MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Thursday (5/5)

We had some wacky things change on us on Wednesday with the rainouts on Tuesday, but we’re hoping for clear skies today! It’s been rainy all over the country, and rainouts will be a common theme for the next month. That can be infuriating from a DFS perspective, so it’s important to keep your eye on the weather!

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Strategy

This is a bizarre slate. We don’t have many elite pitchers out there, but we have many intriguing guys in sensational spots. All of them come with their fair share of risk, but it’s better than the alternative! With that in mind, let’s kick things off with one of the biggest surprises of the season!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Shane McClanahan (TB) at SEA

If we were to vote for AL Cy Young today, this guy would be near the top of the list. This dynamic left-hander has scored at least 29 FanDuel points in all five starts, generating a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 14.0 K/9 rate. That strikeout stuff is what makes him such an elite option for DFS, and this sophomore pitcher is scratching the surface of what he could become. Seattle is far from scary, too, with Mac dropping 43 FD points in their one matchup last season.

Jose Urquidy (HOU) vs. DET

Urquidy has struggled this season, but this guy has quietly been a beast for his entire career. Coming into the year, Jose had a 3.55 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. That WHIP is one of the best around, and it should be easy to limit baserunners against the Tigers. The Motor City Kitties rank 22nd in OPS, 23rd in K rate, and 21st in wOBA. The oddsmakers believe this is one of the best plays, too, with Urquidy entering this matchup as a -175 favorite in a game with a 8-run total.

GPP Recommendations:

Jose Berrios (TOR) at CLE

Berrios has been all over the map in terms of consistency, but this price makes him tough to fade. The right-hander has a 1.93 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his last three starts. That’s more indicative of the guy we’ve seen over recent years, with Berrios providing a 3.74 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 27 percent K rate since 2017. Cleveland has been a tough matchup this season, but this is one of the worst lineups in baseball outside of Jose Ramirez. That was on full display when Berrios had 47 FanDuel points in their most recent matchup.

Adrian Houser (MIL) vs. CIN

Using pitchers against Cincy in a cheat code. Having three wins at this point of the season is truly embarrassing, with the Reds ranked dead-last in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. That puts any pitcher in play against them, and Houser is a heck of an option. The righty has a 2.53 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first four starts. That form has carried over from last season, with Adrian amassing a 2.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his final 13 starts of last year. We also don’t mind that he enters this matchup as a -250 favorite, with Cincinnati projected for just 3.5 runs.

Top Lineup Stacks

Colorado Rockies (vs. Aaron Sanchez)

• Home (Coors Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/COL -140

It feels cheap to have the Rockies in here every day when they’re in Coors, but it’s the game you have to play. This lineup will be the highest-projected team on every slate if they’re in that hitter’s haven. They become even more attractive in matchups like these, with Aaron Sanchez accruing a 5.08 ERA and 1.57 WHIP since 2017. All of that has this offense projected for six runs!

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Aaron Civale)

• Road (Progressive Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/TOR -150

Civale had some high hopes coming into the season, but he’s been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. In fact, the righty has a 10.67 ERA and 1.95 WHIP so far this season. We do think he’ll drop those averages eventually, but it doesn’t seem likely against the Blue Jays. This was a Top-5 offense last season, and they’re definitely going to finish there again this year behind studs like Vlad Guererro Jr, George Springer, Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, Lourdes Gurriel, and Teoscar Hernandez.

Washington Nationals (vs. Antonio Senzatela)

• Road (Coors Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/COL -140

The hitting options on this slate aren’t great, but Washington could be a sneaky stack in Coors. This lackluster offense is projected for over five runs, and that’s common in such a spacious ballpark. They dropped a 10-spot in the first game of this series and still have a dangerous top half of the lineup behind guys like Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Nelson Cruz. It’s a relatively cheap stack, making them a fascinating option against a pitcher with a 1.83 WHIP.

Core Studs

• Soto hitting in Coors Field is a cheat code. This guy has been flirting with a .450 OBP over the last three years, and he’s going to go off in a place like Coors. He’s also been better against right-handers, and it’s scary to think what he’ll do against a guy with a 2.00 WHIP.
• Blackmon has always been a different player at home. He’s hitting over .300 at Ciirs Fied in his career, generating an OPS north of .900. That’s great news since he’s always better against righties, registering a .566 SLG and .905 against them this season.
• Trout has been the best hitter over the last decade, and he’s currently leading the league in slugging percentage and OPS. That’s standard stuff for the future Hall-of-Famer, and he should continue that success against a guy like Rich Hill. That gives Trout the platoon advantage, and Hill looks over the hill at the age of 42.
• Guerrero doesn’t need much explanation. This guy would have won AL MVP last season if Shohei Ohtani weren’t breaking barriers, tallying a .395 OBP, .593 SLG, and .989 OPS since the beginning of last year. We don’t anticipate Civale to slow him down, owning the 10.67 ERA we mentioned above.
• Chisholm is looking like a breakout for the Marlins. The blue-haired magician is third on this slate with 11.5 DK points per game. His power-speed combo is the primary reason why, and he’s always a better option against a right-hander. This is a lousy righty, with Nick Martinez owning a 1.68 WHIP this season.

Value Plays/Punts

• Mullins got off to a horrific start this season, but he’s starting to find it. The leadoff man for the O’s enters this matchup amid a five-game hitting streak, providing four extra-base hits in that span. Getting the platoon advantage against a weak righty is the icing on the cake, with Chris Archer posting an ERA north of 5.00 since his Tampa days.
• Odubel has always been a talented hitter, but it’s just a matter of consistency. He’s shown some of that in what’s becoming a career year, amassing a .304 AVG, .783 SLG, and 1.103 OPS. Those ridiculous averages aren’t sustainable, but it makes him tough to avoid against a guy who’s only thrown seven innings all year.
• Kepler is the definition of a platoon player. This guy rarely enters the lineup against lefties, but he’s always in the heart of it against righties. It’s easy to understand why when you see that he’s flirting with a .900 OPS against them over the last four years. We’re not worried about him facing Spenser Watkins, pitching to a 6.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP for his career.
• We had Tellez in this section on Wednesday, and we’re going back to the well after the performance of the season. The beefy first baseman had two dingers and eight RBI in that masterpiece. We talked about how dominant he was against righties yesterday, and the solid performances should keep flowing in against this disastrous Reds team.
• Arraez rarely homers, but there might be no better bet for a hit on this slate from a player this cheap. The utility man has a .312 AVG and .376 OBP for his career. He also bats leadoff against right-handers occasionally, and we’d love that against Watkins horrific career averages.

Thursday’s Hitter Strategy

We were able to provide you with some cheap pitchers, which will be critical since we want to stack the Coors Field game. That can always be a pricey proposition, but it’s the best strategy with so many question marks out there. With that said, we love lineups like the Angels, Brewers, Twins, and Astros. All of those are good mixes with the three teams we mentioned before, and lineup construction should be simple with so many value pitchers out there.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.