrible over the last three games, but it’s strange to see this price drop with the way he was playing before that. The All-Star was averaging 54 DraftKings points per game in these playoffs before that most recent stretch, and it’s hard to overlook production like that from such a talented player. The simple fact is, this is an elimination game for Jimmy, and this guy will not go down without a fight. Many of you will be scared to use JB, but he should be the second player in your lineup after JT.
GPP Targets
Robert Williams (PF/C – BOS): $6,800 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Williams was one of the best GPP plays during the regular season, providing some of the best per-minute averages that we’ve ever seen. The big man is averaging nearly 1.3 DK points per minute for his career, finishing the regular season with a 34-point average. Injuries have kept him down, but six points, 10 rebounds, and three blocks across 27 minutes in Game 5 is an encouraging sign. As long as Rob-Will gets 25-30 minutes, he should never be this cheap with his stat-stuffing abilities.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF – MIA): $3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Max Strus was horrid in Game 5, and it looks like Duncan might recapture the role that was once his. Robinson was the sharpshooter for Miami before Strus broke out last month, but Robinson got most of that run in Game 5. He took 12 shots across 27 minutes, and as long as he’s doing that, Duncan should never be this affordable. This has proven to be one of the best shooters around, and a hot night could keep him on the floor for 30 minutes. He was doing that a ton in the regular season, and using him might be an excellent way to separate yourself from the pack if Miami decides to switch up their starting lineup.
Value Plays
Al Horford (PF/C – BOS): $8,200 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel
It’s strange to call Horford a value play, but he’s been the best per-dollar player in this series. The big man has scored at least 29 DK points in 10 of his last 11 games, generating a 38-point average in that span. That’s unbelievable from a player in this price range, and he’s destroying Miami on both ends of the floor. It will be tough to fit in Tatum, Butler, and Horford, but that’s been the winning lineup for many of these single-game slates.
P.J. Tucker (SF/PF – MIA): $4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Tucker plays harder than almost anyone in the NBA, making him tough to fade for DFS. The defensive stud is being priced like a bench player, but he’s playing 30 minutes a game in this series. He’s also scored at least 29 DK points in four of his last seven games, and that has earned him a spot in the optimal lineup in each of those. You need cheap guys to fit in JB, JT, and Big Al, and Tucker is easily the best value out there in this price range.
Advantageous Pricing
- Duncan Robinson (SG/SF – MIA): $3,000 DraftKings
- Derrick White (PG/SG – BOS): $5,200 DraftKings
- Grant Williams (SF/PF – BOS): $7,000 FanDuel
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.