MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (5/8)

Rain has been causing chaos in DFS over the last week. We’re approaching double-digit postponements this week alone, and it’s something we have to monitor every day. The East Coast has been hammered by the thunderstorms, and we’re fortunate to have all the games played in a six-hour span for this card. That means we should know all the postponements beforehand, but it also means we should stay away if there are any question marks out there.

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Strategy

This is an exciting pitcher pool. We don’t necessarily have any big-name arms, but all of these guys have been amazing this season. There were plenty of good pitchers that didn’t make the cut, with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Patrick Sandoval all looking like sensational options as well. We actually wrote up Sandoval yesterday, but the rainouts have been causing disarray all week. With that in mind, hopefully, none of these arms have to deal with that crap, so, let’s get started with my favorite pitcher on the slate!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. MIA

Musgrove broke out last season, and his trajectory is still pointing up. The right-hander registered a 3.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP last season and now has a 4-0 record, 1.97 ERA, and 0.91 WHIP so far this year. We don’t anticipate those ridiculous numbers to sustain, but it’s clear this is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Miami is far from a scary matchup, too, with the Marlins ranked 23rd in K rate and 20th in runs scored. All of that has Musgrove entering this matchup as a -170 favorite in a game with a 6.5-run total.

Alek Manoah (TOR) at CLE

Manoah and Musgrove have the same flow chart. Both of these guys looked great last season but looked even better this year. Alek has a 4-0 record, accumulating a 1.45 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He’s done that damage against some of the best offenses in baseball, and Cleveland is far from that with their recent form. That’s why they have a projected run total below four in this spot.

GPP Recommendations:

Jake Odorizzi (HOU) vs. DET

It’s rare to see such a large favorite this cheap. The main reason is this matchup, with Detroit ranked 22nd in K rate and 27th in xwOBA. That should put Odorizzi in an ideal spot, with the right-hander collecting 22 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That would be an unbelievable total from a player this cheap, and Detroit is easily the best matchup of the bunch. In his most recent matchup with the Motor City Kitties, Odorizzi threw five scoreless innings.

Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. OAK

I’m prepared to get hurt again. Paddack has been tough to trust over the last two years, but this youngster looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball with the Padres. He appears to have recaptured some of that form, totaling a 3.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. The biggest reason we like him today is this matchup, facing an Oakland team that owns the worst lineup in baseball. That has Paddack entering this matchup as a -190 favorite, with the A’s projected for just three runs.

Top Lineup Stacks

Minnesota Twins (vs. Daulton Jefferies)

• Home (Target Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7 Runs/MIN -180

Stacking lineups against Oakland is going to work all season. This team is in full-on rebuild mode, and it has them sending out Triple-A pitchers every night. Jeffries is undoubtedly one of those, pitching to a 4.81 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. That’s right on par with his 4.91 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at Triple-A last year.

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Erick Fedde)

• Home (Angel Stadium)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/LAA -200

The Angels have been a Top-5 offense in nearly every metric this season, and they should continue that against Erick Fedde. The Nationals righty has a 4.68 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season. He posted those ugly numbers against Miami, Colorado, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, which is scary since LA is the far superior offense compared to those teams.

Houston Astros (vs. TBD?)

• Home (Minute Maid Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/HOU -200

We’re not exactly sure who’s going to pitch for Detroit, but that makes the Astros one of the best stacks out there. Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman are the keys to that stack, but you can’t forget about guys like Yuli Gurriel, Jeremy Pena, and Kyle Tucker. That means whoever takes the mound for Detroit is in big trouble, especially since it might be a minor league arm.

Core Studs

• Judge has been the best power bat in baseball this season. The big man ranks second on this slate with nearly 11 DraftKings points per game. It’s easy to see why when you see his 1.009 OPS. He should keep that going against Dane Dunning, who’s got a 4.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP for his career.
• We just mentioned that Judge is second in fantasy points per game because Buxton leads the league with 11.6 DK points per game. He did the same thing last year, and he’s simply the best player when he’s healthy. If you’re stacking the Twins, you have to have Bux at the heart of that build!
• Let’s keep the big dogs rolling with Yordan. This dude has been smashing the baseball since day one, accumulating a .374 OBP, .603 SLG, and .977 OPS this season. That’s right on par with his career averages, and he’s tough to fade with Houston being one of the best stacks of the day.
• Shohei is the most dynamic player in baseball, and he’d be tough to avoid if we’re going to stack the Angels. He’s killed right-handers throughout his career, flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS against them. He also has over 90 percent of his steals against them as well and should keep that going against a guy like Fedde.
• Kepler is the cheapest option of our cash game options, but his pricing makes no sense. This masher has a .860 OPS against righties over the last three years and always bats in the heart of this Twins lineup against righties. We love that against this awful Oakland staff, making Max the best value play of the day.

Value Plays/Punts

• Ozuna is one of the league leaders in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. That means the power numbers will come around, which is scary since this is a .450 SLG and .800 OPS guy. We also don’t mind that he gets the platoon advantage against an inexperienced lefty, with Aaron Ashby accruing a 1.45 WHIP this season.
• This Mancini pricing is insulting. This guy was in the home run derby last season, and he’s traditionally a .450 SLG player. That means he’s about $1,000 too cheap, and we like that he faces Zack Greinke, with the righty posting the worst K rate in baseball.
• Gallo is one of the best power bats in the game when he’s right, and it looks like things are starting to turn around. He’s homered in three of his last six games and could continue that going against a subpar righty.
• Walsh is my favorite value play in this Angels stack. Dating back to 2020, Walsh has walloped righties to the tune of a .384 OBP, .586 SLG, and .970 OPS. Those are brilliant averages from a player in this price range, especially since Walsh has a 1.462 OPS over the last three outings.

Sunday’s Hitter Strategy

The value on this slate is incredible. Lineup construction will be a breeze because we have plenty of value at the hitter and pitcher positions. That’s why we want to stack teams like the Yankees, Angels, Twins, Astros, and Rays. A combination of those five teams looks like the optimal build, mainly because there’s so much good value on those rosters!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.