Each week, FantasyPros publishes a fantasy baseball trade chart. The chart contains player values designed to help you assess the overall weight of both sides of a trade.
The weekly trade charts also keep track of the changes in a player’s value from the previous week. But sometimes, the reasons for a change aren’t obvious. “Why is player X gaining three points in value this week when player Y, who had an even better week, remained the same?”
Good question, reader. There are many answers as to why any given player moves in value from one week to the next. And in this article, we’ll examine some of the biggest risers and fallers each week, and explain the movement.
Here are some of the most notable risers and fallers in the FantasyPros Week 4 Trade Value Chart:
Risers
Dylan Cease (SP – CWS). Week 4 Value: 18. Previous Value: 13. Change: +5
If you believe that Cease is as good as he has pitched thus far, then he’s still too low on the trade value chart. A 2.48 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 33.9% strikeout rate. All of his ERA indicators suggest that he’s actually pitched BETTER than his numbers show.
The key for him has been limiting hard contact. His 83.9 MPH average exit velocity and 24.6% hard hit rate are not only well below his career numbers, but they’re also among the best in MLB. He’s also raised his chase rate significantly.
He has justifiably moved higher in the chart, but the reason he’s not among the elite yet is because it’s hard to find a reason for his improved performance. Nothing looks appreciably different from last season. His command metrics are similar, his velocity is slightly down, and his spin rates are down on most of his pitches.
I’d buy Cease, certainly, but not at truly elite starter prices.
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA). Week 4 Value: 13. Previous Value: 8. Change: +5
Gilbert is the league leader in ERA (0.64) and has a 0.93 WHIP and so deserves a little more love in the trade market. But, savvy fantasy managers are being cautious before moving in to acquire him.
Gilbert’s xERA, FIP, and xFIP are 3.37, 3.04, and 3.41, respectively. His strikeout rate is 24.8% and his walk rate 7.3%, both respectable but both worse than he showed last season. His quality of contact indicators? Identical or worse than last year for the most part.
Regression is obviously coming, as it would for anyone with his numbers and a 99.2% LOB rate. But that doesn’t mean Gilbert is someone you should look to sell. It just means you should evaluate him appropriately in any deal, and hardly based on the numbers he has provided thus far.
Fallers
Marcus Semien (2B – TEX). Week 4 Value: 20. Previous Value: 25. Change: -5
Few fantasy managers expected Semien to hit 45 home runs again, but even fewer expected him to be slashing .163/.233/.217 at this point in the season. Semien has just five extra-base hits, all of them doubles, and his ISO is 0.54.
His Statcast page is a house of horrors. He ranks in the bottom six percent of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xWOBA, xBA, and xSLG.
It’s still early enough that a single hot week could wipe out Semien’s slow start entirely, and he earned a long leash with his miraculous 2021 season. But there is nothing to look at from this year that could make you feel confident that a turnaround is imminent. He will continue to slide each week until he shows signs of life.
Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT). Week 4 Value: 8. Previous Value: 13. Change: -5
Reynolds was supposed to be one of the most underrated players in fantasy. A lock for a plus batting average with homers and counting stats galore.
He did not get the memo. He’s slashing just .203/.314/.311 and his strikeout rate has ballooned to 25.6%.
Part of the problem for Reynolds is that although he’s swinging at an identical rate to last year, he’s chasing pitches out of the zone and laying off pitches in the zone more frequently. He’s also making far less contact when he does swing, and worse contact when he actually meets the ball.
Reynolds isn’t THIS bad, as his quality of contact metrics are much lower than he has ever shown in his career. But considering Reynolds has just a one-year track record, there’s no reason to seek him out in trades.
Joey Votto (1B- CIN). Week 4 Value: 2. Previous Value: 9. Change: -7
I won’t spend much time on Votto because you don’t me to tell you how bad he has been. .122/.278/.135 with a 32.2% strikeout rate. His bat looks slow and he looks lost at the plate.
The only reason fantasy managers have to still hold Votto is that we saw him come back from the dead once before. He’s the smartest player in the game, and if anyone can figure out how to turn things around, it’s him.
But there’s absolutely no reason to trade for him at this point.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.