Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate, otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.

Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
I love the speed of James Cook, but I have a hard time believing a team that’s on the precipice of a Super Bowl will entrust a rookie with key carries on scoring opportunities right away. That will hurt Cook’s fantasy value this season and Devin Singletary earned that lead back role down the stretch last year.
– Joe Pisapia

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have surrounded Tua Tagovailoa with a top-tier supporting cast, but I am still skeptical that he is going to make the massive Year 3 leap this season. The fact that his draft classmates Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert took little to no time to break out in the NFL should not be ignored, nor should Tagovailoa’s lack of a vertical ball that figures to clash with Tyreek Hill‘s elite downfield prowess. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Jimmy Garoppolo be non-fantasy relevant in this offensive scheme despite elite weapons before, so consider me pessimistic that Tagovailoa makes a major splash as a late-round QB in 2022.
– Andrew Erickson

New England Patriots
If you’re looking at Jakobi Meyers’s ECR (WR51) and wondering why I picked him as overrated, it’s simple. He was not an efficient player last year despite finishing as the WR35. The Patriots brought in competition for targets this year. Meyers ranked 46th in yards per route run, 46th in fantasy points per route run, and 78th in fantasy points per target. With Tyquan Thornton and DeVante Parker now in town, I’ll take shots on other receivers in range of that range of a fantasy draft.
– Derek Brown

New York Jets
WR Elijah Moore studded it up over his final six games last year with 34-459-5 receiving on 51 targets (plus 4-35-0 rushing), and the Jets this offseason brought in RB Breece Hall and TEs C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert. Wilson has first-round draft capital, but he might not break 100 targets.
– Matthew Freedman

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Gus Edwards is a nice story – a former UDFA who topped 700 rushing yards for three straight seasons from 2019 to 2021 – but he’s now undraftable for fantasy. In his best season, 2021, Edwards finished RB35 in 0.5 PPR scoring. That low-end RB3 upside is gone now. J.K. Dobbins is Baltimore’s RB1, and the Ravens have added rookie Tyler Badie and veteran Mike Davis. Edwards is 27, doesn’t catch passes and is coming off a torn ACL.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is legit in real-life football but is vastly overrated in fantasy football. He’s the QB6 in early best ball ADP despite finishing as a top-5 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021. No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which suggest some regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The Bengals quarterback also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher.
– Andrew Erickson

Cleveland Browns
Donovan Peoples-Jones is intriguing because he’s big (6-2, 212 pounds) and fast (4.48). He’s also averaged 18.8 yards per catch and 11.6 yards per target over his first two NFL seasons. Thing is, he’s averaged exactly three targets over his first 26 games. He’s a deep-ball specialist, nothing more, and those guys just don’t have value in fantasy.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Pittsburgh Steelers
The fact the Steelers drafted George Pickens was a red flag for me regarding Chase Claypool. Yes, Diontae Johnson is nearing a new contract, but he could stay for the right price. Claypool has had some big games, but the lack of consistent floor and sporadic ceiling makes him a tough investment.
– Joe Pisapia

AFC South

Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce isn’t untalented, but he’s a slowish (4.59-second 40-yard dash) fourth-round rookie who never had even 800 scrimmage yards in a college season and is now on an offense likely to underwhelm.
– Matthew Freedman

Indianapolis Colts
Over the last three years, Matt Ryan has ranked third, first and 11th in pass attempts. His finishes in QB fantasy scoring over that stretch: 11th, 12th, 20th. Ryan’s recent production has been about quantity, not quality. He’s averaged 7.3 yards per attempt or less in each of the last three seasons, He’s also averaged 24.0 TD passes and 12.3 interceptions over that span. Those are mediocre numbers. The passing volume is going to shrivel with Ryan going from the Falcons to the much more competitive Colts, who feature the best running back in the league, Jonathan Taylor. Maybe Ryan’s efficiency ticks up with a better supporting cast, but the ceiling for Ryan is low-level QB2.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson had a wonderfully unexpected 2020 season and last year eventually found his way back into regular carries. Coming off an Achilles tear and theoretically, behind Travis Etienne, an overdraft of Robinson feels like reaching for the past. I would rather take a shot on the future with Etienne.
– Joe Pisapia

Tennessee Titans
A.J. Brown’s absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy success as a Titan. Even with Treylon Burks in the fold, it’s hard to get overly excited about the Tennessee QB in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses devoid of any elite, proven pass-catchers. He got exposed without offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and weapons last season in 2021, finishing the season with his lowest passer rating to date as a Titan (88.1, 23rd). Tannehill’s passer rating off play action throws also fell off (96.1 versus 109.5). 2022 is going to be a rude awakening for Tannehill, who has the largest cap hit in the NFL this year ($38.6M).
– Andrew Erickson

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Upgrading from Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater to Russell Wilson is great for Jerry Jeudy, but we have to remember that he is still an unproven fantasy commodity. Great route-running and separation skills aside, he hasn’t scored many fantasy points over the last two seasons. And that’s not the case with every Denver receiver, because Tim Patrick‘s production over the last two seasons earned him a three-year, $34.5 million contract extension. Even so, Jeudy should easily experience his best NFL season to date in 2022, but it may not be as great as some die-hard Jeudy stans would care to admit. There are a lot of weapons in Denver, and predicting Wilson’s best option on a week-to-week basis was often a challenge when it was only between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As with those Seahawks receivers, there are going to be inconsistent weeks from Jeudy. And his lack of red-zone usage makes him more susceptible to bust games without having a touchdown opportunity to fall back on. If you want an exemplary route runner that could lead his team in targets but likely disappoint in the touchdown column – then just draft Jakobi Meyers in the double-digit rounds.
– Andrew Erickson

Kansas City Chiefs
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s current ranking as the WR32 in ECR is due to the “Patrick Mahomes effect.” This is spicy for a player who has seen his yards per route run decrease in each of the last four seasons, and his YAC per reception also fall in every season of his career (per PFF). Unfortunately, TikTok legend status won’t fill up the stat sheet or earn him more targets. Bypass Smith-Schuster and target Skyy Moore (WR57) later in drafts.
– Derek Brown

Las Vegas Raiders
I would contend that Josh Jacobs isn’t overrated, and that he was merely limited by his role as an early-down grinder under Jon Gruden. Darren Waller, on the other hand, was a colossal disappointment to his investors last year. Waller was being drafted as early as the middle of the second round. Yes, he missed six games due to injury, but his per-game numbers dropped across the board. Waller finished seventh in fantasy points per game among TEs. Now, his target share is going to be jeopardized by the arrival of high-volume WR Davante Adams.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Los Angeles Chargers
Call me crazy, but I like my WR to have more than 4 great games every year. Mike Williams annually teases us and inevitably disappears due to injury or performance. I’d rather have the volume of a Darnell Mooney at the same ADP as the #1 in his offense, than the carousel of productivity that is Mike Williams.
– Joe Pisapia

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Coming off a season in which he managed to finish 32nd in breakaway runs and 37th in yards created per touch, Ezekiel Elliott is a stuck-in-the-mud start to the season away from ceding more work to Tony Pollard. The tread on the tires is wearing thin, so it’s time to target backs earlier or later with fresh legs and the juice to rip off big plays.
– Derek Brown

New York Giants
Sometimes you have to be content with a player returning to greatness on someone else’s roster. Saquon Barkley has missed so many games over the last few years and looks as though his best days may have been left behind in his rookie season. His enormous usage at Penn State should have been more of a warning sign, but the talent was too tempting. It’s time to stop giving into temptation.
– Joe Pisapia

Philadelphia Eagles
This is by no means an assertion that Dallas Goedert stinks. But the Free Dallas Goedert coalition, which had so many supporters when Zach Ertz was still a member of the Eagles, couldn’t have been thrilled with Goedert’s production after Ertz was actually traded last year, Goedert averaged 9.6 fantasy points a game in 0.5 PPR. That made him the TE4 over that stretch, but he fell far short of reaching the Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle tier. Goedert isn’t going to reach it this year either, now that the Eagles have welcomed aboard target magnet A.J. Brown.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Washington Commanders
The Commanders re-signed receiving RB J.D. McKissic and drafted early-down RB Brian Robinson with a top-100 pick. Antonio Gibson is unlikely to have opportunity commensurate with his talent.
– Matthew Freedman

NFC North

Chicago Bears
“Overrated” isn’t a fair label for Justin Fields. The Bears have only a small handful of fantasy-relevant players, and none of them neatly fit the category. Fields is only overrated in that he didn’t wow us in his rookie year. But how many rookie QBs do? Fields was handicapped by poor coaching and a mediocre supporting cast. Here’s to a brighter future.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Detroit Lions
Through three seasons, T.J. Hockenson has posted extremely similar counting stats to former 1st-round Lions tight ends, Eric Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew. Hockenson hasn’t been bad per se, but he has hardly lived up to being the 8th overall pick in the draft three years ago. Among 35 tight ends with at least 200 targets through their first 3 seasons, Hockenson ranks 26th in receiving yards and yards per target.
– Andrew Erickson

Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Fame quarterback. He’s also a fringe fantasy QB1 who will still be drafted rounds ahead of other QBs, on potentially better offenses, simply because of his resume. His 37 TDs last season propped up his middling 4.1K yards passing.
– Joe Pisapia

Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook will be 27 years old when the season starts, the new coaching staff has no history with him and backup RB Alexander Mattison is three years younger and has been highly effective as an injury fill-in. Cook could have fewer touches and less efficiency in 2022.
– Matthew Freedman

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons gave up an absurd amount of sacks last year and that offensive line has made little improvement year over year. Marcus Mariota has never developed as a passer at the NFL level as scouts had hoped. This is a terrible recipe for a rookie WR to make a fantasy impact, even one as talented as Drake London.
– Joe Pisapia

Carolina Panthers
Stop trying to make D.J. Moore WR1 SZN a thing. Because unless the prime Jake Delhomme is playing quarterback for the Panthers this season, the play under center in Carolina will prevent Moore from being anything more than a fantasy WR2 – as he has been every single season of his NFL career.
– Andrew Erickson

New Orleans Saints
Maybe Michael Thomas is still the same guy who had 149 catches for 1,725 yards in 2019. Who knows? He’s played seven games in the last two years and was out for all of 2021 with ankle problems. He’s 29 now and Drew Brees is no longer his quarterback. No one expects another 149-catch season, but it feels like we still might be overshooting the mark in expecting a WR2 season from a player who’s been out for so long and is returning to a totally different environment.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin is a top-12 receiver in terms of talent, but he suffered a torn ACL in December. It’s aggressively optimistic to assume he’ll be able to return in time to play the majority of the 2022 season.
– Matthew Freedman

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins is coming off a year in which his targets per snap fell to 64th, and his yards per route run dipped to 29th among wide receivers. On top of the declining efficiency, now he’s slated to miss six games of the season which is a tough pill to swallow for fantasy purposes. If the Cardinals further spread out targets in this offense this season, Hopkins will disappoint when he finally can suit up.
– Derek Brown

Los Angeles Rams
Allen Robinson looked completely cooked last season. We’ve been down this road in back to back years with A.J. Green and Julio Jones. A change of scenery, even to a theoretically good landing spot, does not necessarily mean a player will revitalize his career. Especially a soon to be 29 year old wire receiver entering his 9th NFL season.
– Joe Pisapia

San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel made me pay the price for overlooking him, as the talented wideout finished last season as the WR2 overall and in points per game (18.8). His receiving production alone would have him placed inside the top-10. But there’s reason to believe that Samuel won’t be able to sustain that same elite production from last season. Natural regression is firmly in play considering no WR earned more fantasy points above expectation than Samuel did in 2021. And that number doesn’t come as a surprise considering nearly 30% of Samuel’s fantasy points came from rushing alone. Or that Samuel scored three touchdowns of 75-plus yards.

Samuel’s usage in the San Francisco 49ers offense seems destined to change with him voicing displeasure with his RB/WR hybrid deployment. That’s also not factoring in the rushing attempts and short-to-intermediate targets that Samuel could lose with second-year mobile quarterback Trey Lance entering as the starter. Or increased target competition from a fully healthy George Kittle and out-of-the-doghouse Brandon Aiyuk. There’s no guarantee that Samuel sees a role – in fact very unlikely – that made him a fantasy revelation in 2021. His long injury track record dating back to college should also not be overlooked.
– Andrew Erickson

Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett turns 30 years old this year, and his alchemical connection with QB Russell Wilson has transformed to dust. With QBs Drew Lock and Geno Smith, Lockett might not crack 1,000 yards this year.
– Matthew Freedman

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Maher is an editor and content manager at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.