Thursday’s main slate is an unusual one. First, the larger prize pools at DraftKings are for the afternoon slate. However, since FanDuel’s main slate begins at night, the following analysis focuses on the night games. Therefore, the slate featured in this piece analyzes the four games starting with the Reds at Pirates at 6:35 pm ET on FanDuel. However, DraftKings doesn’t include the Reds at Pirates, leaving three games, with the first starting at 8:05 pm ET between the Royals and Rangers.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching options are whittled down to just two on a small slate. They're the most talented pitchers on the slate, but they carry a significant risk against two of the top offenses in baseball.
Thursday’s main slate is an unusual one. First, the larger prize pools at DraftKings are for the afternoon slate. However, since FanDuel’s main slate begins at night, the following analysis focuses on the night games. Therefore, the slate featured in this piece analyzes the four games starting with the Reds at Pirates at 6:35 pm ET on FanDuel. However, DraftKings doesn’t include the Reds at Pirates, leaving three games, with the first starting at 8:05 pm ET between the Royals and Rangers.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching options are whittled down to just two on a small slate. They're the most talented pitchers on the slate, but they carry a significant risk against two of the top offenses in baseball.
Pitcher Recommendations:
Dylan Cease (CWS) vs. NYY
Cease has been locked in this year. According to FanGraphs, in six starts lasting 34.0 innings, he's recorded a 2.38 ERA, 1.77 xERA, 1.00 WHIP, 34.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, and 29.9 CSW%. A matchup with the Bronx Bombers creates a risk, but it might be a sneaky good matchup.
Cease has held right-handed batters to a .275 wOBA since last year. Moreover, he's struck out 32.9% of the righties. Cease's dominance against righties is important because New York's lineup should include at least six right-handed batters. Finally, Betting Pros lists the Pale Hose as a -145 favorite, and the game's over/under at a ho-hum 8.0 runs.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) at LAD
Wheeler struggled out of the gate this year while building up velocity. Thankfully, he's rounded into great form. In his last two starts, he's held the opposition scoreless on seven hits, five walks, and 14 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. Additionally, he's had an excellent 15.5 SwStr%.
Tonight, Wheeler squares off with the Dodgers' deep and talented lineup. Obviously, facing their vaunted lineup can lead to a meltdown if he's not sharp. However, he's been dialed in, earning the benefit of the doubt on this particular slate that lacks reliable pitchers. Thankfully, the betting info isn't terrifying. The Phillies are +125 underdogs, but the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The White Sox benefit from facing Luis Gil in a fill-in start. The 23-year-old righty has been a roaring tire fire in Triple-A this season. Gil has a 9.53 ERA and 6.48 FIP in five starts lasting only 17.0 innings. So, a promotion to face a big-league roster is unlikely to fix Gil's struggles. Thus, it makes sense to stack against him.
- Home (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/TEX -135
The Rangers have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this year, ranking 27th in wRC+ (78) against righties. Thankfully, they have a get-right matchup tonight. This year, Jon Heasley is making his first start for the Royals after getting beaten up for a 4.91 ERA and 7.21 xERA in three starts for them last year. The young righty hasn't lit the world on fire in Triple-A in 2022, yielding a 4.44 ERA. As a bonus, when Heasley gets the hook, Kansas City's bullpen has been awful this year.
- Corey Seager has been one of the bright spots for the Rangers, with seven homers and a 121 wRC+ in 122 plate appearances.
- Nick Castellanos is a lefty-killer. Since 2019, he has had a .374 OBP, .297 ISO, and 156 wRC+ against them.
- Luis Robert is a do-it-all hitter. He has a 134 wRC+, four homers, and six stolen bases in 90 plate appearances in 2022. In addition, Robert has fared well in same-handed matchups in his career, owning a 115 wRC+.
- Brad Miller hasn't gotten into a groove yet this year. Nevertheless, he usually leads off for the Rangers against righties and has been an above-average hitter with the platoon advantage throughout his career.
- Picking Yasmani Grandal is a vote of confidence in his track record against righties. Since 2019, the switch-hitting catcher has had a .363 OBP, .206 ISO, and 117 wRC+against right-handed pitchers.
- Daniel Vogelbach is a great value on FanDuel. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has had a .357 OBP, .226 ISO, and 121 wRC+ against righties since 2019. Vogelbach has also been quite good this year, tallying a .213 ISO, 130 wRC+, and hitting five homers in 101 plate appearances.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The White Sox and Rangers are the primary sources for hitters on tonight's tiny main slate. However, hitters like Castellanos and Vogelbach are also appealing.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
